ATLANTA FALCON’S NFL TEAM COLUMN

      

2008 NFL Draft Grade

Good Moves: The entire draft. In my opinion General Manager Tom Dimitroff deserves props for not listening to sideline warrior-fans (myself included!) and filled team needs, with players that THEY felt filled these needs.

Having a draft that included a #3 overall quarterback (QB) that has been criticized by every Draftnik, and 3 linebackers (LB) and 3 secondary personnel is not a sexy draft! But guess what, folks, this draft provided much needed depth and special teams help to a team that was decimated by injuries last year.

Bad Moves: The only bad move; and I hesitate to use the word “bad,” may be the drafting of only  one offensive linemen (Sam Baker) and no defensive tackles (DT). However, that being said, the fact that the Falcons didn’t draft heavily at these positions tell me that the coaching staff feels very comfortable with current depth and starters on both sides of the line. If this is true, then the lines are a position of strength.

2008 NFL Draft Picks:

3. Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College
Awesome pick—guess Tommy D. reads my column! The Falcons found their man, ignored the popular pick (Glenn Dorsey) and drafted their guy. I’m telling you now, Falcon Fans, this kid will be good if not great in a very short while.  Constantly you hear the “experts” bring up his 19 interceptions last year. Keep in mind those 19 interceptions were a result of 654 passing attempts! That’s more attempts than a Mike Martz offense throws. Also keep in mind, Ryan had no 1000 yd rusher, and none of his wide receivers (WR) were drafted. With all of these odds against him, this kid had Boston College as high ranked as #2 overall at one point. He’s a winner.

The Falcons will feed Michael Turner the ball, and have Roddy White go deep, and all will be good for Ryan. Great pick.

(Pick Grade: A+)

Note to Readers:

I nailed the Ryan pick. By the way, to the reader that questioned why I had Ryan in my draft. It’s because I’m really Mel Kiper. Not really, but I do have great hair.

That being said, I didn’t nail another pick! I did great projecting the positions that the Falcons would pick (that should count for something, right?). But I was beyond horrible at putting a name with those positions...

But I still have great hair, despite it all J

21. Sam Baker, Offensive Tackle (OT), USC
This move puzzled me at first, but then I realized that there was a run on first round offensive tackles,  and the Falcons had little choice but to trade up and nab Baker. Baker by the way was a projected top ten OT coming into this year, and is one of the best all round pass protectors in the NCAA.

He’ll be the starting left tackle (LT) from day one. Very good pick. I liked Jeff Otah better, but the Panthers grabbed him first. I’m giving a B+ to this pick, but reserve the right to change it at will if Baker starts right away!

(Pick Grade: B+)

37. Curtis Lofton, ILB, Oklahoma
What a pick! The Falcons need an inside linebacker for when Keith Brooking moves on. That being said, a strong showing by this stud may cause the Falcons to move on from Brooking. What I love about Lofton is that he can play all three linebacker positions. With the Michael Boley arrest, we could see Brooking moved to the Will LB spot, and Lofton starting in the middle from day one.

(Pick Grade: A)

68. Chevis Jackson, CB, LSU
A very solid Cover 2 cornerback, who flashed some big play ability at LSU. Some criticize the Falcons for reaching, but do you ever really reach for big strong cornerbacks that fit your system?

(Pick Grade: B)

84. Harry Douglas, WR, Louisville
I really like this pick. He’s a bit undersized, but has stick-em hands and despite weighing less than 180 lbs, is unafraid to go across the middle. He’s great value at this point in the draft.

                        Receptions       Yards             YPC        Long      TDS

The above table are Douglas’ receiving stats his junior and senior season. The most important stat to notice is the Yards Per Catch (YPC) average (18.1 & 16.3). That’s a first down and a half every catch. He’s clutch. Potential steal at this pick. At worse, the Falcons drafted themselves a helluva a slot guy.

 (Pick Grade: A)

98. Thomas DeCoud, FS, California
Fluid athlete at the Safety position, possessing good enough speed to cover the slot and tight ends. Also a very good run tackler—who loves to lay the wood! Great value at the bottom of Round 3 at a position of need.

(Pick Grade: A)

138. Robert James, OLB, Arizona State
Only 5’10” and 219 lbs, James is an undersized but athletic linebacker. I thought they reached for him, with DeMario Pressley and Marcus Howard (my pick for the Falcons) on the board. But that being said, it appears the scouting department liked him.  

(Pick Grade: C)

154. Kroy Biermann, DE, Montana
I nearly choked on my popcorn when this pick was made! Why the hell did the Falcons take a 6’2” 246 lb. undersized end from a tiny school, I asked myself. Then I looked him up. (God I love Google!) This midget defensive end can also play outside linebacker, had 14 tackles for loss and 11 sacks in 06. He then proceeded to tally 18.5 tackles for loss and 16 sacks in 07. That’s big numbers in any conference.

Bottom line: great special teams’ addition and situational rusher for a low cost.

Great scouting. Low risk/ High reward pick. Fifth round is where you take chances.

 (Pick Grade: A)

172. Thomas Brown, RB, Georgia
Probably the most surprising pick that the Falcons made. But from a teambuilding perspective the pick makes sense. Brown is a tough, do-it-all back, who catches very well out of the backfield and will do whatever it takes to get on the field. Anyone remember a guy named Kevin Faulk from Dimitroff’s former employee, the Patriots? Another 5’8” 200 lb undersized, do-it-all running back that has 3 Super Bowl rings.

Solid depth at running back for the Falcons. Watch this kid.

(Pick Grade: A)

212. Wilrey Fontenot, CB, Arizona
Great pick. Started alongside Antoine Cason. Undersized, but can man the dime.

(Pick Grade: B)

232. Keith Zinger, TE, LSU
Didn’t know who the hell he was to be honest. May have to play special teams to get any playing time. But in the seventh round, it’s hard to fault any pick.

(Pick Grade: B)

Overall I’m giving this draft an A-, with the strong potential of an upgrade to A+.  The most refreshing part of watching the draft—and I watched it in entirety—is that the front office was quick and decisive on all of their picks. You could easily tell that the scouting department had done their job, and the decision makers utilized their data. Secondly, all the positions picked filled a need.

Falcon Fans, I’d love to hear your thoughts and comments regarding the Falcon’s draft. Send me an email at MSalmon71@gmail.com and I’ll post them in my next column.

SUGGESTED SONG AND MUSING FOR THE WEEK:

“The Man Comes Around,” by Johnny Cash.

Maybe Vick should have listened to these lyrics:

There's a man goin' 'round takin' names.

An' he decides who to free and who to blame.

Everybody won't be treated all the same.

There'll be a golden ladder reaching down.

When the man comes around. 

My only hope is that the infamous “Dog Killa” was forced to watch the Falcons draft his replacement while he was making my personalized license plate that says “FUVICK.”

 Back to the Top

FREE AGENCY UPDATES

I love the calm and cool approach that the new General Manager (GM), Tom Dimitroff has approached the free agency period. Quite the opposite from years past when marginal players could expect a huge payday, by simply sitting down to dinner with Falcons owner, Arthur Blank. Don't believe me, huh? Names: Peerless Price or Jason Webster ring any bells?

Instead Dimitroff and staff appear to have targeted specific free agents, and rather than "blow up" the team, have decided to utilize their inherited talent. This is a welcome approach for Atlanta Falcons, who have unfortunately grown accustomed to the seemingly never-ending processions of scheme and personnel changes on both sides of the ball. Stability, it would seem, is the mantra of the Dimitroff era.

The emphasis on stability by Dimitroff is best signified by the trade of talented but mercurial cornerback, DeAngelo Hall, to the Oakland Raiders. I'm all for that trade by the way. Get rid of the cancers and thugs and start anew!

 Perhaps the most important free agent signing was the re-signing of quarterback (QB), Chris Redman. Redman was the lone semblance of stability from last year's otherwise implosive season. The return of Redman provides even stronger evidence that the Falcons intend to draft an early round QB and let him sit behind Redman for a year, rather than thrust him into live-action immediately. The Falcons let go of Joey Harrington, but predictably resigned him. This is not surprising considering that his career gained a bit of rejuvenation under Mike Mularkey during Harrington's stint with the Miami Dolphins.

The Falcons also agreed to terms with former San Diego Chargers running back (RB) Michael Turner. Turner, a 5'10" 237 lb. power running back (RB), will be the focal point of offensive coordinator's (OC) Mike Mularkey's power run and vertical pass style of offense. Signing of Turner also symbolized the death knell of finesse football in Atlanta, as the Falcons simultaneously released former starting RB Warrick Dunn, a 5'9" 180 lb. scatback. Turner, a former backup to Ladanian Tomlinson, is a rare blend of speed and size (4.4 forty yard dash) who will be paired with speedster, Jerious Norwood, to potentially provide the Falcons one of the more potent rushing attacks in the NFL.

Other signings included former New York Jets Safety (S) Erik Coleman, and former Houston Texan Cornerback (CB) Von Hutchins and Tight End (TE) Ben Hartsock. Coleman will compete for the starting Free Safety position vacated by departing free agent Chris Crocker. Coleman makes the potential "stud alert" watch, having compiled back to back over 100 tackle seasons in 2005 and 2006. Deactivated by Jets head coach Eric Mangini during the 2007 season, it was clear that Coleman, while young and talented, did not fit into the long range plans of the Jets. Perhaps the change in scenery will prove to be the Falcon's gain.

Hutchins will provide much needed depth to the cornerback position, and has experience in the cover-2 coverage that the new coaching staff will employ. Good, solid player. With the trade of DeAngelo Hall, a deep rotation is vital to any team success.

While surely one of the least glamorous free agent signings, the adding of TE Ben Hartsock is huge for the Falcons. Hartsock is a blocking TE, and a very good one at that. OC Mike Mularkey's offensive scheme requires the TE to provide an extra blocker in power running formations, and Hartsock was the best option available.

While no free agent offensive linemen have been signed, the Falcons had FA offensive tackle Maurice Williams in for a visit. As of yet, he is still unsigned. Sadly, there will be no Max Starks or Flozell Adams in a Falcon uniform, as Starks was tagged a transition player by the Steelers, and Adams was resigned by the Cowboys to a long-term deal.

It's looking more and more like the Falcons are choosing to re-build the offensive line through the draft. Which makes sense considering the depth of quality Offensive linemen available at all positions.

The latest Falcon addition has been to the defensive line with the recent signings of defensive tackles (DT) Kindal Moorehead and Rashad Moore and defensive end Simon Fraser. Moorehead, 6'2" 285 lbs, will provide is a penetrating undertackle (UT) type, who can probably swing outside on occasion in the Mike Smith defensive scheme that calls for massive DEs and DTs.  Moore, 6'3" 325 lbs, is a classic run-stopping big bodied DT. Fraser, 6'6" 300 lbs, is probably the most intriguing of the three signings, as he was a 3-4 DE with the Cleveland Browns, who showed nice quickness and penetrating ability. He'll probably move primarily to the inside with the Falcons.

A review of our current roster shows a nice mix of size and speed in the defensive line rotation. Additionally, Moorehead, Jon Babineux & Fraser also have the versatility to move outside to DE, which allows Van Gorder/Smith to employ the large Dline look they used at Jacksonville, that often lined up the 295 lb Paul Spicer at end to provide additional run support.

In conclusion, while perhaps not the most scintillating of off-seasons for the Falcons, this free agency period may prove to be one of the most rewarding ever.

UPDATED MOCK DRAFT

This is it, Folks. No more mocks.  This is the one where the great m.e. salmon, part-time Blogger and Draftnik, lays out his master plan for all to criticize and embrace.

Not a lot of differences. The biggest one is that the Dolphins selected Jake Long over Matt Ryan. Bill Parcells is not in Miami for the long haul, and has little patience for a rookie QB. He'll want an immediate contributor. This is evidenced by the huge splash that Miami has made in Free Agency particularly on the defensive side. That's an important note, because that explains why Jake Long was the first overall pick.

In my opinion Glenn Dorsey is no longer an option for the Rams and Falcons due to injury concerns. And, quite frankly, how many teams want to tie up $20 million of cap room for an average size DT who didn't have double digit sacks on the collegiate level? Let the Rams waste their draft pick on Dorsey.

My mock draft has the Falcons addressing the following positions: Both sides of the line, QB, outside linebacker (OLB), CB, and adding an additional receiving threat.

1. Miami Dolphins: Jake Long, OT Michigan (I GOT THIS ONE RIGHT!!)

• The emergence of Vernon Carey at the left tackle position, allows the dolphins to start Long at RT, if need be, rather than rush him into the more difficult LT spot
• Last year's starting RT, LJ Shelton, has been allowed to hit the Free Agent Markey
• Parcells is a 3-4 Guy and he wont draft Dorsey or Ellis
• Chris Long is a possibility but Parcells 3-4 doesn't call for a super stud 3-4 DE, just a big bubba to tie up blockers
• Got lots of picks, the recent signing of young veteran Josh McNown, indicates an open QB competition between last year's second rounder,  John Beck
• Potential franchise OTs are never a reach

2. St. Louis Rams: Chris Long, DE Virginia

• Former pick was Glenn Dorsey, but recent injury concerns will drop Dorsey out of the top five.  Chris Long will couple with  young stud Adam Carriker and elevate the Ram's DLine to new levels
• Can play 4-3 DE or 3-4 OLB, providing much desired versatility to the Rams Defense
• Could also go Sedrick Ellis here or Vernon Gholston

Round 1 pick 3. Atlanta Falcons: Matt Ryan, QB Boston College

• The signing of Michael Turner ends possibility of Darren McFadden pick
• The new GM, McKay and Coach Smith are going to build the franchise around a new face to get us past the Vick Era
• Mularkey will love his athleticism and leadership ability
• Everyone is going to clamor for Sedrick Ellis, but he's a one gap UT not a big huge Jacksonville DT
• Won't start initially but could by midseason, most likely he sits behind Redman
• Matt Ryan will be a great NFL QB and all of the haters will be singing a different tune very soon.

Rd 2: Gosder Cherilus (#35), OT Boston College 6'7" 325 lbs.

• We need bookend OTs this year, so I predict we'll get them in the first two rounds of this draft
• Gosder is clearly a RT--and possibly the best RT prospect in the draft
• With the early second round pick acquired from the Raiders we have an excellent chance to nab him
• Is a mauler and fits well into our power scheme.
• Can play OG as well, and has LT experience
• Will be a Rookie Starter

Round 2 Anthony Collins, OT Kansas 6'6" 310 lbs

• Might end up being a steal.
• Played excellent in a pass first offense.
• Has great foot work and size
• Rangy and needs work in the run block game, but at LT he's getting paid to protect the QB
• Could be rookie starter.

Round 2: Kendall Langford, DE/DT Hampton 6'6" 290 lbs

• When we speak about a Jacksonville type DT/De this guy size wise fits the bill.
• Plays either DE or DT
• Has the frame to bulk up and move inside permanently
• In my opinion will be a Paul Spicer type that can play DE on run downs and move inside for passing downs, due to his size speed ratio
• Valuable "swing man" type that we've lacked in the defensive line rotation, since Travis Hall
• Could be "Boom or Bust" guy since he played at D2 level

Round 3: Marcus Howard OLB/DE, UGA 6'2" 245

• Can't tell me Van Gorder doesn't know about this guy.
• Can play OLB, but also like Boley can on occasion put his hand down and play the Elephant end rusher
• Speed will aid in STs initially as well.
• Think Demarrio Williams with better size. Not sure if he has the ball skills to play OLB full time, but as a situational pass rusher and STs demon he should contribute immediately.

Round 3 Antuan Molden CB Eastern Kentucky 6'1"195

• Nice size for cover 2 and can hit and run with anyone

Round 4 Jack Williams CB Kent State 5'9" 181 lbs

• Raw prospect
• Hard hitter despite size
• Will get exposed in man coverage, as he is not a bump and run corner but could be very effective in a cover 2 zone as he's a good tackler with a knack for causing fumbles
• Has run as low as a 4.32 according to some sites, and 4.25 to others. Didn't do that at combine
• should be a very effective returner and special teams contributor

Round 5: Johnny Dingle 6'3 270 lbs, WVU

• Tough bucket pail player who'll play special teams or whatever is asked of him
• Played DT all but one year at WVU
• Will drop as scouts note him lacking "mental" capacity to digest NFL playbook and will be 24 years old--no behavioral or disciplinary issues, however
• Great rotational depth and ST help
• Lots of upside: say what you will but 48 tackles (19 for losses), nine sacks, two forced fumbles and a recovery in 13 games, speak volumes to me

Round 6: Gary Barnridge TE/WR Louisville 6'5" 243

• We talked to him at the combine
• Not a burner, but not terribly slow at 4.63
• Might be more utilized as Brian Finneran type possession wr type as he has great body control and good hands
• Low risk pick in the sixth

Round 7 : Fernando Velasco OG/C, UGA 6'3" 318

• At 6'3" 318 lbs Velasco is huge and can play either OG or C.
• Provides immediate depth to the rotation
•  He stout at the Point of attack and won’t be bowled over by larger NFL defensive tackles
• Could compete with last year’s sixth round draft pick, Doug Datish and/or incumbent starter, Todd McClure for starting position or provide a very versatile backup.
•  McClure, by the way, who is only 6’2” and 290 lbs most likely will be cut or traded to a team that runs a zone blocking offense. McClure is not a good fit in any offensive line that runs any scheme other than zone blocking.
• Velasco might end up being one of those good news stories

Round 7: Nate Garner OT/OG Arkansas 6'7" 334

• Bad forty times and struggle against speed rushers will both drop Garner's stock and force him inside to G
• Low risk/high reward type player at this late in the draft.
• Will spend year on Practice Squad getting stronger.

So there you go faithful readers. I've laid out the best way for our beloved Falcons to rebuild. Sorry for the long absence; but work and injuries (shoulder surgery) took their toll. While you may not agree with me on all picks, I'm sure that we both agree that the future is bright. With the number 3 pick, 3 second rounders, and 2 thirds it's safe to say that we'll come away with some good players.

Lastly, I challenge all who read this to email me your thoughts/criticisms at MSalmon71@gmail.com . After the draft we'll see who was right.

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Further Descent into Hell: Falcons Blown Out

It's hard to say much after this loss. The Falcons have passed from the purgatory of an already wretched season into the 9^th circle of Hell after Sunday's humiliating loss, 37-3, to division rivals, Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Not only did the wingless birds get beat, they were abused. The offense managed only 5 first downs, and while the defense actually played well, their efforts were in vain. Chris Redman's interception returned for a touchdown by Tampa Bay a minute into the game, set the tone for an uninspired performance of an offense that lost the ball 4 times inside its 30 yard line, and simply couldn't convert on 3^rd downs.

Speaking of Redman, the default Post-Petrino starting quarterback, he mustered a sterling 0.0 quarterback rating on Sunday. I'm not sure I've ever seen that. In laymen's terms that is three and out and you can't move the ball on offense. In technical terms, Redman completed 4 of 15 passes for 34 yards and 2 interceptions, which was easily one of worst, if not the worst, quarterback performances in NFL history. For you fans that may be arithmetically challenged, those stats translate to about 2.3 yards per pass completion, or less than 10 feet.

Surely there are no longer fanatics that still believe the Falcons should not draft quarterback in the first round of the upcoming draft? If so, immediately self-medicate yourself with copious amounts of paxil, whiskey & razorblades in equal fashion, while watching a continuous video loop of Bobby Petrino performing the "pig sooey" to remedy your delusional thoughts, and borderline  paranoid schizophrenia, as you are nearing a complete and utter separation from reality.

Fanatics, embrace our first round pick, Matt Ryan, and do not crucify him for his occasional faults and inevitable growing pains. Sorry for the tough love, but the team can't wait until 2009. Folks, I know many of you are going to argue that it's not the quarterback that matters, rather you say that it's the offensive line protecting him that is most important. I'll grant you that the offensive line is very important, but let's look closer at what the quarterback position really entails. Let' look beyond mere stats and delve into  the intangible concepts of leadership, momentum and team identity generated from the quarterback position, but lacking in our current trio of quarterbacks.

Chris Redman was sacked only once Sunday, but was harassed constantly by the Tampa defense. This theme has been consistent in the last 5 or so Falcons' games. Is it the offensive line? Or is it the quarterback? I argue it's the quarterback. Statistically there is no way to even justify Redman's performance. Nor has there been any way to statistically justify the past performance of  former starters, Byron Leftwich and Joey Harrington. But if you peer a bit more at  all three quarterbacks closely, you see an amalgamation of bad mechanics (Leftwich), poor decision making (Harrington) and lack of physical skills (Redman), which is resulting in a season that has devolved beyond a comedy of errors, that was sporadically filled with glimpses of hope, into a full blown horror show which has increased rates of depression of and suicidal thoughts of  Falcon Fans worldwide.

Petrino is the root of the quarterback debacle. His inability to mentor, coach and manage Harrington in his offensive system, coupled with his lack of patience and respect for his players, Harrington in particular, has crippled the Falcons' offense. He had no faith in his quarterbacks, and as a result neither does the rest of the team. Big accusations, I know, but true ones. Petrino's actions have destroyed the psyche of Joey Harrington, Byron Leftwich and Chris Redman.

A quarterback's greatest weapon is his confidence and poise under duress. And the truly great ones spread that confidence and poise to the entire team. It is the from the quarterback, the Field Marshal, that a team finds its inner resolve. He is the extension of the head coach, the operational end of the spear. A confident and capable quarterback inspires offensive linemen to block a little longer; the running backs to fight for a bit more for the extra yard and the defensive team to hit just a bit harder. Under such a leader the team knows every time the ball is in his hand they can score. Our team has no such inspiration and direction, and it shows in the final scores.

Case in point: Brett Farve. Once he left our beloved Falcons, he was coddled, scolded and mentored, but never yanked publicly or humiliated by Mike Holmgreen and his Green Bay staff. Holmgreen believed in an big-armed, bad decision-making country boy; stuck with him when he threw a dumb interception--scolded him like any caring father should. Holmgreen's emotional investment has been repaid many times over. His legacy is secure, as  Farve is the heart of Green Bay. Who is the heart of the Falcons?

Great quarterbacks are born with potential. But great  coaching and mentoring transforms that potential into results.

It's time to clean house. Burn the old one down, and rebuild on the lot. Petrino is gone and the damage is done. And it's time to start with the face of the franchise. Draft a quarterback in the first round. There are three great prospects (Ryan, Brohm and Andre Woodson) in this draft. Until after the combine there is no way to predict whether one of the three are worth a top 5 pick. That is irrelevant. Regardless of draft position the Falcons must overdraft,  trade down, trade back into, trade away future picks; even sell Rich McKay's soul (how much we would get is debatable) if necessary to land one of these three prospects. Find our heart, and treat it with care and consideration.

Sustained success of both NFL teams and armed forces start with a General; a public and undisputed operational leader  that provides strategic guidance and direction to the troops. We must hire a proven NFL head coach or offensive coordinator, with a track record  of developing NFL quarterbacks, and give him the Franchise/troops. The head coach should address the media, not Arthur Blank. In fact Blank, should get the hell off of the sidelines and back into the owner box. The cessation of meddling from an obsessive compulsive and anal team owner would be a step in the right direction.

Secondly, charge the new head coach with the care and feeding of our Franchise rookie quarterback; allow the coach to begin the transformation of  the neophyte into a worthy Field Marshall; the business end of  the head coach's spear, capable and confident enough to transform off-field strategy into on-field success.

Currently on our roster there is no heir apparent to the crown abdicated by Vick. There is no  dauphin , or successor, with the ability to elevate a franchise from the bowels of obscurity. No Field Marshal to lead the troops into battle. Our spear has no point.

While Petrino should pay both Harrington and Leftwich  mental anguish and suffering compensation for his actions, it is  time for the Falcons to cut them both. Neither have the moxie to rally our team. Let the head coach find the veteran quarterback of his choice to temporarily run the team or mentor the rookie. The trio of misfits currently on our roster are tainted and  beyond redemption. They, like many other rancid and overpaid veterans, are lingering remnants of a diseased age should be purged with much haste.

Lastly, let the kid grow. Peyton Manning and Troy Aikman were both atrocious in their rookie seasons, as were there teams. But neither their head coaches, Jim Mora and Jimmy Johnson, lost faith in their charges, and it paid off in Super Bowls and eventual Hall of Fame inductions.  Hell is vast and comprised of many rings. And it is a long and arduous journey from its depths.

Next Week's Prediction: Arizona 27, Atlanta 3

Falcon Fans, unfortunately I'm getting pretty good at predicting the next Falcon Blowout. A regular Nostradamus, if you will. The good news is that the season is almost over, and Petrino is already scouting his next collegiate job, while pledging his eternal love to the Arkansas boosters.

Life After Pigtrino: Search for Falcon's New Head Coach and revised Mock Draft 1.1

It’s really too soon after Bobby Petrino’s untimely exit to be guessing at the Atlanta Falcons up-coming draft picks. But, as a fan, you almost feel compelled to churn out an up-dated “Post-Petrino” mock draft. Very much like demonic possession, one finds themselves eerily tapping away on the keyboard, and looking up early 2008 NFL draft projects for the horrid Falcons. Creepy, but true.

CURRENT NEWS:  “Veteran NFL coach and Hall of Fame candidate Emmitt Thomas was selected as the Falcons interim head coach Wednesday after the abrupt resignation of Bobby Petrino. Thomas has been a member of the Falcons coaching staff since 2002.”

                        -Provided courtesy of Atlanta Falcons official website

FREE AGENCY

I still stand by my original statement that the Falcons will be extremely active in the upcoming off-season. General Manager, Rich McKay, particularly after both the Vick and Petrino debacles has to produce at the least a competitive team. Hard to fault Blank who has supported McKay’s decisions regarding the hiring of both Jim Mora, Bobby Petrino, extended the contract of ex-quarterback, Michael Vick and in general been fiscally supportive of McKay’s free agent (FA) pursuits—many of which have been busts.  As former owner of Home Depot, one has to believe that Blank wants a return on his investment sooner rather than later. And has grown impatient as well.

My first 08 prediction is if the Falcons finish less than 8-8, McKay will be fired.

However, depending on which coach they hire, he may be gone before the draft. If Blank can lure a hall of fame coach like Bill Cowher, Bill Parcells or Marty Schottenheimer to Atlanta, then it’s safe to say that he’ll fire McKay and hire a personnel guy to run the show.

McKay’s work is cut out for him.  

There are a lot of holes on this roster. Quarterback, running back, offensive line and the safety position all have aging or ineffective players. Personally, I think McKay uses free agency to immediately infuse the offensive line with size and ability. Offensive tackles (OT) are expensive, but I highly doubt that McKay or the next coach has any desire to enter next season without a solid and large veteran OT on next years squad after this years dismal offensive output.

My money is still on us targeting one of two FA OTs: Flozell Adams, OT Dallas Cowboys and Max Starks, OT, Pittsburgh Steelers. Personally I think Flozell is our pick. He's 32, already an established and dominant veteran and will be an unrestricted free agent (UFA) and he will be seeking a big payday. In my opinion the cowboys let him walk as they have Pat McQuiston and Doug Free waiting in the wings. Both are younger, cheaper and have high ceilings. Additionally you could see the Cowboys moving Leonard Davis, who's finally living up to his original high draft status, over to LT. And lastly the Cowboys have an extra mid-first round pick obtained from the Cleveland Browns in the Brady Quinn deal, and this upcoming draft has a deep and talented pool of offensive linemen 

Both Adams and Starks are huge (6'7" and 340 and 6'8" 340 respectively), which definitely fits the mold of the type of OLmen that Petrino wants. Starks is only 25, whereas Adams is 32, so age will certainly factor in the falcons’ decision. I can almost hear you all muttering under your breath as you read this article, “No way we pick Adams over Starks. Starks is huge, young and possibly cheaper. You, m.e., are truly an idiot!”  But, please, halt the mob, put down the pitchforks and let me explain why Adams is the better FA acquisition for the Falcons:

1.      Flozell is a proven commodity; Starks is not. Look at Romo's numbers—hell, look at the Cowboys offensive output in general. I rest my case.

2.      Starks is much younger at 25, but he can't even beat out Willie Colon, a second year man from Hofstra. I don't think McKay dare chances signing a potential FA bust after the last couple of years of Falcon mediocrity and drama.

3.      Adams is 32, and probably has 3-5 years at least of good football ahead of him. That will allow us the luxury of developing young talent behind him, and not feeding a draft pick to the wolves and hoping they can protect a rookie or FA quarterback.

4.      It's a much easier transition from college to the NFL at the OG position. I think Forney is gone at RG, but I disagree with other posters that think Alan Faneca will be our priority FA target. I think we will draft Forney's replacement, and plug him like we did Blalock.

And, yes, I know some rookie left OTs start and excel right away, but plenty do not. Todd Mandarich comes to mind. Don’t remember him? How about Robert Gallery, the former number 2 overall pick for the Oakland Raiders? He was thrown to the wolves on a bad team, as their starting left tackle. Gallery now is an extremely over-drafted and overpaid guard.

Another position I think that we look to fill via FA is the Safety position. Dallas Cowboy Ken Hamlin will be an UFA. The cowboys probably will try to sign him long term, but at 26 and one of the best FSs available, Hamlin may shop himself to the highest bidder, however, he may be to pricey for the Falcons. But he could be a possibility as he has struggled in coverage at times and again the Cowboys have a lot of draft picks. On the coverage struggle issues, I think that isn’t a determent for the Falcons, as defensive coordinator, Mike Zimmer, plays a lot of man coverage with the cornerbacks and this would allow Hamlin to be an enforcer for receivers going across the middle, and an extra linebacker when we put 8 in the box to stop the run.

Another intriguing FA would be the Pats FS/CB Randall Gay.   He has been a versatile player for the Patriots making starts at both FS and CB as needed. A former UDFA,   G ay may be looking to cash in and the Patriots may let him walk, as they have a great history of developing FAs. G ay would be an improvement over Crocker IMO and if Darren Stone may be ready to step into the SS position next year providing an enforcer type athlete in the secondary.

Hamlin is my preference, but I also like Gay a lot. Rather, I like the type of player that Gay is; he’s hardnosed, team oriented, and versatile. Injuries happen and the flexibility to move players around is a great commodity for any team.

One thing is certain. We have a lot of holes and we could use about 15 draft picks to fill them all. Unfortunately a salary cap exists and we can only sign so many picks and free agents. So in this mock, I orchestrated an immediate triage to get the Falcons to at least a competitive level by focusing on versatility. Specifically I intentionally used the ability to play multiple positions as discerning criteria for my OL choices. All can play multiple positions along the OL, and at the very least all should provide much needed size and depth.

For my initial mock, I introduce no trades at all and assume that we receive a 4th  round compensatory pick for recently departed, FA Patrick Kerney (might even by a 3^rd round pick). Another assumption I am positing is that NE Patriots will be picking 2^nd overall (via San Fran). If my assumptions particularly the initial draft order is off, then this mock will need revising. Here are our projected picks:

Round 1

Round 2

Round 2(From Houston)

Round 3

Round 4

Round 4(Kerney)

Round 5

Round 6

Round 6(Rossum)

Round 7

It's important to point out that it's way too early to do a completely credible mock, as many of these players will rise and fall based upon combine results and team needs. So I simply drafted in areas that I felt that we were weakest at.

NEW HEAD COACH CANDIDATES & DRAFT/FREE AGENCY EFFECT

Few things have changed post-Petrino, as we still have gaping holes on either side of the ball. I do think that we won’t hire a gimmick offensive coach. So don’t expect the “run and shoot” offense to appear in Atlanta. I also think that the next coach may well be a veteran coach like Cowher or Schottenheimer. If the next coach is a coordinator, he’ll be Blank’s choice—not McKay’s.

The same holds true with my Free Agent projections. We have holes, regardless of new coach.

The only current coordinators that I feel have a chance at the job would be Mike Singletary, Asst. Coach of the San Francisco 49ers, and Josh McDaniels, offensive coordinator of the New England Patriots. Note I said that have a chance. Truthfully, I’m not positive that the chance actually exists. While I know Blank supposedly loved Singletary and wanted to hire him in place of Petrino, yet ceded to the wishes of McKay, you have to wonder if that was the whole story. Singletary is truly a respected NFL man, both as a player and a coach, but has his presence in San Fran really produced great results? 

To put it in perspective for you, the 49ers finished 26^th in total team defense last year. This year they drafted potential rookie of the year, linebacker Patrick Willis, signed big-time cornerback, Nate Clements to a huge contract, and added stud, safety free agent, Michael Lewis, to their defense. Guess what their ranking is? The 49ers are 22^nd overall in team defense and give up over 24 points per game.

Guess who is in charge of the defense? You got it. Mr. Singletary. Now one could argue that they actually moved up 4 spots in the ranking. I argue that they should have with the talent drafted and the quality of free agents. Last year’s squad gave up almost 26 points a game. Again one could argue that was an improvement. Again I argue, with the type of draft and free agent signings that had a better improvement should have occurred.

Is it Singletary’s fault? Not all of it, I’m sure. But is he some genius coach in the making? I’m not convinced that he is—at least yet. As a linebackers’ coach, sure. As a head coach, not yet. I further support this argument by the 3-10 record the 49ers currently have. Yeah, I know the head coach is always at fault. But you gotta believe that he listens to his assistant.  

McDaniels is certainly brilliant as a coordinator, as evidenced by the Patriots’ explosive offense. But I’m not so sure that he would even want our mess for his first time head coaching positions. And I’m fairly certain that Blank is about burnt out on high-risk/potentially low reward former coordinators and college coaches as the head coach of the Atlanta Falcons.

I see experience—real NFL head coaching experience being the next hire. Additionally, I see real NFL success—wins and losses as head coach success—being the key parameter for the next hire. One last name to throw in the list might be former head coach, Dan Reeves. During his time under Blank, the two clashed, but Blank is a businessman and Reeves is a proven winner. It was Reeves who took the Falcons to their only super bowl.

So what was the whole point to this section, you rightfully ask? Simple, regardless of coach we will draft and sign free agents to fill holes and we’ll try to draft playmakers when possible.

Our offensive line is tiny, old and ravaged by injury. All aforementioned job candidates have teams that have huge offensive lines, not a roster filled with anorexic smurfs that excel in our former zone-blocking scheme. I still stand by my earlier predictions of free agent targets. 

All of the above mentioned candidates have or either had punishing running backs that can carry every down. Note I didn’t necessarily say Jerome Bettis-type backs. What I said is every down type running backs. I think the consensus on Jerious Norwood is that he is comparable to Eric Metcalfe or Reggie Bush. Best utilized by fewer and varied types of touches that utilize his speed. Norwood will be a big part of our team, but will see a new backfield partner, as Warrick Dunn is most likely done posing as a full-time back. Under the new regime he’ll either be cut, reduced to utility (Kevin Faulk-type) or retire.

Lastly, we need a quarterback regardless of which coach we hire. This may be the only real need that has mutated. Originally I had Brian Brohm as our first pick, and he still could be, but depending on combine results that could change. I’m changing the pick now, based upon experts’ rankings, which I think will factor heavily in our selection at our projected draft position of #3 overall. Neither McKay, nor Blank will take chances this year, and obviously Brohm’s experience in a Petrino offensive scheme has been negated.

I have performed a mock for all first round picks previous to the Falcons’ first selection.

Before we begin, let’s holler a hearty “Pig Sooey!”  Enjoy the mock and analysis:

Round 1:

#1 Miami Dolphins: Glenn Dorsey, DT LSU 

·       SAME PICK: They may try to trade down, but it’s tough to do in the NFL.

• The Dolphins have a fine nucleus of offensive players in Ronnie Brown, John Beck, Ted Ginn and Lorenzo Booker (watch this guy next year). They also have bookend OTs in Vernon Carey and LJ Shelton. Prior to injury, Brown was on pace for something like 1500+ yds rushing and 700-800 yds receiving, so the offensive line can block. Much like us they lost their starting QB and were decimated by injuries. Look for the dolphins to do well offensively in their second year under Cam Cameron.
• However, their defense is atrocious and aging. They need playmakers and youthfulness to even hope to be competitive. Dorsey makes the most sense. He's the best overall collegiate defensive player in the draft. He's tough (playing with injuries now), demands double and even triple teaming, is a proven run-stopper who can also chase down the QB and/or ball carrier. This guy is flawless.

No brainer, this is the pick.

#3 NE Patriots: Darren McFadden, RB Arkansas

http://www.nfldraftdog.com/2008_nfl_draft/darren_mcfaddden_arkansas.htm

• SAME PICK: They may take Chris Long, but….

• It is difficult to write this and simultaneously choke back the vomit rising in the back of my throat. What possible needs does an unstoppable juggernaut have in the draft? Particularly with the 3rd overall. Guess what they draft the best rb prospect in years, Darren McFadden. The duo of Maroney and McFadden makes the Pats completely unstoppable. Blessed with blistering speed and great hands, this kid can line up all over the place: HB, WR and even single wing QB--the world is unfair. If for some reason the Pats go defense here, which I doubt, although JAMES LAURINAITIS LB from Ohio State is a possibility due to the impending retirement and/or decline of an aging Tedy Bruschi; odds are the rich get richer and the pats grab McFadden and average 60 points a game offensively in 08.
• Additionally, while showing glimpses of brilliance, Maroney has not proven to be a game-changing running back. Both backs shared touches in college and should give the Pats yet more weapons. Can you say repeat Super Bowl Championship?

 #3 Atlanta Falcons: Matt Ryan QB, Boston College 6'4" 224 lbs.

http://www.nfldraftdog.com/2008_nfl_draft/matt_ryan.htm

• DIFFERENT PICK & DRAFT ORDER (5 to 3

• Has there ever been a tougher year to project a top 3 pick? I can’t think of it. As stated before, the only way that the Falcons don't draft Brohm is if Petrino returns back to the collegiate ranks.  Well guess what happened…
• Matt Ryan, right now, is the top projected QB prospect and the most NFL ready. The most NFL ready belonged to Brohm with Petrino here, but again the Falcons aren’t taking risk, and go with the highest projected QB. And Ryan is most NFL ready when you look at his ability to distribute the ball to multiple wide receivers and read defense. There are 5 BC players with at least 40-70 catches and averaging between 500 and 800 yards receiving and 4 touchdowns. That’s Brady-like distribution.
• Matt Ryan is special. While I think Brohm is the better technical quarterback, Ryan is a bit of a gambler and a much more charismatic leader. Ryan averaged over 45 pass attempts per game this year, and put up over 4000 yds and 28 touchdowns and completed over 60% of his passes in a very talent-deficient offense.
• Some will point out the disappoint loss to Virginia Tech in the championship game. Ryan still kept an overmatched team in the game. I point to the two comeback touchdowns that he threw in the first game. Additionally, McKay and Petrino have to establish a new face for the franchise post Vick.
• I still like Brohm as well, and I really think Petrino leaving has not hurt his rankings with the Falcons, I just believe that he was not higher ranked than Ryan at all, and that they would have reached to put Brohm into Petrino’s offense.
• Keep in Mind the combine could change everything. Regardless, I’m sticking w/ either Brohm or Ryan as our pick, and I’m going with Ryan as of now based upon better arm strength, charisma and mobility. I’d be happy with either pick.

FALCON PICKS:

Round 1: Mat Ryan QB, Boston College

• Currently ranked #1 QB by both Mel Kiper and Mike Mayock

Round 2: Michael Oher OT, Ole Miss 6'6"325

·        SAME PICK

http://www.nfldraftdog.com/2008_nfl_draft/michael_oher.htm  

• If he comes out, I think Oher is this draft's Justin Blalock. An accomplished OG and OT with athleticism and bulk. And like Blalock, a lot of teams will project him as OG so he'll slip due to prospects like Jake Long, Sam Baker, Ryan Clady, and Jeff Otah who are more the traditional NFL OT types. His slipping is our gain. We get a prospect who can start at RG, in place of Forney, if we sign Adams like I suggested and go with Weiner another year. Or he could be our RT. Hell it's possible that Renardo Foster, who looked very good prior to season-ending surgery, is our starting RT. Either way he gives us bang for our bucks as he is versatile, huge and mean.
• If Oher doesn’t come out, I still see us drafting a versatile OLmen in the second and making a splash in Free agency.

Round 2:  Ray Rice RB, Rutgers

http://www.nfldraftdog.com/2008_nfl_draft/Ray-Rice.htm   

·        SAME PICK

• With Dunn certain to be a goner, and the coaching staff's apparent belief that Norwood is not an every down back, look for us to draft a rb. In the first round look for McFadden, Jonathan Stewart, Felix Jones (if he declares) and Steve Slaton all to go before the 5'9" 200 lbs Rice. We'll snatch him early. While smallish he's powerfully built, and if you all remember Emmitt Smith was his size--he did ok, don't you think? Rice is also durable having carried the ball 335 times last year and 345 times this year.  Rice also has nice hands and is very good at the goal line amassing 20 TDs each of the last year. And Petrino  knows all about him, having played in the Big East. A running back tandem of Norwood and Rice would solidify the Falcons for the next four years.
• Additionally, regardless of coach, the Falcons invested large free agent dollars in run-blocking specialist, Ovie Mughelli, and expect an upgrade at the running back position to occur. Dunn is not your optimal I-formation type back.
• Stud back for nice price. Mike Hart could be other option if Rice is gone. But, regardless, both backs have exhibited the capability to carry the load at the collegiate level and should carry that ability to the professional level.

Round 3 Craig Steltz, 6’2’’ 204 lbs SS, LSU

·        ORIGINAL PICK : Jacob Tamme TE, Kentucky

• I had Tamme as the selection based upon his pass-catching ability, and Petrino’s ongoing feud with starting tight end, Algae Crumpler. But Petrino is gone, and I’m pretty sure Algae will be back and we have needs on both sides of the ball. Lawyer Milloy is getting long in the tooth, and could be a cap hit. Defensive Coordinator, Mike Zimmer, will love this kid.
• Despite finishing with 97 tackles and six interceptions, tops in the Southeastern Conference, recording five tackles for losses and seven pass breakups, being one of 3 finalists for the Thorpe award, Steltz will be a 3^rd rounder at best thanks to his pedestrian 40 yard dash times (4.59 projected). The NFL’s infatuation with measurables will be our 3^rd round gain. Steltz possesses excellent quickness is great in coverage and hits hard and comes from a winning college program and is a high character prospect. Exactly the type of guys that you build a team around.
• This pick is dependent on combine 40 times. Could rise higher, or fall lower in draft.

Round 4: Jonathan Goff ILB, Vanderbilt

·        SAME PICK

• One thing that GM Rich McKay excels at it is drafting excellent LBs in the rounds 4 and later. And it seems like every year someone slips and he nabs them (think Boley) Goff is 6'4 230 and runs around a 4.79--ample speed for MLB. There are some concerns about his coverage skills, but the Falcons have Boley and Nicholas and potentially DMO who are all ball hawks. This kid is a player and he's smart. What will be interesting is what the Falcons do with Keith Brooking. If Brooking stays look for Goff to play STs and be in the rotation; if Brooking is cut—he could compete for a starting job.

Round 4 (Kerney compensation) : Eddie Royal WR/PR, Va Tech. 5'10" 184

·        SAME PICK

• Game breaking returner, and WR who can make the big plays. However he has an injury history and with his small frame projects to a #3 wr in the NFL. Good bye current ineffective returner, Adam Jennings. Royal in the right offense, could evolve into an Az Hakim type WR (the Rams’ days).

Round 5: Nick Hayden DT, Wisconsin:

SAME PICK

• At 6’5” and 301 lbs., with the frame to add 10 more pounds, Hayden is the right  size for our 4-3 base defensive tackle. He also uses excellent technique and has some pass-rushing abilities. Excellent against the run and smart. Will be in the rotation immediately.

Round 6 : Brandon Coutu,  K Georgia

• Those of you that have been on the boards awhile know I hate drafting Kickers, but the Morton Anderson experiment has to end. Lest any of you think we draft Art Carmody chew on this : he's only hit 2 of 5 beyond 40 yds. Morten is accurate until about 45-47, why draft in that case?
• Coutu also has a powerful leg making a long of 58 yds and can handle kickoff duties, which could save the leg of current kick-off specialist, who also doubles as the starting punter, Michael Koenen.
• Coutu is the type kicker that we lack--one that we can line up with 2 seconds from 52 yds; and he has played at a big time school so pressure is not a problem.

Round 6 (Rossum) : Fernando Velasco OG/C, UGA

·        SAME PICK

• At 6'3" 318 lbs Velasco is huge and can play either OG or C. Provides immediate depth to the rotation. He  stout at the Point of attack and won’t be bowled over by larger NFL defensive tackles. Could compete with last year’s sixth round draft pick, Doug Datish and/or incumbent starter, Todd McClure for starting position or provide a very versatile backup. McClure, by the way, who is only 6’2” and 290 lbs most likely will be cut or traded to a team that runs a zone blocking offense. McClure is not a good fit in any offensive line that runs any scheme other than zone blocking.

Round 7:  Breno Giacomini OT/TE

• He is a 6'7" 300 lb athlete who has experience at both TE and OT. Might be more of a project than anything else. But if he sticks to the roster could prove to be a great asset from purposes of both depth and versatility. Could be very useful in 2 TE sets in red zone situations as both blocker and eligible WR.
• One last thing to note, remember when the Buffalo Bills drafted a late round “tweener” OT/TE, named Jason Peters a few years back? Well that “tweener” has evolved into one of the better OTs in the NFL. Prospects like Giacomini, who possesses size and athleticism, are great late round picks as they cost nothing. Despite Petrino moving on, I personally love this type of pick. Low risk-high reward. Gotta love it!
• This pick is definitely my wish list pick

Coach Petrino Walks out on the Falcons

Disregard all of my previous columns dictating team needs and praising the potential of Atlanta Falcons head coach, Bobby Petrino. Tear ‘em up. Shred ‘em. Delete them to the far reaches of oblivion, somewhere beyond cyberspace. I’m a sucker. But I’m not alone.

Just like Arthur Blank, the Falcons team, and many other fans, Petrino had made a believer out of me. He was a fighter. Injury to defensive line? No problem, plug in a rookie. Rookie gets hurt? Sign a scrub that was in street clothes. That was the mantra of the silent, but resolute man from Louisville-town. He was the new face, sans Vick. The Captain to right the ship’s course, and find the treasure that had been out of the grasp of Falcon Nation for so long. Turned out I had put Petrino on a pedestal. But I was not alone.

Arthur Blank, ever so natty in his signature $3000.00 black suit and a red tie that cost more than my house payment, sincerely addressed a national crowd on Monday Night Football and lauded praises upon Petrino (I refuse to call him coach any longer). Words like “leader” and CEO” were tossed out by Mr. Blank. Words that I never heard him utter about the previous coaches under his tenure. But even more incredible was the sincerity used by Blank in his praise of Petrino. You didn’t have to be a skilled Freudian to notice that Blank was not just kissing the ass of his minion in an attempt to bolster his self-confidence; nor was he simply laying the subtle trap of false job security, prior to the inevitable firing, like he had done with the previous head coach, Jim Mora.

No this time was different. Petrino was his man. And Petrino confirmed this by saying that Atlanta was his home, and the Falcons were his family. He loved his job, he said. He looked straight into the cameras, and assured a national audience, “that he was not returning to the collegiate game. Bobby Petrino was a Falcon.” Had he been running for office, I would have voted for him twice on the spot myself, and once in the name of my dead great-aunt. Sounds of Christmas cheer and joy filled my schizoid-brain; I saw angels rejoicing. The prophecy was fulfilled. After years of wandering the desert, otherwise known as the NFL basement, the Falcons were on the road to salvation. Soon, our roster was going to be filled with past Louisville studs, and we would rise from the depths of mediocrity to take our place among the hallowed Patriots and 1972 Dolphins. Yes, redemption was nigh. A Championship was on the horizon. The messiah had finally come. And then the messiah screwed us all.

In case you haven’t been watching all of the major sports networks, Bobby Petrino pulled a Nick Saban (remember what I said about deleting my past columns) and accepted a job as the head coach of the Arkansas Razorbacks. The resignation was effective immediately.  Ten minutes after the job acceptance press conference at the university, Petrino and his shining happy family were filmed chanting the famed Razorbacks’ “Pig Sooey.” I vomited. As I’m sure many did, and officially joined the ranks of agnosticism.

After breaking the TV and cursing the Gods, I was able to somewhat logically consider the situation—the betrayal, if you will—and at least pretend to see it from Petrino’s perspective. Maybe he wasn’t the Anti-Christ, I rationalized. After all, hadn’t he accepted the position under the pretenses that Michael Vick would run his offense? He hadn’t been the one driving defensive tackle, Rod Coleman’s Jet Ski? The same Jet Ski that sidelined our best pass rusher, I told myself aloud. Who can blame him, I continued somewhere in the depth of my sub-conscious. I’d do the same thing myself, if I were him. Go back to the collegiate ranks where no one questioned my authority, and golfing in daylight hours was the norm. Go back to the warmth of booster supplying me with elite country club memberships, and other such perks. Surely if I were Petrino, I thought, I would take the Arkansas job. Wouldn’t I? The truth is, there is no way in hell I would have pulled a Petrino.

Commitment and teamwork are two of the main reasons that fans are so passionate about the NFL. Representation of their geographic area is the other reason fans are so rabid. Petrino promised to deliver Falcon Fans all three of these objectives. Commitment. Petrino preached commitment to his system. Brought in his guys, installed his system. Showed loyalty to his ex-Louisville players to fill our holes. Ran the system in games. We fans stood by him as he played quarterback carousel. Some, like me, defended the carousel and argued he was doing it for the betterment of the team, and despite us disliking it, we would support him. Our mock drafts, mine included, include players that fit the Petrino system. Hell, even Mr. Blank promised on network TV to draft a quarterback and others that fit the Petrino system.

Teamwork. Over and over, Petrino preached teamwork. He fined DeAngelo Hall for not being a team player. He marginalized and cut veterans who didn’t fit the team concept, as he saw it. He stood by lesser talented players because they were “team” players.

Geographical representation. Petrino called himself a Georgian. Bought a house. His wife joined the right clubs. He stressed the Falcons represented both the city of Atlanta and the state of Georgia, and should, therefore, act accordingly. For once since the Vick trial, us fans, and by default Georgians felt we were being represented as something other than either racists or dog killers. There was hope for once. He asked us to believe and we did.

But then, like Vick, Petrino broke our hearts. He smiled, and said on national TV that he loved the state of Arkansas and was proud to be a Razorback. He left a broken team, with no identity one day after their former star quarterback was sentenced to 23 months in prison. He left one day after a beleaguered team was not just beat for the third time in a row; he left one day after they were humiliated by the New Orleans Saints, 34-14.   He left with 3 games to go in the worst season that the Falcons had ever experienced. When a team needed its leader most, he quit. But I won’t. Enjoy the bastard, Arkansas. Your turn will come.

I’m still an Atlanta Falcons’ fan and we shall overcome. Look for the Falcons to promote either defensive coordinator, Mike Zimmer, or offensive coordinator, Hue Jackson, to temporary head coach for the final 3 games. While both names will certainly be interviewed, my feeling is unless the team does a 360 degree turn-around and wins the last 3 games by huge margins, neither will be hired as the next head coach. Arthur Blank has already hired and fired a former coordinator (Jim Mora) and been left in the lurch by a former college genius (Petrino), with little return on investment for his efforts.

The next head coach will be a proven entity and proven winner as a NFL head coach. My guess is that Bill Parcells and Bill Cowher top the list of desired candidates. With Marty Schottenheimer and Dan Reeves as the second tier candidates. Reeves is a dark horse, as he was fired by Blank, but Reeves is also a Georgian and hall of fame coach who took the Falcons to their only Super Bowl appearance. Blank is enough of a businessman to put aside personal differences and open the check book.

General Manager, Rich McKay, could be unemployed. All candidates I have listed will most certainly want a lot of control over personnel decisions if not the general manager position as well. At the least, McKay has been GM since Dec 2003, and was responsible for hiring both Jim Mora and Bobby Petrino.  Worse yet since former assistant GM, Tim Ruskell, left Atlanta to become the GM of the Seattle Seahawks, the Falcons have been in decline, both in terms of wins/losses personnel decisions, both in the draft and free agency. Seattle, on the other hand, has steadily improved under Ruskell. Surely Blank, a savvy corporate type, has noticed these less than subtle changes. In short, McKay may be expendable.

NEXT WEEK’S PREDICTION: Tampa Bay 31, Atlanta 7.

There are just too many odds not in favor of the Falcons right now. Tampa is playoff-bound and at home. The Falcons are broken and coachless. Appreciate the parting gift, Bobby Petrino. Kinda like giving VD to your wife, isn’t it?

First Atlanta Falcons Mock Draft

In my opinion the Falcons will be extremely active in the upcoming off-season. General Manager, Rich McKay, will be strongly pressured by team owner, Arthur Blank, to field a competitive team in 08. Hard to fault Blank who has stood behind McKay and hired Jim Mora, extended the contract of ex-quarterback, Michael Vick and in general been fiscally supportive of McKay’s free agent (FA) pursuits—many of which have been busts.  As former owner of Home Depot, one has to believe that Blank wants a return on his investment sooner rather than later.

My first 08 prediction is if the Falcons finish less than 8-8, McKay will be fired. McKay’s work is cut out for him. There are a lot of holes on this roster. Quarterback, running back, offensive line and the safety position all have aging or ineffective players. Personally, I think McKay uses free agency to immediately infuse the offensive line with size and ability. Offensive tackles (OT) are expensive, but I highly doubt that McKay or head coach, Bobby Petrino,  have any desire to enter next season without a solid and large veteran OT on next years squad after this years dismal offensive output.

My money is on us targeting one of two FA OTs: Flozell Adams, OT Dallas Cowboys and Max Starks, OT, Pittsburgh Steelers. Personally I think Flozell is our pick. He's 32, already an established and dominant veteran and will be an unrestricted free agent (UFA) and he will be seeking a big payday. In my opinion the cowboys let him walk as they have Pat McQuiston and Doug Free waiting in the wings. Both are younger, cheaper and have high ceilings. Additionally you could see the Cowboys moving Leonard Davis, who's finally living up to his original high draft status, over to LT. And lastly the Cowboys have an extra mid-first round pick obtained from the Cleveland Browns in the Brady Quinn deal, and this upcoming draft has a deep and talented pool of offensive linemen.

Both Adams and Starks are huge (6'7" and 340 and 6'8" 340 respectively), which definitely fits the mold of the type of OLmen that Petrino wants. Starks is only 25, whereas Adams is 32, so age will certainly factor in the falcons’ decision. I can almost hear you all muttering under your breath as you read this article, “No way we pick Adams over Starks. Starks is huge, young and possibly cheaper. You, m.e., are truly an idiot!”  But, please, halt the mob, put down the pitchforks and let me explain why Adams is the better FA acquisition for the Falcons: 

1.      Flozell is a proven commodity; Starks is not. Look at Romo's numbers—hell, look at the Cowboys offensive output in general. I rest my case.  

2.      Starks is much younger at 25, but he can't even beat out Willie Colon, a second year man from Hofstra. I don't think McKay dare chances signing a potential FA bust after the last couple of years of Falcon mediocrity and drama. 

3.      Adams is 32, and probably has 3-5 years at least of good football ahead of him. That will allow us the luxury of developing young talent behind him, and not feeding a draft pick to the wolves and hoping they can protect Redman (you'll see why I have tabbed him a starter). 

4.      It's a much easier transition from college to the NFL at the OG position. I think Forney is gone at RG, but I disagree with other posters that think Alan Faneca will be our priority FA target. For one thing he's too light at 307 for Petrino's taste. I think we will draft Forney's replacement, plug him like we did Blalock. 

And, yes, I know some rookie left OTs start and excel right away, but plenty do not. Todd Mandarich comes to mind. Don’t remember him? How about Robert Gallery, the former number 2 overall pick for the Oakland Raiders? He was thrown to the wolves on a bad team, as their starting left tackle. Gallery now is an extremely over-drafted and overpaid guard.

Another position I think that we look to fill via FA is the Safety position. Dallas Cowboy Ken Hamlin will be an UFA. The cowboys probably will try to sign him long term, but at 26 and one of the best FSs available, Hamlin may shop himself to the highest bidder, however, he may be to pricey for the Falcons. But he could be a possibility as he has struggled in coverage at times and again the Cowboys have a lot of draft picks. On the coverage struggle issues, I think that isn’t a determent for the Falcons, as defensive coordinator, Mike Zimmer, plays a lot of man coverage with the cornerbacks and this would allow Hamlin to be an enforcer for receivers going across the middle, and an extra linebacker when we put 8 in the box to stop the run.

Another intriguing FA would be the Pats FS/CB Randall Gay.   He has been a versatile player for the Patriots making starts at both FS and CB as needed. A former UDFA,   G ay may be looking to cash in and the Patriots may let him walk, as they have a great history of developing FAs. G ay would be an improvement over Crocker IMO and if Darren Stone may be ready to step into the SS position next year providing an enforcer type athlete in the secondary.

Hamlin is my preference, but I also like Gay a lot. Rather, I like the type of player that Gay is; he’s hardnosed, team oriented, and versatile. Injuries happen and the flexibility to move players around is a great commodity for any team.

One thing is certain. We have a lot of holes and we could use about 15 draft picks to fill them all. Unfortunately a salary cap exists and we can only sign so many picks and free agents. So in this mock, I orchestrated an immediate triage to get the Falcons to at least a competitive level by focusing on versatility. Specifically I intentionally used the ability to play multiple positions as discerning criteria for my OL choices. All can play multiple positions along the OL, and at the very least all should provide much needed size and depth.

For my initial mock, I introduce no trades at all and assume that we receive a 4th  round compensatory pick for recently departed, FA Patrick Kerney (might even by a 3^rd round pick). Another assumption I am positing is that NE Patriots will be picking 3rd overall (via San Fran). If my assumptions particularly the initial draft order is off, then this mock will need revising. Here are our projected picks:

Round 1

Round 2

Round 2(From Houston)

Round 3

Round 4

Round 4(Kerney)

Round 5

Round 6

Round 6(Rossum)

Round 7

It's important to point out that it's way too early to do a completely credible mock, as many of these players will rise and fall based upon combine results and team needs. So I simply drafted in areas that I felt that we were weakest at. Also a lot of SEC players in my mock—not out of homerism (I’m a UGA fan)—there is just that much talent in the SEC.

I have performed a mock for all first round picks previous to the Falcons’ first selection. I’ll have a full 2 round mock posted for all teams shortly:

Round 1:

#1 Miami Dolphins: Glenn Dorsey, DT LSU

• The Dolphins have a fine nucleus of offensive players in Ronnie Brown, John Beck, Ted Ginn and Lorenzo Booker (watch this guy next year). They also have bookend OTs in Vernon Carey and LJ Shelton. Prior to injury, Brown was on pace for something like 1500+ yds rushing and 700-800 yds receiving, so the offensive line can block. Much like us they lost their starting QB and were decimated by injuries. Look for the dolphins to do well offensively in their second year under Cam Cameron.

• However, their defense is atrocious and aging. They need playmakers and youthfulness to even hope to be competitive. Dorsey makes the most sense. He's the best overall collegiate defensive player in the draft. He's tough (playing with injuries now), demands double and even triple teaming, is a proven run-stopper who can also chase down the QB and/or ball carrier. This guy is flawless.

No brainer, this is the pick.

#2 New York Jets:  Chris Long, DE UVA

• The jets run a 3-4 defense but do not have the right personnel to make it work. What better way to start rebuilding with the best 3-4 DE, and quite possibly the best overall DE, in the 08 Draft. Long is an instant starter, and potentially provides Eric Mangini with his own version of Richard Seymour. 6'4" and 290 lbs, Long has the size and strength and bloodlines to be a dominant 3-4 DE; he also has the versatility to line up as a 4-3 DE which will allow the Jets to use multiple defensive formations.

There is the slightest possibility that the Jets could nab Darren McFadden--but I don't think so. They have a lot of cap dollars tied up in HB Thomas Jones, who is backed up by a very talented Leon Washington. Although Jones has yet to score a TD, he is on pace to finish with over 1100 yds. rushing--that's amazing considering the lack of a passing game and all of the 8 and 9 men fronts that the Jets face. I believe that Kellen Clemons in his second year will provide the strong armed vertical passing game that the Jets lacked in Chad Pennington. If Clemons continues to improve, Jones and Washington should see the running lanes open up quite a bit.

• The Jets' defense on the other hand, needs a playmaker like Long, who'll be an instant starter and game changer.

#3 NE Patriots: Darren McFadden, RB Arkansas

• It is difficult to write this and simultaneously choke back the vomit rising in the back of my throat. What possible needs does an unstoppable juggernaut have in the draft? Particularly with the 3rd overall. Guess what they draft the best rb prospect in years, Darren McFadden. The duo of Maroney and McFadden makes the Pats completely unstoppable. Blessed with blistering speed and great hands, this kid can line up all over the place: HB, WR and even single wing QB--the world is unfair. If for some reason the Pats go defense here, which I doubt, although JAMES LAURINAITIS LB from Ohio State is a possibility due to the impending retirement and/or decline of an aging Tedy Bruschi; odds are the rich get richer and the pats grab McFadden and average 60 points a game offensively in 08.

#5 Atlanta Falcons: Brian Brohm QB, Louisville (6'4" 224 lbs)

• Sorry for all those clamoring for an OT here, but the writing is on the wall. The only way that the Falcons don't draft Brohm is if Petrino returns back to the collegiate ranks. The good news is that this kid is special. He has thrown for over 4,000 yds and 30 TDs on a far less talented Louisville team than in years past. Additionally, McKay and Petrino have to establish a new face for the franchise post Vick, and Brohm is not only experienced in, he has succeeded in  Petrino's offense. Which means it's possible that he'll be starter immediately just like Peyton Manning was as a rookie.
• Speaking of Peyton, Brohm reminds me a lot of him. Great bloodlines and highly intelligent. While Matt Ryan will perform better at the combine (remember Ryan Leaf) Brohm will be the better professional.

#5 St. Louis Rams: Jake Long, OT Michigan

• Seems odd a team with Orlando Pace would draft an OT this high, however, Pace hit the IR this year and the team suffered horribly as a result. An 11 year vet, but still only 32, the rams’ choice of draft pick will be dictated by his recovery and desire to play longer. Regardless, I see Long as the pick due to Pace only participating in 9 games since 05.

FALCON PICKS:

Round 1: Brian Brohm, QB, Louisville

Round 2: Michael Oher OT, Ole Miss (6'6" 325 lbs)

• I think Oher is this draft's Justin Blalock. An accomplished OG and OT with athleticism and bulk. And like Blalock, a lot of teams will project him as OG so he'll slip due to prospects like Jake Long, Sam Baker, Ryan Clady, and Jeff Otah who are more the traditional NFL OT types. His slipping is our gain. We get a prospect who can start at RG, in place of Forney, if we sign Adams like I suggested and go with Weiner another year. Or he could be our RT. Hell it's possible that Renardo Foster, who looked very good prior to season-ending surgery, is our starting RT. Either way he gives us bang for our bucks as he is versatile, huge and mean.

Round 2:  Ray Rice RB, Rutgers

With Dunn certain to be a goner, and the coaching staff's apparent belief that Norwood is not an every down back, look for us to draft a rb. In the first round look for McFadden, Jonathan Stewart, Felix Jones (if he declares) and Steve Slaton all to go before the 5'9" 200 lbs Rice. We'll snatch him early. While smallish he's powerfully built, and if you all remember Emmitt Smith was his size--he did ok, don't you think? Rice is also durable having carried the ball 335 times last year and 345 times this year.  Rice also has nice hands and is very good at the goal line amassing 20 TDs each of the last year. And Petrino  knows all about him, having played in the Big East. A running back tandem of Norwood and Rice would solidify the Falcons for the next four years.

• Here's a stat for you all to ponder. In 06  Rutgers spoiled Louisville's bid for a national championship by winning 28-25; guess who Louisville's coach? That's right Petrino. All Rice did was carry the rock 22 times for 131 yds and 2 tds.  Plus we have Mughelli and Snelling for short yardage desired--although I think Rice would eat all goal line carries.

Round 3  Jacob Tamme TE, Kentucky

• At 6'5" 240 lbs, Tamme could stand to gain a little more bulk. But he has outstanding speed with a 4.5 40 and great hands. Algae Crumpler has been injured as of late, and could be trade bait or an outright cut as him and Petrino do not seem to mesh. If Martnez Milner can continue to improve, the addition of Tamme would give the Falcons two athletic pass-catching TEs. Tamme could even be utilized as a 4th or 5th wr in spread wide sets.

Round 4 : Jonathan Goff ILB, Vanderbilt 

• One thing that GM Rich McKay excels at it is drafting excellent LBs in the rounds 4 and later. And it seems like every year someone slips and he nabs them (think Boley) Goff is 6'4 230 and runs around a 4.79--ample speed for MLB. There are some concerns about his coverage skills, but the Falcons have Boley and Nicholas and potentially DMO who are all ball hawks. This kid is a player and he's smart. What will be interesting is what the Falcons do with Keith Brooking. If Brooking stays look for Goff to play STs and be in the rotation; if Brooking is cut—he could compete for a starting job.

Round 4 (Kerney compensation) : Eddie Royal WR/PR, Va Tech. 5'10" 184

• Game breaking returner, and WR who can make the big plays. However he has an injury history and with his small frame projects to a #3 wr in the NFL. Good bye current ineffective returner, Adam Jennings. Royal in the right offense, could evolve into an Az Hakim type WR (the Rams’ days).

Round 5: Nick Hayden DT, Wisconsin: 

• At 6’5” and 301 lbs., with the frame to add 10 more pounds, Hayden is the right  size for our 4-3 base defensive tackle. He also uses excellent technique and has some pass-rushing abilities. Excellent against the run and smart. Will be in the rotation immediately.

Round 6 : Brandon Coutu,  K Georgia

• Those of you that have been on the boards awhile know I hate drafting Kickers, but the Morton Anderson experiment has to end. Lest any of you think we draft Art Carmody chew on this : he's only hit 2 of 5 beyond 40 yds. Coutu has a powerful leg making a long of 58 yds and can handle kickoff duties, which could save the leg of current kick-off specialist, who also doubles as the starting punter, Michael Koenen.

Round 6(Rossum) : Fernando Velasco OG/C, UGA

• At 6'3" 318 lbs Velasco is huge and can play either OG or C. Provides immediate depth to the rotation. He  stout at the Point of attack and won’t be bowled over by larger NFL defensive tackles. Could compete with last year’s sixth round draft pick, Doug Datish and/or incumbent starter, Todd McClure for starting position or provide a very versatile backup. McClure, by the way, who is only 6’2” and 290 lbs most likely will be cut or traded to a team that runs a zone blocking offense, as he is not a good fit in the Petrino power offensive line scheme, and is constantly getting bull-rushed by large defensive tackles.

Round 7:  Breno Giacomini OT/TE

• He is a 6'7" 300 lb athlete who has experience at both TE and OT. Might be more of a project than anything else. But if he sticks to the roster could prove to be a great asset from purposes of both depth and versatility. Could be very useful in 2 TE sets in red zone situations as both blocker and eligible WR.
• One last thing to note, remember when the Buffalo Bills drafted a late round “tweener” OT/TE, named Jason Peters a few years back? Well that “tweener” has evolved into one of the better OTs in the NFL. Prospects like Giacomini, who possesses size and athleticism are great late round picks as they cost nothing and at the very least you get a blocking TE, who knows Petrino’s system. Low risk-high reward. Gotta love it!

Atlanta Falcons suffer disappointing loss to Bumbling Rams

As far as predictions go, I think I’ll stick with guessing the total score. My predicted score was a combined 45 points. The actual was 44 points. Great prognosticating, right? Only if you’re a St. Louis Rams fan. As though this season wasn’t dreadful enough already, more salt was added to the gaping wounds of the Atlanta Falcons after a disappointing 28-16 loss to the also bumbling Rams.

The Rams took a commanding 21-3 lead into the fourth quarter, until Petrino yet again decided that quarterback (QB), Joey Harrington, was not the right successor to the talented felon, Michael Vick.

In fairness to Harrington, he has zero self-confidence at this point. In a position that is historically manned by those with large egos, requiring votes of confidence and pats on the back from the head coach on a regular basis, Harrington has been started and pulled a four times this season. An ineffective Harrington was pulled after another day of lackluster QB play (17 of 34 for 184 yards and 1 interception) for third stringer, Chris Redman, who prior to signing with the Falcons had not seen any NFL action since 2003. The former Louisville star was an insurance agent, when his former collegiate offensive coordinator, Bobby Petrino, lured him out of retirement in the off-season.

Turned out the move worked, Redman completed 16 of 24 passes for 172 yards and two touchdowns in one quarter. He also had an interception due to a blown route by wide receiver, and would have had another touchdown pass to his credit had wide receiver, Joe Horn, held on to a very well thrown pass in the end zone. In short, Redman did not look like a third-stringer, instead he looked like a QB that had a great command of the intricate Petrino spread offense and had the confidence and ability to make snap-decisions and get the ball out of his hand.

But here’s where I start criticizing Petrino. Is the QB carousel now officially stopped turning? Is Harrington done for the season? Is Redman the starter now? Or is Petrino going to sit both Redman and Harrington and start the oft-injured and equally ineffective Byron Leftwich? When does the madness stop?

Petrino, as I stated before, is a good coach. His offensive system is solid, and he knows how to surround himself with smart people. As evidenced by the hiring of offensive coordinator, Hue Jackson and defensive coordinator, Mike Zimmer, who have past and sustained success at other coordinator positions.

Jackson, previously with the Cincinnati Bengals, was responsible for the meteoric development of stud QB, Carson Palmer, non-first round picked wide receivers, Chad Johnson (2^nd rounder) and TJ Houshmandzadeh (6^th rounder), and running back Rudi Johnson (4^th rounder) into great offensive players. He is also responsible for the dramatic turn-around of once potential first round wide receiver bust, Roddy White.

Zimmer has had similar success on the defensive side in his tenure as the defensive coordinator for the Dallas Cowboys. Zimmer, who prefers a 4-3 defense, was so highly thought of that former Dallas head coach, Bill Parcells, retained his services upon hiring despite the fact that Parcells preferred a 3-4 defense.

With this type of a coaching staff in place why are the Falcons so terrible? While several factors must be considered, primarily the root cause is Bobby Petrino’s handling of the QB position. His lack of patience and incessant changing of QBs has had a domino effect on the team as a whole. While Michael Vick certainly had flaws, and he was far from the consummate leader, he was clearly the face of the franchise and undisputed team captain. Joey Harrington is not. And while Joey has not played extremely well, in fairness he has been playing with a metaphorical gong in the background waiting to be banged upon by Petrino at the first sight of ineffectiveness. No one, regardless of talent, and I’m talking Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, can be a successful NFL starting QB without two things: the vote of confidence from the head coach that you are the undisputed team leader; and the certainty the you will not be benched when times are tough.

Petrino has done nothing to assure Joey that he is the team leader, and he has certainly benched him on regularity. This has been the undoing of the Atlanta Falcons this year. Hopefully Petrino will stick with Redman for the remainder of the year, and draft his QB in the upcoming draft. Better yet, hopefully Petrino will allow his rookie QB to develop the self confidence necessary to resurrect a seemingly wayward franchise.

How does this affect the defense? The answer is clear to anyone that has ever played any team sport. It is all about enthusiasm and momentum. Those two things are contagious. Vick’s earlier electrifying scrambles inspired the defense to greater levels of play. Whereas Harrington’s uninspired play, which I deem as a direct result of his fear of benching, has culminated in a contagious case of non-motivation on both sides of the ball.

Don’t believe me, huh? Check out the way our defense and offense—our team if you will—stepped up their play when Redman entered the game. Redman had nothing to lose, so he just flung the ball and played the game. For him it was a second chance after suffering the doldrums of hawking insurance policies for a living. Chris was granted one more shot at ascending mere mortality. To inspire, and be a leader of men—not just a brooks brother clad 9 to 5er mired in the mud pit of life. Maybe Chris can hook Joey up with his old gig? A mud bath might be just what Joey needs right now.

NEXT WEEK’S PREDICTION: New Orleans 24, Falcons 27

Yes, I’m predicting the Falcons to win. And, yes, does anybody really give a damn if they do at this point? But the fact remains that Redman seems to at least be able to move the ball and deliver touchdowns.

Player watch: Jerious Norwood; Norwood totaled 94 yards and has 442 yards on just 69 carries, averaging 6.4 yards per carry for the year. The man is simply explosive. Look for the coaching staff to see how effective Norwood will be with more carries. However, regardless, of how he does look for the Falcons to at least draft a running back in the first two rounds of the upcoming draft to pair with Norwood and replace the ineffective starter, Warrick Dunn, who could retire after this year.

Off Season Needs of the Atlanta Falcons

Why me? That has to be the main question currently plaguing the mind of Bobby Petrino. This time last year he was at the helm of a Louisville Cardinal team that he had built, torching NCAA powerhouse defenses for 50+ a game and entertaining thoughts of BCS title games---my how the mighty have fallen!

Flash forward a year later.  The offensive guru finds himself head of an NFL team struggling to score and executing a juggling act of inept former first round quarterback flops. Can the ship be righted? A couple of weeks ago I predicted a rebuilding year, and two horrid losses later, I'm sticking with that statement.

Now the question is this: Can Petrino succeed as a head coach in the NFL? Or is he the next Nick Saban, humbled by the pro experience; destined to become yet another so-called collegiate genius who fails at the professional level and ala Steve Spurrier and Saban soon to hurriedly scamper towards the first open division one college job?

I think Petrino will resist a return to the collegiate ranks and will stay the course as head of the Falcons. Secondly, I believe that Petrino can and will succeed as the head coach of the Atlanta Falcons. But his quest will not be easy, and it will take at least two years for the Falcons to become respectable, much less playoff contenders. The fact is the man inherited a roster filled with overpaid and underachieving veterans in the playmaker positions (Warrick Dunn and Algae Crumpler - chief among this group). Couple this fact with the Michael Vick debacle and a roster filled with undersized zone-blocking offensive lineman and it is a wonder that the Petrino has three victories to his credit. Simply put, this team is in need of an influx of talent.

Not much good about the consecutive blowout losses to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Indianapolis Colts. With the Falcons giving up 31 points to each team, it would seem that it's easy enough to shift all blame to the defense. But that simply is not the case. The fact is the Falcons offense simply can not control the clock or score points. The defense is, in fact, the lone bright spot of the Falcons, recovering 2 fumbles, registering 5 sacks and one interception in the two lopsided losses.

Oddly enough I'm watching the Chiefs and Raiders game, and shaking my head in disbelief as to why Petrino did not lobby draft his old Louisville running back, Kolby Smith. The kid is stout and shifty and nice in short yardage situations. That's evidenced by a fourth and inches he picked up in the first quarter. Why did I bring Smith up? Simple, he's what Petrino lacks currently on the Falcons roster. A running back that can be counted upon to feed the ball to on a consistent basis. Starting tailback Warrick Dunn, while a decent zone-blocking offense scat back, is not an every-down option for the Falcons. This is important as Petrino's spread offense is predicated by a balanced power running game. Apparently Jerious Norwood, who is definitely a bonafied playmaker, is not viewed as an every down option, as evidenced by the measly six carries he received.

The running back position must be addressed in the upcoming draft in the Falcons have any hope to succeed next year. The Falcons who are competing (actually losing) for a top five pick in the upcoming draft, have a very good chance of landing the Arkansas Razorback stud, Darren McFadden. Listed at 6'2" 215 lbs., and a 4.3 forty time, McFadden, coupled with Norwood would give the Falcons a potent blend of size and speed at the tailback position for years to go. Norwood has displayed nice hands, but registered no catches against the Colts and was used sparingly. I'm not sure why the Falcons coaching staff is not attempting to get more touches for the speedy tailback, but one has to wonder if his lackluster pass-protection ability is not a primary factor.

The primary concern I have with Petrino is regarding the quarterback position. Why on earth did he bench Harrington after two consecutive wins for the incumbent Byron Leftwich? While Harrington is far removed from stud status, he had been efficient, and for some reason Petrino literally did the unthinkable: showed a public lack of confidence in his offensive leader by benching him. To make matters worse in the Tampa Bay game, Petrino pulled Leftwich after two interceptions and barely completing 50% of his throws.

Despite the lack of talent on the team, Petrino must resist knee-jerk reactions such as a mid-season QB carousel. Granted neither Harrington nor Leftwich are long-term projects, and the Falcons are certain to nab a young signal-caller in the upcoming draft; but they are the hand that Petrino was dealt post-Vick and it is his job to keep the Falcons on a steady course, and changing QBs every game is not the way to achieve this objective.

FALCONS FUTURE OUTLOOK

Overall the Falcons look dismal, and I predict a three or four win season and a slot in the top 5 in the upcoming draft. But the future is bright, as the cliché goes, as the team has a talented young defensive squad and bonafied stud wide receiver in Roddy White. Additionally second round offensive guard, Justin Blalock, is displaying the physical acumen and toughness that the Falcons need on a struggling offensive line. The problem facing the Falcons in the upcoming draft and next year’s free agency is a ton of offensive holes. A quarterback to assume the role of Vick as the face of the franchise is a must pick, but who will run the ball, or block for the young man? Unfortunately there are only so many picks in the draft and a salary cap does exist.

Regardless of Falcon draft plans I see Harrington or Leftwich---probably Harrington---being next years signal caller. No way does Bobby Petrino throw a rookie in behind a makeshift line. That would be a recipe for disaster. I also predict the Falcons will expend a few dollars (yeah, right!) in free agency on an experienced offensive lineman or two.  High on the FA offensive line list should be the Dallas Cowboys starting offensive tackle, Flozell Adams. He’s huge, listed at 6’7” and a very non-generous 340 pounds and has in ten years developed into an outstanding run and pass blocker. He is the prototype OT for a power running and pass-protection heavy offensive scheme that Petrino favors. The good news is that he’ll be expensive and the Cowboys have developed some young and cheap talent behind him. Three words for Arthur Blank - “Open the checkbook!”

At 32 years of age, Adams should have 5 or 6 good years left in him and would provide immediate stability and size to the undersized and constantly injured current Falcons offensive line. Signing Adams would allow the release of the aging Wayne Gandy, and the numbers of Harrington and/or Leftwich should rise dramatically with a real OT protecting their blind side. Additionally the other starting OT, Todd Weiner, has been one of the bright spots on an otherwise dismal offensive line.

While I don’t see a “worst to first” type turnaround for the Falcons in 08, it would not be out of the realm of possibility for the Falcons in Petrino’s second year to contend for a wild-card berth and win 9 or 10 games. They will, after all, be returning a drastically improved defense with two years under defensive coordinator, Mike Zimmer, and there is no way the offense could be even worse in 08. Right, they can’t be any worse….

FALCONS DRAFT NEEDS

With a top five pick almost assuredly theirs, it is imperative that the Falcons pick the best player available regardless of position. My money is on the Falcons selecting Arkansas Razorback Darren McFadden, if available. This kid, as I described earlier, will be a stud in the NFL. If McFadden is unavailable look for the Falcons to select either Louisville Cardinal QB, Brian Brohm, or Kentucky Wildcat QB, Andre Woodson. My money is on Brohm being a Falcon as he was recruited and coached by Petrino at Louisville and obviously knows the Petrino offensive scheme.

Other first round Falcon choices could be Michigan OT, Jake Long. But to be honest I don’t see this happening. I do see, however, this Falcons draft being OL heavy from second round on (they have two second rounders). Expect the Falcons to draft at least two guards and two offensive tackles in this draft, and look for at least two of those picks to be expected to compete for starting jobs.

Also expect the Falcons to draft at least one run-stopper defensive tackle, due to the recent moves of defensive tackles Rod Coleman and Trey Lewis to the season ending injury reserve list. Defensive tackle depth has been the bane of an otherwise much improved Falcon defense. They literally do not have enough bodies to properly rest and rotate players on the defensive line. Good news is that rookie defensive tackles usually can play immediately, and there are always good veteran FA defensive tackles available.

Defensive tackle depth has caused a dip in effectiveness in defensive end, John Abraham. Abraham, an undersized speed rusher, is most effective, when teams are forced to pass. The losses of Coleman and Lewis have allowed teams to run at will on the Falcons and also enabled the play-action pass. In the win against Carolina, the Panthers only amassed 90 yards rushing, and while Abraham did not notch a sack, he was in QB Vinny Testaverde’s face the entire game causing him to force his throws, allowing the secondary to not give up a pass over 22 yards.

Flash forward a week to the Tampa Bay game. Tampa amassed 149 yards in rushing, and QB Jeff Garcia completed a 44 yard touchdown pass. Ditto for the Indianapolis game, Peyton Manning passed for over 270 yards and 3 touchdowns. But guess what else, the Colts gained 118 yards rushing. Despite actually trailing at one point to the Falcons by 10 points, methodically the Colts maintained a balanced attack of rushing and passing. Eventually the tired Falcons defensive line could not maintain a strong point of attack, Abraham’s speed was neutralized and he was forced to take on double-teams…and well you know the rest…

NEXT WEEK’S PREDICTION: St. Louis Rams 21, Falcons 24:

Yes, the Falcons will win! Caution: They only win if Rams QB Marc Bulger (concussion) does not play. Backup QB, Gus Frerotte, might be worse than Harrington. And injuries on the Rams offensive line should allow Atlanta defensive end, John Abraham, to have a huge day.  Atlanta scores 2 defensive touchdowns to nudge the Rams.

Let’s start today’s column by giving props to our beloved team for a hard-fought win 20-16 victory over the even more hapless San Francisco 49ers. But before we get too mushy or sentimental over this victory, let’s put things in perspective: This team is in worse shape than ours! Don’t believe me, huh? Still in denial? Still think Joey Harrington is a superstar in disguise?

The bad news is that we are officially out of contention for the #1 overall 2008 draft pick (still top 5, perhaps), and we beat a hapless team that because of last year’s draft day trade with New England push the Super Bowl-bound Patriots closer and closer to the top spot with every loss.

However, the great news is that our team, fellow Falcon fans, is beginning to play like a team. I’ve noticed one consistency this season, which differentiates from the Jim Mora era—this team is scrappy, and plays every down. Tenacity and toughness, my friends, is a credit to the coaching staff. While off to an inauspicious start, the future is bright for the Petrino regime—mark my words, fellow Falcon fans.

OFFENSE

Here’s a reality check, San Francisco entered the contest with the 20^th overall ranked defense in the NFL, giving up just over 336 yards per contest (127.3 rushing & 209 passing) and yielding 23.3 points per game to each opponent. See where I’m going with this? We hung only 20 points on a team that is not exactly strong at the point. Quarterback Joey Harrington., predictably, played horribly, completing 14 of 25 passes for a paltry 138 yards, 0 touchdowns and one interception. His inability to stretch the field makes one wonder why the hell wasn’t Matt Millen immediately committed to the Michigan state home for the criminally insane after burning the 3^rd overall pick  in  02 on this bum!

Brian Brohm or Matt Ryan, anyone?

While we all await the second coming of Favre back to Atlanta—thank you Jerry Glanville—I think it’s safe to say that a healthy Byron Leftwich would be a start to the road of easing our anxiety. Jerry Glanville, may you rot in division II college hell for your tremendous strategic vision and future-telling abilities. Who the hell did we draft with the first rounder we got for Favre again?  On a serious note, Leftwich, who had screws inserted in his ankle, is rehabbing quickly. However, don’t expect to watch “Fat Albert” stretching the field with his beautiful spirals for the upcoming Carolina Panthers game.

A++ to Bobby Petrino and staff for committing to the run against the 49ers. A season-high rushing total of 155 yards and the stubborn refusal of Petrino and company to live and die by the run is impressive. Tailback Warrick Dunn had a nice game, with 27 rushes for 100 yards and a touchdown. However, his 3.7 average yards per carry was less than impressive. The initial gut response of Falcon Fans everywhere is to scream at the top of our lungs, “Give Jerious Norwood the ball!” Nice sentiment, but the fact remains the Petrino system is predicated upon having a power back who can pound out the tough short-yardage/red zone yards, and then have the shiftier speedy backs provide a change of pace to run around a tired defense. This philosophy, coupled with multiple wide receiver shifts, is quite effective. Big Problem for the Falcons is that both Norwood and Dunn are finesse runners. Quite frankly Ovie Mughelli is not an effective short-yardage back. He is what he has always been— a beast of a fullback, but a full-back all the same.

Darren McFadden, anyone? Hell put Justin Blalock in there…Power please!

A+++ to an offensive line that gave up one sack the entire game. Wow! Not bad for a bunch of underweight, scrub, back-up types. Offensives tackle Todd Weiner should be back from knee surgery in time the Panthers game. His return should fortify a line that has had multiple season-ending injuries (Wayne Gandy & Renardo Foster), yet still seems to give it the “Ol’ College Try” every game they play. Rookie Justin Blalock is looking more and more like a bonafied stud at the guard position. Blalock is a big, mean, mauler who finishes blocks—gotta love that, fellow Falcon Fans. The downside to it all is that we played the 49ers. The fact remains that the Falcons are in desperate need of a few big ol’ hawgs on the line if we ever intend to be a power run, pass protecting team.

Jake Long, anyone?

The wide receivers were virtually non-existent most of the game. But it’s hard to fault them when every Joey H. pass is for 5 yards and across the middle or sideline. Gotta love Roddy White. I personally had written him off as bust, but the kid is a baller. Physical and fast, crowned with awesome dreads and on pace for over 1100 yards receiving with our quarterback carousel—what’s not to love! The off-season free agent addition of Joe Horn has added exactly zero to our receiving corps. Leadership, my arse. On pace for the grand total of 300 yards receiving and 0 touchdowns, I’m viewing Horn, like I view Harrington—an unnecessary drain on the Falcons’ salary cap. Despite only making one catch for 10 yards, Laurent Robinson displayed incredible concentration and hands on a side-line toss from Joey H. that should have been a first down. While the stats don’t show it, keep an eye on this kid—he’s got stud written all over him. Look for Robinson and White to be fixtures at wide receiver for the Falcons for years to come.

The loss of tight end Algae Crumpler, who’s still expected to miss a couple more games, has been debilitating. Crumpler, like most pass-threat tight ends, gives opposing defenses one more thing to worry about, and gives the QB an extra option in mid-field when the wide receivers are covered. Having a healthy Algae, would help a vertically challenged Harrington greatly. Unfortunately, Dwayne Blakely and Martrez Milner, while solid blockers, just don’t pose the same pass-catching threat that a healthy Crumpler does. Interesting side note: look for the Falcons to target a Crumpler clone in the upcoming draft. It’s safe to say that Crumpler and Petrino are not exactly close friends, as evidenced by Crumpler’s documented displeasure of Petrino’s philosophy of phasing out vets in recent media stories.

DEFENSE AND SPECIAL TEAMS

On the offensive side, the 49ers are beyond atrocious, averaging the grand total of 224.3 yards per game (91.5 rushing and 132.8 passing), and get this one Falcon Fans, an average of only 13 points per game! We did only give up 16 point, but guys it’s the 49ers we played, not the Patriots. Perspective, always perspective…that is the key, fellow Falcon Fans. Without perspective…well we’d have to root for someone else….

Seriously though, I love the addition of Mike Zimmer as defensive coordinator. This guy has taken a rag-tag bunch, a depleted defensive line and a bitchy cornerback—see upcoming BLOG about DeAngelo “aka MeAngelo” Hall—and made them fairly good already. John Abraham is definitely the star of this bunch. Gotta love the six sacks and 3 forced fumbles already I can’t wait to see what Abraham will do if the rookie defensive end Jamaal Anderson “aka JAJr” decides to wake up and play like an eighth overall draft selection. While his play is far from atrocious—he’s quite good against the run—JAJr simply not getting to the quarterback. Zero sacks. Zip, zilch in the sack department thus far this season. The good news is that this kid is going to be good—freaky good. Trust me on this one. Give him some slack, fellow Falcon Fans and you shall be rewarded

I love the 6^th round nose tackle, formerly of Washburn State (where the hell is that?), Trey Lewis. 6’3” and 320 lbs., this kid has an interception already! Talk about athleticism and size. What D1 college coach missed the boat on this kid? I was skeptical of the release of Grady “I eat everything but the kitchen sink” Jackson two weeks ago. Why, I asked myself, would a team giving up over 125 yards per game rushing give up a 350 lb. + behemoth? After watching Lewis, I know why. This kid needs snaps. Amazingly, he has the quickness to be an under tackle. Once Rod Coleman and Jonathan Babineaux regain their form after battling injuries, this line will be very good—bet on it. In fact, if Lewis doesn’t hit