Atlanta Falcons
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NFL Team Column |
An Early Off-Season Assessment of The Falcons Needs
And Referencing The Success of The Indianapolis Colts As A Guide and A Highly Controversial “What If…” Scenario from The 2008 Draft
The 2010 draft is shaping up to be a fairly deep one, at least as recent drafts go. In that, one may balk at the Falcons fortunes as they seemingly have picks only in the first, third, fourth, fifth and sixth-rounds. This is due to the trades for former Kansas City Chiefs tight end Tony Gonzalez (which cost them their second-round pick) and for St. Louis Rams castoff cornerback Ty Hill (acquired at the expense of a seventh-round pick). However…the key word here is seemingly.
Last spring, Falcons general manager Thomas Demitroff let a variety of starters from the Falcons defense depart, including linebackers Keith Brooking (the highest-paid replacement level hometown hero in Atlanta’s linebacker history dating back to the Paleozoic era), Michael Boley, defensive tackle Grady “I’m This Fat Yet I’m Awful At The Point of Attack” Jackson, and cornerback Dominique Foxworth.
Question: So what does this mean for the 2010 draft?
Answer: Compensatory Selections (potentially four of them).
I am going to go on a limb here and say that it ends up being three picks (and I will explain why) but I could easily be proven wrong on this. The NFL has a fairly complex and unknown formula for how they award compensatory selections to teams. In theory, if a team loses an unrestricted free-agent, the level of compensation they receive depends on a.) what the team lost in terms of previous playing time and production (i.e. starter versus a backup) b.) what the team acquiring said player gained in terms of playing time and production and c.) the contract market value of the said departing player compared to the rest of the free-agent market at his position.
In light of this, I predict that the Falcons will acquire anywhere from a third-round to a fourth-round pick for Foxworth (who left Baltimore and was paid about the fourth highest contract on the free-agent cornerback market last off-season), potentially a fourth-round pick for Brooking who started most of the year in Dallas, a fourth-round pick for Boley who departed to the Giants and started most of the year before a season-ending injury and a seventh-round pick for Jackson, who did his two-downs and a breather routine for the whimpering Detroit Lions.
The X-factor pick will be for Brooking due to the signing of Mike Peterson that the Falcons made from the Jacksonville Jaguars.
What this further reinforces in my mind is why teams, in general, should not re-sign free-agents that are deemed replacement level players and why they should DEFINITELY not sign aging players/replacement-level veterans to replace said departures. The reason for this is simple; what a team gains in a compensatory selection, if used for said departed player, could likely produce a player of comparing level production but at a significantly greater value.
Last off-season, I campaigned for the Atlanta Falcons to start Stephen Nicholas in place of Brooking on the weak-side and to use the draft to acquire a strong-side linebacker (although Nicholas, despite his smaller stature, has proven adept on running downs, albeit in a limited sample size, when he has played, making him a potential strong-side starting candidate as well). The problem I had with Peterson’s signing was not that it was a bad signing. He was a relatively good value, a good locker-room type leader athlete and knew head coach Mike Smith’s system from their days together in Jacksonville. The problem was a.) he is on the wrong-side of 30 b.) he has no upside and c.) he will end up potentially costing the Falcons a decently high compensatory selection (as he “cancels out” the Brooking signing as both had comparable seasons in terms of starts, impact and contract value).
In general, what teams that have excelled the last few years using 4-3 schemes with a good line in front of them have taught me is that 4-3 linebackers in particular are fairly easy to replace with low-cost parts. Look no further than the Indianapolis Colts in this upcoming week’s Super Bowl. None of the Colts linebackers are what one would call high-end in terms of the market value of their contracts. Clint Sessions in particular has excelled this year and has shown that linebackers do not need to be a heavy investment for a 4-3 team, particularly if they are not the starting middle linebacker.
The Falcons right now are set in the middle with Curtis Lofton and, again I say, they need to give Nicholas a shot on either of the other flanking outside positions, if only to find out what they have in him. The remaining starting position could then be addressed, I believe, in the third round or later.
Based on an early assessment of the 2010 draft and where it is strong and weak, I believe the Falcons should address their needs as follows (this is subject to change as I gather more information on prospects in the coming months) with their early-round (pre-round four) selections:
First-round: Defensive End
Jamaal Anderson is clearly a bust. John Abraham will not last forever and is also on the wrong-side of 30. Kroy Biermann and Lawrence Sidbury are best in a third-down role where they can pin their ears back and not worry about rush lane responsibilities. While the Atlanta secondary was horrible last year, particularly at cornerback, this could be an issue of correlation to a lack of a pass-rush rather than inherent causation (due to a lack of talent; although the Atlanta cornerbacks are by no means going to evoke Champ Bailey or Darrell Revis).
The late Bill Walsh said that the “key to winning in the NFL is a pass-rush late in the game.” Yes, that’s right folks; the same man who pioneered the West Coast Offense and was labeled The Genius primarily for said offense and bringing precision to an NFL who’s passing game principles was built on relative anarchy at the time and who built one of the NFL’s longest running dynasties ever did not boil late-game success to anything related to his offensive prowess. For Walsh, he knew that preserving a lead built up by an explosive offense came down to getting to the other team’s quarterback when it mattered—late in the game. This was something the Falcons simply did not do all of 2009.
In addition to defensive end, the offensive line is more of an issue than initially meets the eye as well as Tyson Clabo (offensive tackle) and Harvey Dahl (guard) are set to be UFA’s.
What I find interesting about this need is how it harkens back to the 2008 draft. I will be one of the honest few and admit that I advocated that Atlanta trade down from the number three pick, not select a certain quarterback from Boston College named Matt Ryan (nor the “safe pick” of the day, LSU defensive tackle Glenn Dorsey), acquire additional selections and then use their now lower (and cheaper) first-round pick to grab Boise State offensive tackle Ryan Clady (who I’ve heard is a fairly solid offensive tackle for the Broncos now—sarcasm intended as he is arguably the best offensive tackle in football).
The previous Michael Vick debacle season that was 2007 saw both a rash of injuries to the offensive line along with a dropoff in talent at the tackle positions. Todd Weiner, while competent, was nearing the end of the line and the Falcons had nothing to speak of on the left side. While I liked Ryan more than any other prospect at quarterback in that draft, I thought it foolish to put him on the field behind the offensive line Atlanta was going to have in front of him. I did not want to see Ryan go the route of former Texans number one pick David Carr or current Rams punching bag Marc Bulger and get utterly beat into the ground his first few years behind an incompetent line.
From what I read at the time, there were two very attractive offers on the table as well. The Ravens were in love with Ryan and wanted to trade their first-round pick, second-round pick (#8 and #38 respectively), a fourth-round pick (#103) and a 2009 third-round pick to the St. Louis Rams for their #2 selection, get ahead of Atlanta, and select Ryan. While the Rams did not swing on the offer, one can reasonably assume that the offer was there for Atlanta as well.
Another (and less validated) set of reports from the time said the Saints were clawing over themselves to move up to select Glenn Dorsey. The two reports for offers I heard most often were they were willing to offer their first and second-round picks that year (#10 and #40 respectively) and their first-round selection in 2009 to move up to select Dorsey. The other offer was the #10 selection and offensive tackle Jamaal Brown. Quite frankly, either offer looked massively appealing to me and the former is one I would have jumped on in a heartbeat, dealing with a divisional rival or not.
In 20/20 hindsight too, this could have made sense. While Dorsey has been somewhat miscast in Kansas City, one has to wonder if the massive cost the Saints would have given up to get him (Malcolm Jenkins and Tracy Porter, the guy who picked off Brett Favre in the NFC Championship Game in overtime) would have actually come back to help Atlanta more this year than selecting Ryan. Not having Sedrick Ellis would be a wash as he is looking like an average/replacement level defensive tackle being paid a not-so-average top-ten pick salary. Plus, the Saints would be paying Dorsey even more than Ellis is getting and, as mentioned, not have Jenkins and Porter in the secondary.
As the 2008 season panned out, Michael Turner made the offensive line look really good, the line itself stayed healthy (as continuity is vital to a line’s success) and Matt Ryan displayed both a play-action fake that was fooling cameramen nationwide and a pocket awareness that made said line look better than it was. However, while this made the line look like a strength heading into 2009, one could see signs of fault in this view if they looked deeper. The Falcons lack depth along the line at almost all positions and injuries on offense are always more costly to a team than those on defense. Beyond that, I have always believed that the tackle that Atlanta traded up for in 2008, Sam Baker, is best-served inside at either guard position.
Hence, we enter 2009 in need of a blind-side upgrade for Matt Ryan, along with potential starters for both spots on the right side depending on what Atlanta chooses to do with regards to Clabo and Dahl.
As this is a fairly deep draft at offensive tackle, I believe the Falcons could potentially go the route of an offensive tackle in round one and find good value as well. However, if the Falcons do advocate going offensive tackle with their first pick, I would trade down into the second-round and acquire at least one more selection due to the depth at the position in this draft. Either that or, if the right player falls, packaging picks to trade up into the second-round for an offensive tackle or promising pass-rushing end that can be an every-down starter.
FOR THE RECORD: I am not saying in the imagined 2008 Draft scenario that picking Matt Ryan (in reality) was a bad pick. Clearly, he is one of the best young quarterbacks in the league. There is no more important position to lock down than the man who steps under center every week and the Falcons have this dealt with for the next ten years. That is huge. Just ask the Green Bay Packers of recent vintage, the New England Patriots, the San Diego Chargers, the Indianapolis Colts and the Philadelphia Eagles. Before them, the San Francisco 49ers and the Dallas Cowboys can link much of their success to having a few legends named Joe Montana/Steve Young and Troy Aikman dropping back from center every week. Again though…as this is primarily an NFL draft site…one has to wonder what might have been for 2009 with any of the scenarios I painted playing out. Plus, my scenario would have given Atlanta the #13 pick in the 2009 draft; one just a few spots ahead of where the New York Jets traded up from to pick a rookie quarterback named Mark Sanchez who was playing a decent game last week in the AFC Championship and looks as though he will mature into a solid, if not as spectacular (and even this is still up for debate) as Ryan, caliber of quarterback.
Third-round: Linebacker and/or Cornerback.
Again, I say and/or because it could perhaps (and I believe likely) end up being a scenario where the Falcons are awarded at least one compensatory pick in this round, if not two (less likely). I have always believed that 4-3 teams are built around a strong middle (i.e. good defensive tackles who can tie up blockers, a versatile linebacker in the center, and ballhawking/hard-hitting—ideally both—safeties). The edges, particularly at cornerback and linebacker, flow out of that strong center. In that, these positions can be filled with adequate starters in this round or later I believe.
On the free-agency front, I think that Aaron Kampman could be a great addition at defensive end. He is stewing about Green Bay playing a 3-4 scheme, one in which he is miscast as a linebacker, and wants out of town. While I likely see the Minnesota Vikings trying to sign him on the cheap (division rivalry/furthering the Brett Favre and “ex-Green Bay Packers Moving to Minnesota For Revenge” theme), Atlanta could be a good landing spot as well. Playing alongside John Abraham would be a selling point, as would playing on the fast turf of the Georgia Dome (i.e. more sacks for Kampman than on grass). I am rarely a believer in spending money in free-agency but Kampman could be a fairly “cheap” addition that would address a major need for Atlanta as well. In addition, unlike the Peterson signing a year ago, Kampman still has some upside to him as well and is not on the declining side of his skill-set. Beyond that, the collective bargaining agreement situation and the lack of a salary-cap for the NFL in 2010 means that the contract could be fairly front-loaded so as to lessen impact in future (and likely capped) years.
In addition, the restricted free-agency front is stronger than I have ever seen it. Typically, teams avoid this market due to the inherent draft choice compensation involved (the minimum tender gives at least a matching round draft selection in whatever round the player was originally selected in) in this market. However, this year’s list of RFA’s is incredibly talented and loaded with younger players. In fact, if I were a team with a top-ten pick this year (where draft choices are inherently given disproportionately large contracts compared to the veteran, i.e. proven players, market) and could not find a trade partner, I would seriously consider using said pick on one of the many attractive RFA’s ot there who may be given a first-round tender.
Per this article from the writers at Football Outsiders, I think the RFA’s that could make a lot of sense for Atlanta to pursue would be Marcus McNeill, the current left tackle for the San Diego Chargers, or (so as to weaken a rival) Jamaal Brown of the soon-to-be-Super-Bowl-something-or-others New Orleans Saints. Both would be good schematic fits, fitting the mold of wide-bodied maulers that Mike Smith wants up front to open holes for Michael Turner. The reason I slate McNeill higher is the possible tenders both will receive. McNeill was a second-round pick in 2006 versus Brown being a first-round pick from 2005. If each club tenders at the original round compensation level, then McNeill is clearly the better value.
Logan Mankins of New England (offensive guard) is also an RFA but will likely be re-signed by New England from all reports I am reading. I am more in favor of spending money on tackles and not guards (as elite tackles tend to be found higher in the draft while guards are fairly easy to find after round one…although research finds that guards selected in round one tend to be elite players) as well so this signing would likely not be wise for Atlanta.
Again, so much of what could happen here will depend on what tenders players are given and what UFA’s are resigned, not to mention any pre-draft trade shakeups (a la Jay Cutler last year and possibly Donovan McNabb of the Eagles or any of the many talented RFA’s this year) but, as things progress this off-season and we get closer to free-agency and the draft, I will update my views on what I would do if I were in Thomas Demitroff’s position.
It's Been a Long Time Coming
The Two-Faces To The Atlanta Falcons; A Summation of the 2009 Season Through Sunday’s Loss To The Saints
Per predictions I made earlier this year, the Falcons are in fact turning out to be a Charles Dickens’-esque “Tale of Two Teams” (as opposed to Cities) type of team this 2009 NFL season.
On the one-hand, even with a somewhat struggling and inconsistent ground game, the Atlanta Falcons offense has consistently put up respectable numbers. While the current toe injury to Matt Ryan has cast a pale on recent weeks, the explosive air attack he has fueled has kept Atlanta in most games this year, even those games that have been lost. However, the main problems for the Atlanta Falcons come when the offense has to step off of the field and subside to whatever cards the defense then deals them for their next time taking the field.
Typically, this 2009 Atlanta Falcons defense has been characterized by these traits:
*An Inability to Stop Number One Receivers
This problem could very easily be two-fold. On the one hand, the Falcons have pedestrian caliber cornerbacks at best. The Falcons, based off of the advanced metris I use to measure team performance (which use a comparison-based analysis, averaging out how teams perform on a situational level across the NFL), the Falcons are 32.5 percent worse than the average team in the NFL at defending against another team’s number one receiver.
While the cornerback play for Atlanta this year has been awful, all of the blame cannot be attributed to Chris Houston, Brent Grimes, and Chevis Jackson (the top three cornerbacks on Atlanta’s depth chart) for Atlanta’s pass defense woes. There is a second part to the equation in Atlanta’s problems with defending in the passing game.
*Outside of John Abraham and Kroy Biermann, the Falcons Lack A Pass Rush
One of my predictions for the 2009 Falcons was tentative, namely, that John Abraham would get hurt again (as, prior to this year, he has never had a year where he has started all games for two straight seasons) IF the Falcons did not rotate him more to keep him fresh. For all of the Atlanta defense woes this year, they HAVE successfully done this right. Kroy Biermann, a fifth-round pick a year ago, has come off the bench on third-downs and given the Falcons a very solid pass rush. However, the problems come on downs one and two for Atlanta in this department.
*Atlanta’s Middle-of-the-Pack Rush Defense Stats Are Deceptive
Based off of the situational-based statistics I use to average out performance across the league, Atlanta SEEMS to be doing well in defending the run, coming in ranked as the 15th best team in the NFL for rush defense. However, this house of mirrors only serves to reflect what all teams know; why run on Atlanta when you can THROW to your heart’s content?
I think it is safe to label 2007 first-round defensive end Jamal Anderson a major bust. He simply does not get to the passer. He has a very long first-step and lacks the suddenness and ability to stay low and bend his body (essential for an end who is 6’7”). If anything, he has been more effective paired inside this year next to Jonathan Babineaux (a surprising pass-rusher from the inside who, at present, is facing a potential suspsension due to a marijuana possession charge). Regardless though, he is a player that has not paired with Abraham on the early downs to give Atlanta a competent dual-side pass rush from the edges.
Abraham started off the year a house on fire within the first few games but he is now settling down to earth. Teams simply do not respect the other side of Atlanta’s defensive line and can slide protection over to Abraham. This is somewhat negated on third-downs as Biermann provides a competent presence on the other side but he is not an every-down end.
To Atlanta’s credit on defense, they are near the middle-of-the-pack in defending against tight ends in the passing game. Again though, a part of this is they play in a division with no real threats at tight end (Jeremy Shockey is above-average for New Orleans, as is Kellen Winslow with Tampa Bay but the latter is stuck on an awful team). This combined with, again, a weak set of cornerbacks and a lack of a pass-rush make Atlanta ripe for long plays along the sidelines.
On the other side of the ball, Atlanta is ranking near the middle in all categories this year on offense but that is somewhat skewed by the recent loss of Matt Ryan. The offense has been affected by injuries as well, besides that to Ryan. Losing Jerious Norwood for a time took an element of explosiveness out of the Atlanta offense as well as the return game that has since been restored with his return. However, Ryan and his pocket awareness has made the offensive line look better than it truly is the last two years. The last few weeks with Chris Redman has shown that a quarterback has a huge impact on an offensive line’s performance in the passing game. Compare Ryan to Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers first-half performance and one can see what it looks like to have a young, stud quarterback with all of the tools physically but also has a mental awareness around him that matches his physical abilities. Ryan is very cerebral for a young player while Rodgers and Redman (while a veteran) are simply not as aware of the pocket.
LOOKING AHEAD:
There are a few things Atlanta needs to address on the personnel front this off-season.
--They need to get a competent pass-rusher at end to pair with Abraham on early downs.
--A shutdown cornerback would help the rest of the secondary greatly. These types of players do not grow on trees however and are typically tough to acquire in free-agency (see the Oakland Raiders slapping the franchise tag within about 1.3 seconds on Nnamdi Asomugha, the best cornerback in football and then proceeding to give him a contract that is higher than the GDP of certain Third-World countries).
--They should secure Norwood with a long contract. While Michael Turner is the bread-and-butter to the running game, Norwood’s style complements Turner perfectly. Turner lacks the precise agility to make fine cuts in traffic, being a very north-south type runner. If Atlanta wants to spread the defense out more with multiple receivers (a wise route with Matt Ryan under center and the weapons available in their passing game), Norwood is the better back to go with, despite Turner’s number one back status.
--While he has been out of this world good this year and is again pushing back the hands of time, Atlanta tight end Tony Gonzalez needs to have a young apprentice brought in. Tight ends are fairly easy to find in rounds later than the first two in the NFL draft so Atlanta does not need to worry too much about where to find this player in my view but they would be wise to bring in this replacement sooner than later.
--Will Svitek is not a long-term answer at left tackle and Sam Baker may be better inside, meaning a left tackle could also be a welcome addition for the Falcons. I noted in the Washington game earlier this year that Ryan looked particularly skittish in the pocket as the Redskins excellent left-side combo of Brian Orakpo and Albert Haynesworth kept him sweating all game. While that pair is a somewhat abnormally good blind-side pairing, Atlanta as a whole has let Ryan get hit too much from the left-side of the offensive line this year. This needs to be remedied.
The Graybeards Still Got It
Gonzalez and Peterson Spark Falcons Opening Victory Over Miami, 19-7
Admittedly, he is Tony Gonzalez; only the man who sparked the revolution with the tight end position in the NFL over the last decade. Like Kellen Winslow before him, Gonzalez spent a little over a decade with the Kansas City Chiefs redefining the role of a tight end in the passing scheme. Be it held close to the line as per conventional alignments, flexed out wide, in the slot, or set off the line in a flexible H-back type position, Gonzalez showed a knack for sneaky route running, deep speed that threatened the center of any defense, incredibly reliable hands, and outstanding leaping ability in jump-ball situations (the man was a basketball player in college as well). However, I personally viewed his acquisition by the Falcons with a bit of trepidation. Record-setter and future Hall-of-Fame athlete that he may be, the man was going into the 2009 season 33 years-old. While many have been projecting declines for Gonzalez the last few years, he has avoided Father Time thus far, a feat made all the more amazing considering how much of a morose his former team, the Kansas City Chiefs, have been on offense the last few years.
This Sunday though, Gonzalez more than showed his worth, hauling in a twenty-yard touchdown pass from Matt Ryan. What was more impressive than just the touchdown was how Gonzalez pulled the feat off. He caught a short pass in the flat from Ryan, then made a cut to the inside that showed great agility. Miami safety Yeremiah Bell was the closest defender and, while making his cut, Gonzalez shoved him off with his left hand. Wide receiver Roddy White helped spring Gonzalez with a nice block but even that block was brought about by Gonzalez’ juke that temporarily froze Will Allen long enough for White to engage the block. That touchdown catch put Gonzalez into an elite stratosphere of receiver, becoming the 21st player in NFL history to cross the 11,000 yards receiving threshold. The team as a whole did a good job of spreading the wealth on offense, with four players hauling in four or more passes. Gonzalez may be aging, but he is still capable of threatening a defense deep, evidenced in Atlanta targeting him six times (out of the total of nine targeted passes) down the field at ten or more yards through the air.
If there was any consistent theme in Sunday’s victory it was “don’t count out the old men just yet.” In addition to Gonzalez’ 5-catch, 73 yard performance, the main defensive acquisition of note for Atlanta this off-season, linebacker Mike Peterson, made two game-changing plays, forcing a fumble off of a ferocious hit as well as making a fingertip interception. He joked after the game about how he “has the best hands on the team but nobody here believed me.”
The defense as a whole for Atlanta, the sore spot for this team, held up well against the innovative Miami offense. The much-acclaimed Wildcat formation (essentially a recreation of the single-wing offense from years past) was contained, albeit with an asterisk. Miami rookie quarterback (and wide receiver…and halfback; as the Wildcat makes a backfield player capable of multiple roles) Pat White had a chance to gash the Atlanta defense but disconnected on a deep pass with Ted Ginn in the first half. The play was set up well, with two backs next to White and TE
TE Anthony Fasano set off the line in a flex/wing type position. Outside was Ginn who ran a deep post that was opened up after White froze the safeties with a well-executed play-action fake. However, while Ginn had more than a few steps on the Atlanta safeties, White overthrew him by about five yards. As a whole though, the Atlanta defense did very well maintaining gap integrity and not abandoning assignments, two keys to defending the Wildcat, as shown in the NFL.com link. For the record, I think Brian Billick is an utter idiot in his explanation of what the Wildcat isn’t and Mike Mayock completely schools him in this video with a very logical explanation of the formation’s versatility.
While Atlanta may have to play a very conservative defense all year long to make up for its shortcomings and relative inexperience in the secondary, they will be able to do that if they continue to have the pass rush that they had Sunday. Picking up from his should have been an All-Pro season last year, defensive end John Abraham notched two sacks. A key to keeping Abraham healthy and fresh will be to rotate him in and out constantly and Kroy Biermann, a fifth-round selection last year, proved effective in a sub-rotation at defensive end, notching a forced fumble on the second play of the game and ended up with two sacks himself.
Naturally, what would a review of the Falcons be without discussing The Franchise; quarterback Matt Ryan. Again, this young man showed on Sunday why he was the best possible choice last year at the number three spot in the draft.
Facing heavy pressure Sunday that forced him to both unload early and occasionally throw the ball away, combined with running back Michael Turner being utterly stuffed the whole day, Ryan did more than his fair share to lead the Falcons. The man I have been campaigning for now for two years to get the ball more finally got to show some of his stuff Sunday, with running back Jerious Norwood going for more yards receiving (49) than Roddy White (42). Ryan’s unflappable nature came out early though, despite the pressure of Miami’s defense. In the 2nd quarter, he threw a very nice backside skinny post to Michael Jenkins for a 22 yard-gain that was thrown on the money. Not only was the throw the right read (Atlanta was in a four receiver set that ended with three on the right side after White went in motion, left to right), he threw the ball in such a way to keep Jenkins alive as there was a Miami safety bearing in on him quickly.
Ryan threw the pass low and slightly under Jenkins, allowing him to both come back a bit as well as sit down immediately and avoid a monstrous collision. It is these many little fine details that continually impress me about Ryan; for a player of his experience level, he is already showing an awareness that separates the elite quarterbacks from the rest of the crowd. A few plays later, White and Ryan connected on a third and eleven play where Ryan rifled a pass in between two Miami defenders that White sat down in between in a perfect read of the zone coverage that Miami was in.
Overall, the Atlanta offense showed that it is likely to transition to more of a pass-focused team than they were a year ago this past Sunday. In addition, while not a stellar performance from the secondary, the Atlanta front-seven did an excellent job of playing disciplined as well as generating a ferocious pass rush, sparking the team’s first victory over Miami, 19-7.
NEXT WEEK: vs. Carolina.
An Early Assessment Of The 2009 Atlanta Falcons
In order to assess where the 2009 Atlanta Falcons are headed, one must look back and see where the 2008 Falcons left. Their season, arguably the biggest surprise success story in the NFL last year, ended when Larry Fitzgerald began his epic post-season run by making mince-meat out of the Atlanta secondary in last year’s 30-24 wild-card playoff loss. Kurt Warner left the field with a clean jersey, not sacked even once by the Falcons defense, going 19 of 32 for 271 yards. Fitzgerald, the uber-extraordinary wide receiver, began his post-season domination by hauling in 6 passes for 101 yards.
That loss highlighted the primary weakness of the 2009 Falcons and that was defending passes up the middle of their defense. As a whole, the Falcons were relatively stable on the corners despite their motley crew collection of players that they had at cornerback all year long. Some of their success, perhaps more so aversion from failure, was aided by a zone-scheme that kept most of the action in front of them but also a career-year for defensive end John Abraham. In addition, the Falcons were also one of the worse teams defending the run, particularly up the middle of their defense.
While the addition of Matt Ryan at quarterback and the prized addition of Michael Turner at running back helped to give the Falcons an offense that looks to be formidable for years to come, there is still work that needs to be done on the defensive side of the ball.
Unfortunately, the majority of what ailed the Falcons at the end of the 2008 season still will ride with them into 2009; their defense will be one-year older and they are still weak in coverage at linebacker, safety and have reduced depth at cornerback. In addition, the Falcons were one of the healthiest teams in the league last year on both sides of the ball, meaning a return to the median is likely to come about in 2009.
A greater analysis, one that will break the 2009-2010 Atlanta Falcons down by individual units, will be coming from me in the coming weeks but here are the broad strokes of the brush for how I see 2009 panning out for the Falcons:
The Offense WILL Be Better...
Adding Tony Gonzalez from the Chiefs for a 2010 second-round pick will prove to be a bad move for the long-term but, for now, it gives Matt Ryan the one receiving component he lacked last year, which was a threat down the middle. Time has not slowed Gonzalez yet and who knows what having a quarterback with Ryan’s poise and accuracy throwing to him will do.
Jerious Norwood NEEDS TO GET THE BALL MORE; for everyone’s sake. Michael Turner had a staggering workload last year and it amazes me as to why the Falcons do not utilize the multi-faceted skills of Norwood more. I predict that will change in 2009, whether by intentional design or through Turner getting injured.
The offensive line will not be as good at run-blocking this year and will likely have more injuries. Again, much like the defense, the line was exceptionally healthy last year and most of the starters played together all year long. Part of the implosion of the 2007 Falcons offense came through the many changes in the weekly starters for the offensive line (both due to injury and performance). Time has proven that it is often better to keep one unit together for a season rather than making minor tweaks in the line so as to try to incrementally improve performance. Last year, Sam Baker was lost early in the season but the Falcons adjusted well. They moved Todd Weiner, now retired, over to the left side and allowed Tyson Clabo to emerge on the right side. The Falcons may not be as lucky this year and, in particular, cannot afford injuries to the interior of the line where they lack depth at all spots.
Matt Ryan will continue to emerge.
If anything, Ryan will throw more this year than last as the Falcons were one of the few teams in the league to eschew the growing spread-oriented tendencies on offense and focus more on a power-running game. This year, I believe the coaching staff will incorporate more three and four-wide receiver looks for Ryan with the newly acquired chess piece that is the multi-skilled Tony Gonzalez moving around all over the formation. Expect to see Gonzalez lining up at tight end, in the slot, and as a split end or flanker at various times this year. In light of that..
The wide receivers numbers will go down individually but improve as a unit. I do not expect either Roddy White or Michael Jenkins to be targeted as much this year by Ryan. However, great offenses are built on balance (not necessarily a balanced play distribution though), with multiple weapons being targeted all throughout. The Falcons addition of Gonzalez will have a ripple effect that will improve the offense as a whole if that means certain parts of the machine (i.e. White, Jenkins, and Turner) see the ball less.
The “Wildcat” (or some iteration of the single-wing formation) will/should be used more.
There has been very little true innovation in the NFL from a strategic standpoint in recent years. The best thing we have seen is probably the unique, modular defensive structure that Bill Belichick utilizes for the New England Patriots, with linebackers often being defensive ends, tackles, cornerbacks, or safeties. In addition, Belichick’s use of pattern-matching zone coverage is relatively unique as well. Offensively though, I dare you to name the last truly innovative idea to come along to the NFL…are you stuck on “well, the West Coast offense?” Sorry, that was new in 1979, when Bill Walsh was redefining what ball-control offense meant by using four and five-yard passes as effective handoffs. Maybe you say “the spread formation?” Well, in some iteration or another, the spread has been around for some time. The run-and-shoot had very similar principles, the only difference being that the spread is less of a read on the fly type system as receiver routes are more predetermined than they were with the run-and-shoot. For some time now.
The formation started last season by the Dolphins though dubbed the “Wildcat” is both a rewind and a fast-forward for the league. Incorporating the elements of the spread, the formation itself is essentially the 1920’s single-wing all over again except now, instead of two ends on the line of scrimmage, one of those ends (usually a running back with wide receiver skills) is flexed out wide and put into motion to the inside of the formation as the ball is snapped. The ball is then snapped to a running back behind center that has quasi-quarterback skills.
Where the plot thickens as this relates to the Falcons, again, is around the under-utilized (to this point at least) puzzle piece known as Jerious Norwood. Norwood played some at quarterback in high school and his skill set is such that he would make an ideal behind center, single-wing back.
If only for the sake of innovation alone, I hope the Falcons utilize this difficult (due to it’s multiple option focus) to defend formation but also because, quite frankly, it makes sense to use on occasion with their personnel.
The defense could be REALLY bad.
Last year, the Falcons notched a total of 34 sacks; 16.5 of them were from one player and that was defensive end John Abraham. Another interesting factoid about Abraham; he has never played two consecutive seasons starting every game—in his career. The man is also on the wrong side of 30 as well, meaning a slowdown in production could likely occur due to age anyway. Thankfully, the Falcons are doing things to safeguard against this. Selecting defensive end Lawrence Sidbury in round four was both a steal from a value standpoint but also because he gives the Falcons an off-the-bench rotational end that can come in to give Abraham a breather and, quite possibly, push the disappointing former first-round selection Jamal Anderson for playing time.
The defensive backs could improve or decline…it all depends on who lines up for them come opening day. Last year, the Falcons made a great value addition just before the trading deadline, picking up Dominique Foxworth from the Ravens for a 2009 seventh-round draft choice. Foxworth put together a solid season but, long-term, may not have been the best player to add for the Falcons. The reason I say this is because it delayed the playing time (and thus the development) of 2008 rookie Chevis Jackson at cornerback. This year, I predict he will end up starting alongside Chris Houston. I am a firm believer that the best friend of two young, developing starting cornerbacks is a healthy pass-rush up front. If Abraham can manage to stay healthy, not decline dramatically and if more Falcons defenders step up to provide support in the area of pass-rushing, than these young cornerbacks could have a solid, developmental year. However....
Jamal Anderson is in put up or shut up time. Last year, he at least notched a few (literally, two) sacks, which was a dramatic improvement over his rookie year (zero, nothin’, nada, nathan, zilch, cero…however you count it and whatever country you are from, NONE—no sacks). He also showed improvement in the running game at the point of attack as well. Still, for a number eight pick in the draft, the Falcons need a whole lot more from him than what he has given to this point. I actually believe Anderson could be the difference for the Falcons this year at end and all reports early on are saying that he looks to be progressing well through OTA’s and mini-camp thus far. However, we shall see what this young man can give once the snaps count for wins and losses come September.
The linebackers are likely to remain awful in pass coverage. I will be honest and say that Mike Smith’s benching of linebacker Michael Boley last year in favor of converted safety Coy Wire was a surprise to me. I thought that Boley’s skill set was one that could have made him become a poor man’s Julian Peterson for the Falcons. For whatever reason though, Boley just did not get off on the right foot with the new Atlanta coaching staff. However, his replacement in Wire was nothing to rave about either. As stated earlier, last year the Falcons were repeatedly undone with passes over the middle to tight ends and running backs, which was a sin that primarily fell on the shoulders of the linebackers. Praise the heavens, the Falcons have finally gotten rid of Mr. Overpriced/Perennially Under performing child of Georgia known as Keith Brooking. Last year, his cap number was a hair below a staggering $8 million. For $8 million, one would hope a guy could do more than be effective within the tackle-to-tackle box on running backs (and even there, as a later article will show, Brooking was not overly good at plays run directly at him either). Brooking was flat-out AWFUL against the pass. While a great character player and tremendous leader, he simply did not warrant the pay he received. The one glimmer of hope last year was at middle linebacker, where Curtis Lofton came in and had a great rookie year for Atlanta.
So for one to then evaluate the 2009 team, one must look at the likely starters on the flanks for the linebacker unit. As stated, Coy Wire replaced Boley last year but this year, that position is likely to be an open competition between Wire and third-year man Stephen Nicholas. Personally, for the long term and the short-term, I hope the Falcons go with Nicholas. He simply is a faster and better athlete than Wire, giving them greater potential both in coverage and as a pass-rusher. While a bit small, he is actually larger than Wire by about 10 to 15 pounds so he may even be better in the running game as well. On all levels except experience, it makes sense to start Nicholas. Where worry exists that is not so easily rectifiable is on the strong side. Mike Peterson, formerly of the Jacksonville Jaguars, was brought in due to his knowledge of Mike Smith’s defense from their time together in Jacksonville. However, Peterson never played the Sam position, consistently setting up shop at the Mike (i.e. middle) linebacker location. If Peterson can be protected schematically, wherein he his main job will be to stuff tight ends, he may have a chance outside. Again though, in the diverse, growingly wide-open league that is the NFL, a linebacker who is a liability in coverage is worth roughly the Gatorade bucket on the sideline.
As it stands now, I do not see the woes of the 2008 Falcons against tight ends and running backs in pass coverage being addressed with the personnel moves made at linebacker.
The Falcons have a lot to look forward to in 2009. Matt Ryan should, if history is any guide, have a better second starting season than his first (as most quarterbacks improve their second year). Michael Turner, through either greater emphasis on passing in the offense or possibly injury due to his overuse last year, is likely to decline a bit but will still likely have a very good year. Hopefully, Jerious Norwood gets the ball at all levels more often than last year. The receivers, with the addition of Gonzalez, are a very balanced bunch and could give opposing secondary units nightmares this year. The line, if it can stay relatively healthy and stable, should continue to open holes for Turner and give Ryan, a very aware quarterback as is, enough time to throw down field. The biggest problems will occur on defense, where the Falcons just do not have a lot of difference makers, as well as potentially through the natural decline that could come through more injuries than what occurred last year coupled with a tougher schedule.
My early line on the Falcons 2009 season is:
9-7 with a possible (but not likely, unless they win their division on 9-7) wild-card playoff spot.
Evaluating the Atlanta Falcons 2009 NFL Draft
First-round (#24 overall): Peria Jerry—DT, Ole Miss
Evaluation: The Falcons took the second-best overall defensive tackle in this year’s draft behind Boston College’s B.J. Raji (who went at number nine to Green Bay). While this writer would have preferred Raji, the cost of moving from #24 to #9 would have proven far too great and I am glad the Falcons stayed where they were at and selected Jerry. Jerry comes in as a slightly older rookie, coming in at 25 years-old. What this means is that his upside is relatively limited due to his advanced age so what should really be looked at is what are the Falcons clearly getting now versus trying to project down-the-road what Jerry could become.
Jerry can excel if allowed to play a three-technique position exclusively and play with a one-gap responsibility, allowing him to best utilize his great quickness off the snap and burst. He has only average bulk strength and leg drive so he will not often be able to push offensive guards back in a bull rush type move.
Where I find this pick interesting is how it relates to the current scheme the Falcons favor on defense. In head coach Mike Smith’s 4-3 alignment, the defensive tackles he tends to favor are of the larger, bulkier variety, so as to occupy space, take up two-gaps, and keep lineman off of the fast-flowing linebackers. As it stands now, Smith has two starters in Jerry and holdover Jonathan Babineaux that are both one-gap, slanting, quickness-over-power types. What this means long-term may not be that significant but, per my first mock draft, I wonder if trading back into round two for the larger, more stout Ron Brace would have been a better fit for the Falcons, in addition to acquiring additional selections in either this year’s draft or next year’s.
Second-round (#55 overall): William Moore—S, Missouri
Evaluation: Moore will come in from day one and replace the departed Lawyer Milloy at strong safety. Heading into the 2008 season, Moore was projected as a first-round selection at safety in this year’s draft but his sub-par senior season caused him to drop into the second-round. What the Falcons are getting with Moore is a player who grades extremely high in terms of his physical metrics (4.58 forty-yard dash speed on a 220lb. frame with a 37.5” vertical leap) and has shown his toughness, both as an athlete but also as a person, overcoming extreme hardships as a child. However, I am not one to fall in love with players who look like Tarzan but play like Jane; while Moore is not the latter, he is more so definitely not the former in terms of actual production.
My main criticism with this pick is I see it as not being an overly large improvement over what ailed the Falcons at strong safety a year ago; an inability to cover tight ends and backs. The main upgrade Moore does provide there is speed as I project Milloy to be at least a step slower than Moore is right now. Again though, Moore’s instincts in coverage are spotty at best. He is best served playing a role that allows him to be close to the line of scrimmage as a sort of eighth man. If he is utilized this way in the scheme, Moore could prove to be a valuable pick in the second-round.
Third-round (#90 overall) Chris Owens—CB, San Jose State
Evaluation: San Jose State has a fairly decent recent track record, as last year’s fourth-round Jets selection, Dwight Lowery, hailed from that university and put forth a solid rookie campaign. Owens himself as a player is a bit on the small side at 5’9” and ¾ and is also not a very explosive leaper. As such, he will not fare well if, in his likely role as a nickel cornerback, he is matched up against the Larry Fitzgerald’s of the world (than again, does anyone do well against Larry Fitzgerald?). What Owens does bring to the table though is primarily his instincts. He is an excellent zone coverage player, displaying both route recognition skills as well as the ability to read a quarterback’s eyes and burst on to the ball. He also plays bigger than his size would indicate, being a solid tackler and run support corner. Overall, a solid pick for the Falcons in the third-round.
Fourth-round (#125 overall) Lawrence Sidbury Jr.—DE, Richmond
Evaluation: This is actually my favorite of the selections made by the Falcons. If utilized properly, Sidbury could prove to be an excellent third-down, rotational defensive end, allowing John Abraham much needed rest (as Abraham was pretty much all of the Falcons pass rush last year). The main thing lacking from Sidbury’s game is an arsenal of pass-rush moves to pull from. At this point, he is more or less a one-trick pony, possessing a spin move. At the moment, he does not have overly good use of his hands to swim, shed, rip, tug or pull lineman off of him that he faces. However, I would argue that those attributes could be acquired through diligent practice and observant coaching (something he will get with Atlanta versus Richmond). Sidbury does not grade out particularly well on tape but he has a set of physical metrics (the fastest 40-time of any defensive lineman in this draft, 35 5/8” arms, and a great burst off the edge) that make him the ideal developmental pass-rush prospect in the fourth-round.
Fifth-round (#138 overall) William Middleton—CB, Fulton
Evaluation: Middleton does not overly impress me as a prospect. He possess’ decent size for the cornerback position, providing a bit more bulk than does Owens. However, he lacks the overall agility and stop-and-start ability that a cornerback needs to be successful. He does provide good ball skills though and is a tough run support player who may be able to make the final roster.
Fifth-round (#156 overall) Garrett Reynolds—OT, North Carolina
Reynolds flashes excellent length in his arms (one would hope so at 6’7”) and the ability to pull and get out in space. However, the main problem with Reynolds is an overall lack of foot quickness and coordination. The main flaw that he has, as a pass protector and run blocker, is he tends to get too upright. The Atlanta coaching staff needs to work on him keeping his hips lower as well as work on his overall lateral movement. The fact is though, there is only so much coaching can do for a player and, due to his foot quickness/coordination issues (he often loses balance when he has to make a sudden lateral movement) limit his upside to him probably never being more than a road-grader type blocker, serving as a backup on the right side of the line.
Sixth-round (#176 overall) Spencer Adkins—ILB, Miami (FL.)
Evaluation: Adkins has an interesting set of physical abilities. He flashes great sideline-to-sideline range, good top-end speed, is a reliable tackler, is a very natural and smooth athlete, and also shows great burst and takeoff. He was actually used often at Miami as a situational pass rusher for his explosiveness. There are two major limits to him as it relates to the Falcons. The first is that Adkins is not an instinctive player. As great as physical attributes are, what can make a guy like Mike Vrabel excel as a linebacker with 4.8 forty-yard speed is his tremendous instincts. Football is a game built on reacting quickly, particularly on defense, and Adkins may never develop those kind of instincts. Again though, I think it is wise to take risks on physical specimens later in the draft (i.e. after round three), as they possess a greater upside; so it is with Adkins. The second limitation is actually schematic. Adkins would fit very well with a 3-4 team as an inside linebacker, particularly for one with a more fast-moving front such as the Ravens or Steelers. While I have argued for awhile that the Falcons should consider a switch to the 3-4 (John Abraham was a 3-4 rush linebacker in college), as of now, they are a 4-3 team with no signs of that changing. As such, Adkins could provide value though at any of the three positions at linebacker; a good, late round pick.
Seventh-round (#210 overall) Vance Walker—DT, Georgia Tech
Possessing a powerful bull-rush, Walker could give Jerry tips on getting underneath lineman to drive them backward. Walker though struggles to change direction and lacks the agility needed to make plays inside all along the defensive line. The odd thing is though, despite his stocky build, Walker too is better as a slanting, on-the-move lineman than he is at standing his ground and taking up two gaps. He has a high motor, good burst and HUGE hands. In what is turning out to be a bit of an interesting defensive line interior, Walker could do well if the scheme is altered in Atlanta to suit the talents of the growing number of “movement-type” defensive tackles, serving as a rotational tackle so as to keep the starters fresh the whole game.
Overall grade: B-
While I do not overly disagree with any of the Falcons selections, I think they could have maybe gotten better value at some spots. In the first round, I think the two players that were best fits for Atlanta were either Jerry or Ohio State linebacker James Laurinaitis. One could argue that after the Mike Peterson signing, there was a greater need at defensive tackle. However, while the need was slightly greater, I see Laurinaitis being more of a sure-fire bet to do well as either a middle or weak side linebacker than Jerry is set to do well as an interior lineman. Plus there is the age-factor as discussed that gives Laurinaitis a greater upside. Again, not a bad pick but was it the best pick? In my opinion, Laurinaitis would have provided greater value.
In round two, I like Moore’s upside but I think that Sen’Derrick Mayes, a defensive tackle out of Auburn who went to Tennessee, would have been a better fit. Moore does possess great physical ability but I believe that the first two-rounds are not where you take guys that are athletes versus high-level performers. I would have selected Mayes only in my scenario of taking Laurinaitis first. However, as such with what actually occurred (I’m great at theorizing possibility, bad at describing reality), Moore could prove to be a good player down the road.
In round three, the two players I most liked that were on the board that I thought would have been a good fit for Atlanta were both tight ends, Chase Coffman of Missouri and Travis Beckum of Wisconsin. While the recent acquisition of future Hall-of-Fame tight end Tony Gonzalez from the Chiefs would make a third-round selection on a tight end seem gratuitous, one has to also consider that Gonzalez will be 34 years-old this next year and the Falcons gave up a 2010 second-round pick to acquire him; a high choice for a player, while still a high-performing veteran, they may only get one to at most two years out of at his current level. Selecting a tight end with the upside of either Coffman or Beckum (who, were it not for injuries this year, likely would have gone in the first-round) would have given them long-term stability at the position and allowed either player to learn from one of the all-time best tight ends in the history of he NFL.
Their work from round four on though I think was excellent. As stated, I love the selection of Sidbury in round four and am also high on the selection of Adkins in round six. Walker could prove to be a good rotational defensive tackle if Mike Smith alters his scheme a bit too favor the predominance of one-gap, slanting lineman he has versus his traditional strong, two-gap type lineman his system has historically favored.
Overall, a solid day for the Falcons with no real strong gripping points against what Thomas Dimitroff and company pulled off.