Buffalo Bills NFL Team Column

  By Bruce Schubert

10 June 2008

Position by Position Analysis:  Quarterbacks

The most common question I am asked about the 2008 Buffalo Bills is have they improved.  The quick answer to that is YES, but to really understand the direction of this team we need to break it down and evaluate position by position. 

 

Quarterback Depth Chart / 2007 Statistics:

                        Trent Edwards              JP Losman

Year                             2                                  5
Passing Yds                  1630                            1204
Attempts                      269                              175
Completions                  151                              111
Completion %                56.1%                          63.4%
TDs                              7                                 4
INTs                             8                                 6
Sacked                         12                                14
Rating                          70.4                             76.9    

Analysis:  The 2008 Buffalo Bills will, like many NFL teams, ultimately be defined by the play under center.  The starting quarterback is Trent Edwards who came off an impressive rookie season.  Edwards did not start 2007 as the starting quarterback.  He instead was given an opportunity when JP Losman suffered an injury during the first Patriot’s game.  Clearly he made the most of this open door.  Trent Edwards is not a superior athlete to Losman, but his leadership and cool demeanor under center are assets the Bills have sorely lacked.  His abilities to read a defense and perform under pressure were very impressive for a rookie.  Additionally, Edwards appears to clearly understand his roll with the team as protect the ball, distribute the ball efficiently and lean on a strong running game.  Trent Edwards started 9 games and while he began 5 and 1 he finished the season with a 5 and 4 record.  More importantly he earned the  confidence of the coaching staff.

Standing behind Edwards is JP Losman.  Losman is in the final year of his contract and likely on his way out of Buffalo.  In the end, Buffalo would probably be willing to part ways with Losman via a mid season trade should an appealing offer come forward.  At this point, it isn’t likely, but injuries can occur at any time either throwing Losman into Buffalo’s starting role again or sending him to another team looking for help.  JP Losman is a physically capable quarterback with a strong arm, dangerous scrambling potential and a very good ability to throw on the run.  Some say his physical abilities are limited by his decision making, but this often appeared to be more the results of poor play calling by the offensive staff in Buffalo.

Third String:  Gibran Hamdan:  A second year NFL player with experience from Indiana University and NFL Europe.

Positives:  Overall the quarterback position in Buffalo is very deep.  The hope of the team is to avoid a sophomore slump from Edwards.  The addition of James Hardy to the receiving corp that already included Lee Evans, Roscoe Parrish and Josh Reed appears to offer fuel to the belief that Edwards will positively grow.  Edwards understands the strengths of this team and should work within those limits.  Simply put, this is not a team needing 40+ touchdowns from the quarterback position to make the playoffs.  In fact, the number of turnovers from the quarterback will likely be a more telling and important stat than the number of touchdown passes, completions or yards.  To assist Edwards in his development the Bills have turned the Offensive Coordinator position over to Turk Schonert as the replacement for the departed Steve Fairchild.  Schonert was previously the Bills quarterback coach and is expected to balance not changing the system with better play calling to take advantage of Buffalo strengths, but more to come on those later as big play strikes via the air are not in this category.  If Edwards should stumble, there is JP Losman who would love another opportunity to prove what he can do at the NFL level.

Negatives:  Yes, Edwards should feel confident.  He was selected by the current coaching staff.  He was given the starting job permanently following impressive play.  He now has a training camp to go through getting starter repetitions with the number one team.  However, JP Losman had high expectations entering 2007 as the team’s starter.  If Buffalo opens the season with a losing record (as they have done the last two years) will the coaching staff remain confident in Edwards?  Will they turn to Losman?  Turning to Losman for any reason other than injury would be a major step backwards for this team.  Losman is absolutely leaving Buffalo at the end of the 08 season at the latest.  He has been made the starter four times and pulled as the starter four times.  His confidence is in need of new surroundings.  Losman’s pending free agency will result in his signing else where to find a chance to start over and compete for a starting job.

How Acquired:

Trent Edwards: Third round draft choice of Buffalo in 2007 (92^nd Overall)

JP Losman: Second of two first round draft choices for Buffalo in 2004 (22^nd Overall)

Contracts:

Trent Edwards: Signed in 2007 to a 4 year contract worth an undisclosed amount.

JP Losman:                   Signed in 2004 to a 5 year contract worth $7.7M. $5.5M guaranteed.  Incentives up to $24M

Quarterback Rankings:

2007 Position Score (0 – 10, 10 is Outstanding):  Losman:  4  Edwards:  5

2008 Predicted Score (0 – 10, 10 is Outstanding):  Edwards:  6  Losman:  5

Edwards had a solid rookie season and should continue the positive growth with a full season in the top position including training camp, better play calling from the new Offensive Coordinator, and a BIG new receiver.  Losman’s score from 2007 to 2008 was improved as a subtle tribute to his outstand attitude.  His career has had ups and downs, but his perspective and maturity is very impressive.  It is believed he will understand his roll with the team and make the most of it, whatever it turns out to be.

2008 Overall Position Score (0 – 10, 10 is Outstanding):  6

Quarterback Fantasy Football Value:  Buffalo’s quarterbacks are not high value players unless you play in a deep league.  This is not a high octane offense.  Barring injury to Trent Edwards his 2008 statistics forecast as follows:

 

Predicted 2008 statistics:  QB Trent Edwards             

Year                             2
Passing Yards                  3100
Attempts                      400
Completions                 250
Completion %              62.5%
TDs                              20
INTs                            13
Sacked                         12                               
Rating                           90

Next up for analysis is the strength of Buffalo’s Offense:  Running Backs.

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26 May 2008

Buffalo Bills Pre 2008 Season Roster Moves:

Coming out of the 2008 NFL Draft the Buffalo Bills Roster is considerably more complete.  Universally agreed upon, the Bills succeeded in addressing their two highest priorities:  A starting defensive back and a starting wide receiver.  More than simply addressing these needs they potentially hit the jackpot. 

Round #1, 12^th Overall Pick:  Leodis McKelvin (DB, 5’10”, 184 lbs), Troy University, will be a starting defensive back opposite Terrance McGee from day one.  His cover skills, size and speed will quickly be assets to Buffalo’s improving defense.  Although he was widely criticized for his relatively poor hands while playing at Troy University, quarterbacks beware.  His return ability is deadly as evidenced by his matching of the career NCAA kick / punt returns record of eight returns in his college career.  Adding McKelvin’s cover skills alone betters the Bills’ roster, but the vision of adding McKelvin to the Kick and Punt Return units of the Bills is potential for immediate investment returns along the lines of Devin Hester. 

Yes, these are lofty comparisons, but consider the Buffalo Bills return units under Special Teams / Assistant Head Coach Bobby April.  Coach April was promoted to Assistant Head Coach following the consistent performance excellence of the last few years.  Of particular interest is the return game:  2007:  Roscoe Parish led the NFL in punt return average of 16.3 yards per return.  Obviously this is an outstanding average, but it should be noted that Parrish’s punt return average through November 2007 was 19.3 yards per return (On 27 returns).  This was the highest average since 1961 (Dick Christy, NY Titans).  2006:  Terrance McGee finished fifth in the NFL in kickoff return average (26.1).  2005:  Terrance McGee led the NFL in kickoff return average (30.2).

Round #2, 41^st Overall Pick:  James Hardy (WR, 6’5” 212 lbs), Indiana University, was one of several potential wide receivers the Buffalo Bills could have selected.  It was widely rumored that the Bills were enamored with Devin Thomas of Michigan State or Oklahoma’s Malcolm Kelly.  Once the Bills selected McKelvin in the first round they waited to see which of the large possession type receivers fell to them in the second round.  James Hardy was the third receiver taken off the board.  He brings outstanding potential when paired with Lee Evans.  Lee Evan’s speed and quickness force defenses to defend him deep while James Hardy’s size (6’5” 212 lbs) should cause matchup issues particularly in the red zone where he terrorized the Big 10 over a three career.  Hardy’s accomplishments include scoring the third most career receiving touchdowns in Big 10 history.  This statistic trails only Braylon Edwards (Michigan) with 39 and Anthony Carter (Michigan) with 37, but Edwards and Carter each set their marks in four seasons while Hardy accomplished 36 scores in three seasons.

Round #3, 72nd Overall Pick:  Chris Ellis (DE, 6’4”, 261 lbs).  Chris Ellis is a Defensive End out of Virginia Tech.  Yes, Buffalo is hoping for half the success they had with their last Virginia Tech Defensive End (Bruce Smith, 1^st Overall in 1985).  Ellis is a Defensive End with good edge pass rushing skills and he’s in an ideal situation in Buffalo.  Buffalo is deep at the DE position with Aaron Schobel, Chris Kelsay, and Ryan Denney so waiting for him to develop while getting some time as a situational rusher is fine for now.

Round #4, 114th Overall Pick:  Reggie Corner (DB, 5’9”, 175 lbs).  Corner’s great leaping ability and opportunistic interceptions through his college career more than made up for his lack of size.  A couple of stats really speak to the level Corner is capable of:  15 career intercepts and in 48 career games at Akron Corner either intercepted or deflected a pass in 28 of them. 

Round #4, 132nd Overall Pick:  Derek Fine (TE, 6’3”, 247 lbs).  Derek Fine was not considered one of the premier tight ends in the draft, but he was listed as solid in all regards.  Most consider him a hybrid type player who is somewhere between a Full Back, Tight End and H-Back.  He’s a good blocker from any position with solid receiving ability (46 receptions, 394 yards, four touchdowns in '07).  Clearly he will have a roll on Buffalo’s special teams units and depending on the new offense under Kurt Schonert may find himself some offensive time as well.

Round #5, 147th Overall Pick:  Alvin Bowen (LB / SS, 6’1”, 222 lbs).  Alvin Bowen is a player that needs to find his niche in the NFL.  For the Iowa State Cyclones he was a tackling machine leading the nation with 95 solo tackles / 12.92 per game as a junior.  He has very good coverage skills leading some to believe he may be moved to Strong Safety.

Round #6, 179th Overall Pick:  Xavier Omen (RB, 5’11”, 227 lbs).  At first glance you wouldn’t expect to see the Bills draft a running with their current stable of Lynch, Jackson, and Wright, however, when someone has the career Omen had at Div II Northwest Missouri State this has to fall in the best available draft pick category.  Omon led D2 with 2,337 rushing yards at 6.3 yards per touch.  This included 37 touchdowns in 2007.  A one year wonder?  Not this one.  Omon is the first back in NCAA history to rush for 1500+ yards in four straight seasons.

Round #7, 219th Overall Pick:  Demetrius Bell (OT, 6’5”, 307 lbs).  Bell, a Northwestern State product, is a project.  Fortunately Buffalo is a good fit for an Offensive Tackle project with starters Jason Peters and Langston Walkers.  He’s new to the position, but a natural athlete with good potential.  Practice squad is written all over this one.  One interesting fact:  Bell is the son of former NBA star Karl Malone.

Round #7, 224th Overall Pick:  Steve Johnson (WR, 6’2”, 202 lbs).    Johnson has the size Buffalo is lacking, but clearly he’ll have to either find a place via special teams or the practice squad.  His career at Kentucky really took off following injuries to significant members of the Wildcats offense (RB Rafael Little and WR Keenan Burton) allowing Johnson to start in 10 of 13 games.  This opportunity resulted in a 1,000 yard season with 13 touchdowns. 

Round #7, 251st Overall Pick:  Kennard Cox (DB, 6’0”, 192 lbs).  Kennard Cox is a good corner with very good special teams skills.  Special teams is the obvious fit for Cox, but this will wash out in training camp.

All of these picks followed a free agency and trading period that netted several roster improvements.  Most notably Marcus Stroud, Kawika Mitchell and Will James were added. 

Marcus Stroud was traded for by the Buffalo Bills following seven seasons in Jacksonville.  These seasons included three (2003-2005) pro-bowls and 13 games missed due to injury in 2006 and 2007 combined.  Today Stroud is 29 and the Bills find themselves looking to resurrect the pro-bowl career with few games missed.  In the end, it was Stroud’s size and ability against the run that drew Buffalo to him.  They traded a third and fifth round pick to Jacksonville for his rights. 

Kawika Mitchell was drafted by the Kansas City Chiefs in the 2nd round of the 2003 draft.  His statistics were solid in New York including several key plays in the last year’s Super Bowl upset over the New England Patriots. 

Will James was drafted by the New York Giants in the 3rd round of the 2001 draft.  His play was never completely appreciated in Philadelphia, but this was largely due to the number of injuries he suffered through. 

Today a fourth factor beyond the draft, free agency and trades should be taken into account when evaluating the Buffalo Bills roster, the return of injured personnel.  Yes, this factor exists, at least to some extent, for all teams, but for Buffalo, 2007 was a little extreme in this department.  In 2007, Buffalo led the NFL in players sent to the Injured Reserve list with 17.

The returning injured players most likely to impact Buffalo’s play include:  Paul Posluszny, Ko Simpson, Chris Kelsay, George Wilson, and Derek Schouman

With all of the above taken into consideration, Buffalo’s new starting lineup projects as follows:

Offense:
RT:      Langston Walker
RG:      Brad Butler
C:        Melvin Fowler
LG:      Derrick Dockery
LT:      Jason Peters
TE:      Robert Royal
QB:     Trent Edwards
RB:      Marshawn Lynch
FB:      Darian Barnes
WR:     Lee Evans
WR:     James Hardy 

Defense:
RE:      Aaron Schobel
RT:      Marcus Stroud
LT:      John McCargo
LE:      Chris Kelsay
OLB:    Angelo Crowell
MLB:    Paul Posluszny
OLB:    Kawika Mitchell
SS:      Donte Witner
FS:      Ko Simpson
DB:     Terrance McGee
DB:     Leodis McKelvin

A projection of Buffalo’s roster battles, position by position analysis and upcoming season matchups is coming soon

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