Cleveland Browns
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NFL Team Column By Bill Smith |
Its not looking Good
The Browns have now lost to the bottom 2 teams in the league last year.
The Browns had the lead after the 1st half 24-14. That is a better indication of the teams than the final score. But again it was turnovers that told the story. The Browns lost 3 fumbles in a 35-27 loss to the Lions. The game was not that significant. What we saw was however.
The Offense
The Browns O looks a little shaky but WAY better than last year. The O drove inside the red zone but failed on 3 plays to get it in the endzone and were forced to kick a FG. Mangini put QB Wallace in on 1st and 10 from the 10 and a half yard line but the new package failed to gain much on 2 downs with a run and a pass. A 3rd down pass by Delhomme was foiled by a good pass rush and was incomplete.
The Wallace pistol formation has a problem. The Browns have trouble running the ball without FB Vickers. He is a earth mover in front of the RB. The organization is going to have to rethink that package. We have not seen Hardesty yet but could next Thursday.
The running game looks good. RB Harrison had a fumble but it was a fluke. He proved last year that he is not much of a fumble risk. RB Hollis is a guy I really liked coming out of college. He has decent speed but great power and a high motor. When he is behind Vickers, it is a challenge for the D. He is also an above-average pass receiver.
QB Delhomme is much more accurate and consistent than anyone the team had last year. What is even more important, he is helping the O line by pointing out blitzers to what has been a constantly changing group due to injuries. He also has the experience to audible out of bad plays when the D formation requires it. The only down side of Delhomme is that there are still way too many check downs. He needs to stand in a little longer and find receivers down the field. As he becomes more confident in the O line, he should be better in that area.
QB Wallace didn't do much Saturday. He has the ability to run but keep his eyes down field to throw if he gets a chance. That is a good combination. He is not as accurate as a drop back passer. When he is on the move, it creates movement by the DBs and forces openings in the coverage.
QB McCoy just is not ready. He has very little pocket awareness in part because except for a couple of games at Texas, he never had to think about it. He has a little stronger arm than he is given credit for and is reasonably accurate. He needs a couple of years to learn to read coverages.
The concern comes from the O facing so many 3rd and long situations. While they were able to convert a decent number of them against the Lions, they will struggle to score unless the team makes more positive yardage on 1st and 2nd down. In the preseason they have gone for the first on 4th down but won't do that in the regular season.
WR Robiskie has been very strong catching against tight press coverage and helping out the QB by coming back for the ball. I can't help but wonder how much better the team would have done had Robo not been in the Mangini dog house last year.
UFA WR Engram and Cribbs both made nice catches as well. Cribbs continues to prove his development as a receiving threat. On a 3rd and long Cribbs jumped to get a ball that was well over his head right at the out of bounds line. He caught it and was able to get both feet down in bounds. Last year he was not as aware of his feet.
The play of the TEs has really been promising. TE Moore made a great catch that kept the first drive going. Moore has great hands and can jump for the ball. Because he is young, he is not as aware of the D around him. He fumbled a catch in the 3rd quarter that led to a Lion TD. TE Wallace has also shown he is a red zone threat in previous games.
The O line did OK. The strength of the Lion D is their front 4. With rookie Lauvao at RG and Pashos at RT, the pass protection seemed to be better. Lauvao did OK. He was leading runs to his side down field and held his own against both standard pass rushes and the blitz. My favorite guy RT St. Clair was not with the team for "personal reasons." That was addition to the protection by the subtraction of St. Clair.
The Defense
The D let the Lions score on 3 plays with their first possession. The team was giving up chunks of yardage in the Lions' second possession until RB Smith fumbled and CB Wright picked it up and raced for a score. The D still struggles to get off the field on 3rd down. While the LBs make tackles, too many are 4 or 5 yards down field. The D is also not getting much pressure on the QB even when they blitz. They should have been able to do more against a Lion O line that has struggled.
The D is not nearly as effective in zone than they are in man coverage. Zone is harder to teach young DBs and LBs because they hesitate to leave their zone when a receiver comes through it. They have to be taught when to go and when to stay in their zone.
A couple of things stuck out on D. The LBs lack of coverage in either man or zone of RBs and TEs is going to be a problem unless they fix it. The other thing that bothered me was the weakness against the sweep and soft run D on the edge. The OLB has to force the run back to the middle without giving up the seam between him and the DE. Too often the OLB was blocked to the outside and the RB ran between him and the DE.
The bottom line
The first team looked just OK against the second worst team in the league last year. But then one of the Lions' few wins last year was against the Browns. This team is 10 players or so away from being a playoff team. It will take a couple of drafts to get that many really good guys.
This year, I can't see the team winning more than 4 or 5 games. They will be better but the record may not show it.
The Browns lead against the Rams is washed away.
When Cribbs and Harrison each fumble and QB Delhomme fumbles twice all in the 1st quarter, its going to be a long day for the D. The D did manage to stop the Rams twice after fumbles and force field goals but it did give up a 60 yard drive for a TD. The team lost the game due to 5 turnovers by the O and the D failing to get any. The 2nd team O line (which due to injuries was actually the 3rd) was unable to protect either QB McCoy or Ratliff. Both were sacked and were unable to generate a score.
Offense
The O line is suffering a number of injuries including RT Pashos and RG Womack are both unable to play. Rookie G Lauvao played a lot last week but was also not in the starting lineup. The Rams' blitzes confused the Browns O line in the first couple of possessions. However, after the team figured out the blitz pattern, the 1st team O line did a fair job at giving Delhomme time to throw.
Part of that is due to the large number of throws he made to the safety valve. That is an issue because Delhomme was brought in to throw down field. It is hard to win against good teams by always dumping off to a back or TE. The number of passes batted down is also a concern.
RB Hillis looks very strong breaking tackles. The combination of Hillis and FB Vickers are going to be a challenge for any D.
TE Watson looks like a force inside the red zone. He made a great 1 handed catch to score the Browns first TD. It was his 2nd this year.
KR/PR/WR/DB Cribbs has come a long way as a receiver. He made two key catches getting first downs then caught a poor pass against double coverage for a TD to give the Browns the lead.
QB Ratliff who led the team to a come back win last week got only one possession against the Rams. He hit WR Mitchell with a perfect pass that the receiver was unprepared to catch. He was then hit as he threw and the ball was picked off by former Buckeye LB Carpender.
Defense
The three things that jump out at me so far this season are (1) the improved tackling of the CBs, (2) the strong play both against the run the pass by reserve NT Rubin and (3) the solid play of rookie S TJ Ward.
CB Wright, Brown and rookie CB Haden were good in run support. That was not Wright's strength in previous years. The second group struggled to cover Rams receivers down field.
Rubin has shown the ability to collapse the pocket against a double team on the pass and hold his ground against the run. Don't be surprised if when Rogers comes back he isn't put at DE to bolster the D line and keep Rubin at NT.
S Ward plays the run tough but can cover as well. He reminds some of old folks of former Brown Eric Turner back in the 90's.
The LBs played fairly well. Barton and Fujita both made plays from the inside spots and OB Roth provided some pass rush.
Special-teams
The special-teams weren't so special this week. Both Cribbs and Steptoe turned the ball over deep in Browns land. That just can't happen.
Overall
The first team had 1 drive but lost the ball twice on fumbles. The Browns are not good enough to beat the bottom teams in the league when they commit turnovers. QB Wallace had a drive for a score but again, McCoy got no support either from the O line or WR Mitchell. Mitchell played a lot better in South Florida and has to improve his field awareness to make this team.
It is hard to blame the TOs on the rain because it seemed to be raining on the Rams end of the field as well and they did not turn the ball over. The Browns have to take better care of the ball to win any games this year. After a nice win against a really quality team last week, this was a stinker that was more reminiscent of the first 10 games last year.
Well, it was a win!
The Browns won the first preseason game against the Packers 27-24 with a 46 yard field-goal with 2 seconds on the clock. It wasn't pretty but it was a win but last year's game at GB was 0-17. The Browns got beat up and humbled. This season it was a win. After the last couple of seasons, we will take all of those we can get even in the preseason.
The Good
The first string O moved 80 yards in just 5 plays to score a TD on their only possession of the game. QB Delhomme looked very sharp in leading the drive mostly in the air. The other thing that really stuck out was the tremendous improvement in the structure of the O. The team used new pass route combinations that enabled WRs to get open. Delhomme delivered the ball on time and threw very accurate medium and short passes. The O will focus more on hitting players on the run rather than stopped waiting for the ball and the hit of the DB. WR Robiskie should benefit from the Holmgren version of the West Coast O the team has implemented. He runs very disciplined routes and has good hands.
2nd team QB Wallace looked good as well. After a fumble recovery on GBs first play, Wallace got the team a TD with a very athletic pass. Running for his life to the left, he squared his body and hit Robo who had followed his QB across the back of the endzone. It was great recognition by both players.
The pass protection was only fair. I am still scratching my head wondering why Jon St. Clair is starting at RT. The first drive was successful more because Delhomme was reading the blitz and coverage than the O line providing great protection.
K Phil Dawson is one of the most under-rated kickers in the history of the game. He plies his trade in one of the toughest environments in the league and has been extremely consistent. His 58 yard field-goal to tie the game at 24 was good by a yard or two. He makes it look easy.
The Bad
The running game struggled against one of the better run Ds in the league. RB Harrison was hit a couple of times in the backfield but averaged only 3.6 per carry. The line struggled to open the kind of holes that we saw in the last few games last year. To be fair, the Pack had the 1st D in against a mix of starter and sub O line for the Browns for the 3rd possession.
The first team D was not able to get any pressure even with an all out blitz. Worse yet, the DBs aren't able to stay close enough to the WRs to prevent the completion. That is a bad combination. The Browns blitzed all night but seldom got much pressure on the passer regardless of who was the QB. Early in the game, the DBs missed tackles on short passes allowing longer gains against the blitz. As the game went on however, the team began to make the tackles short of the line to gain.
The D still struggles to get off the field on 3rd down. There always seemed to be a single player breakdown on a play that allowed the Pack to make the first down. The run D still gets gashed but in the 3rd quarter the D was on the field a lot because the O could not make a first down. The absence of NT Rogers makes a big difference.
The Ugly
Nothing was nearly as ugly as last season's game. However seeing QB McCoy walk off the field with an injured hand was disappointing. He threw 2 picks but the second one was not totally his fault as the O lineman got pushed back into him preventing a follow through.
Individual notes
S Ward showed good instincts and brings a big hit. He also has better-than-average coverage skills for a S. He had 6 solo tackles in the game. He played very well.
CB Haden showed some cover skills and speed but had his hands on a pick and dropped it.
WR Robo looked very good. You can't help but wonder if the passing game would have been as ugly as it was last year had he not been in Mangini's dog house.
Wallace looked sharp in his second drive. Wallace did have a drop and has to work on his vision to see the secondary defender.
TE Watson showed his ability to get open on the TD catch with a great double move. He has the size to be a factor in the red zone.
QB McCoy made 2 mistakes on the first interception. First, he threw the ball short. Second, he threw into double coverage. He will need some time to get up to speed in the pros.
OLB Marcus Benard flashed around the field and made plays. He could become a factor in the pass rush.
Browns Need to Answer Several Questions in Training Camp
Every team has some question marks going into a training camp. Generally the more losses you have the more questions need to be answered in camp. That is certainly the case with the Browns in 2010.
1. Who will be the QB?
The team signed ex Panther Jake Delhomme and traded for Seneca Wallace. Delhomme was very good in 2008 and terrible in 09 with 8 TDs and 18 picks. Which Delhomme will we get? If it is the 09 version, Wallace will be starting very soon. There is very little chance QB Colt McCoy will see the field much in the first half of the year.
2. The black hole known as RT.
It was not a coincidence that the running game got going just after Jon St. Clair went down with an injury. The team signed UFA T Tony Pashos (3y 10.3M). Pashos is decent which will be a big improvement over St. Clair. But Pashos has a history of injury. Can he hold up for a full season and who would replace him if he goes down?
3. Who will be the primary RB?
When Jerome Harrison finally got his chance, he was outstanding even when the opponent knew the team had to run because it could not pass at all. But Harrison is light at 205 and the team doesn't believe that he can be THE guy for 16 games. Enter RB Montario Hardesty who was drafted with the 59th pick (2nd round). Hardesty has the size at 225 but has a history of injury at Tennessee that makes him a question mark as well.
One dark horse candidate is RB James Davis (pick 195, 6th round 2009 draft). He is the second year back that was put out for the season during Coach Mangenous' "opportunity" time. When he was at Clemson he split time with C.J. Spiller who was the 9th pick in the 1st round by the Bills this past draft. Thanks to Mangenous we have no idea what he can do.
4. Who will be the starting DBs?
Last year the team started Eric Wright and Brandon McDonald most of the year. McDonald won a spot in Mangenous' dog house for getting beaten like the oversized base drum in the Purdue University band. Wright has been good covering receivers but is not a run support corner. That "helped" the Browns give up more big runs than any other team in the Conference. The team drafted Joe Haden (Florida) with the 7th pick and traded for CB Sheldon Brown with the Eagles. Rookie CBs usually get spun around like merry-go-rounds by veteran receivers. Brown was most likely going to lose his starting spot because he lost a step and was never the fastest CB in the league to begin with. But he would be an upgrade for the Browns. Look for Wright and Brown to start with Haden being the 3rd CB and McDonald needing to work to make the 53.
The safety position is not in any better shape. In 2009 the team let starting S Sean Jones leave via free agency. This year they let the other 08 starter S Brodney Pool go when they did not tender the RFA. In 2009 the team started Abe Elam (ex-Jet) at SS and anybody that was not in the Mangini doghouse at FS. That group included WR Mike Furrey who was the most effective S on the team.
This year things will be interesting again. In my opinion the team reached to get S T.J. Ward (Oregon) with the 38th pick in the draft (2nd). He will get the first shot at S opposite Elam. However, they got a real steal with SS Larry Asante (Nebraska) in the 5th round with the 160th pick. Asante has already signed and is better than Elam and Ward against the run and even with the later in pass coverage. Elam could be moved to FS to make room for either rookie.
5. Are there any LBs that can put pressure on NFL passers?
Mangini wants to play 4-6 LBs blitzing from every spot like the Pats do. But even the Pats found out last year that it takes intelligent veteran guys to make that work. The idea is that every LB is able to play the run and pressure the QB. Unfortunately, the team doesn't have that kind of LB.
IB D'Qwell Jackson was resigned as a RFA AND makes a lot of tackles. Unfortunately too many are 5 yards down field. He was a starter in 08 but only played 6 games in 09. He does not have the feet to be a combo inside/outside backer that Mangini wants. IB David Bowens started 15 of his 16 games in 09. Eric Barton started 8 games then went down. He is more of an inside only guy. Matt Roth was signed late in the season after being cut by the Dolphins and was by far the best OB on the team. He had 4 sacks in 6 games played. Jason Trusnik was a surprise and started 10 games with 2.5 sacks and 45 solo tackles. He too is primarily an inside guy. The last holdover is David Veikune who was a 2nd round pick (52nd) in 09. He was a DE at Hawaii and was flipped around from IB to OB to IB again last year. That experiment is over and he will be developed at DE.
The Browns traded for LB Chris Gocong (Eagles) and signed UFA Scott Fujita (Saints). In his 4 seasons, Gocong started 35 games and had a grand total of just 4 sacks. Not great. Fujita has started 103 games with 3 different teams but has only 19 sacks.
6. How many more Brown's DL will be arrested at Cleveland Hopkins airport for having a gun in their carry-on luggage?
Who knows?
June 2010 in Brownie Land
So far, the WRs have been looking much better. Part of that is undoubtedly due to more accurate passers over last June. But it does look like WR Brian Robiskie has gotten out of the Mangini Dog House. He has been the star of the June OTAs. According to most experts, rookie receiver Carlton Mitchell is on the bubble to make the 53. Forget that. He is not only going to be on the roster, he will be the 3rd WR by week 5. Remember, you read that here first.
Mitchell has deep speed but is quick as well. He fell in the draft a little because he lost his QB at USF in his last year but still caught 105 balls even though he was doubled a lot. He is an athlete with above average hands and one guy I suggested the Browns draft on this site.
In other news, the 4 holdout RFAs have all signed their tenders. IB D’Qwell Jackson, RB Jerome Harrison, S Abe Elam and FB Lawrence Vickers and LB/DL Matt Roth signed their tenders before the amounts were reduced. The first 3 got contract of $1.58M and Roth got 1.81M. These players are key to the teams plans in 2010.
Harrison will be the primary ball carrier to start the season. His performance in the last 5 games of the 09 season showed that he can be very effective. The only question is can he take the beating of a 16 (or 18) game season. That was the reason that the team drafted RB Montario Hardesty with the 59th pick.
Roth was a great free agent pickup during the 09 season. He showed the ability to rush the passer and has the instincts to play DL or LB.
Elam was not the impact player that the team hoped he would be but was better than the guys he replaced. Elam may not be a starter depending on how quickly the two rookie DBs develop. But he will be a decent DB on a team that needs all the decent players it can get.
Vickers has developed into one of the top FBs in the league. His blocking was key to Harrision's success last season.
The only one of the RFAs that might not be critical is IB Jackson. Mangini likes LBs that can play all 4 positions and DE in some pass rush situations. Jackson is not athletic enough to play outside and struggles to cover TEs or RBs in pass routes. He is a run stuffer but makes too many tackles 5 yards down field. He could well be on the bubble depending on the final cuts of other teams and how the rookies develop.
2010 NFL Draft: Browns Get Texas QB Colt McCoy For a Bargain
Round 1/7 — Joe Haden, CB, 5-11, 193, Florida grade A-
As we predicted S Eric Berry was gone when the Browns #7 pick came up. The team probably will be sorry they didn't take Thomas but got Haden. Given the lack of experience at S, expect CB Brown to move to FS and Haden to move in opposite Wright at CB.
Haden is a solid CB prospect but fell a little due to a slow 40 speed at the Combine. He ran a little better at his pro day. The good news is that he plays faster than he times. He is a very good M to M cover guy that SEC QBs stayed away from in games. He has quick change of direction and is smooth coming out of breaks. In zone he adjusts to multiple players and anticipates the throw.
He is a decent tackler but not exceptional and will force the run inside by position rather than physical play. He tends to grab and hang on waiting for help rather than exploding through the ball carrier.
Round 2/38 — T.J. Ward, FS, 5-11, 208, Oregon grade C-
I had Ward at 92 on my overall list. This pick was a reach. The team might have been looking at Allen from USF but he was taken by the Seahawks the pick before. They should have expected that and moved up a couple of picks to get Allen. Ward is more of a SS than FS. He has a history of injury and below average ball skills. He is a hitter and very good tackler.
He is very good against the run and is good in the box. In zone he reacts to the ball but tends to hit the receiver preventing the reception rather than looking to make the pick. He can play man but has only average long range speed but quick acceleration to catch up to the receiver. He is OK at at man but is better-suited for zone. He does handle TEs better than most.
Round 2/59 — Montario Hardesty, RB, 5-11 1/2, 225, Tennessee grade B+
The team moved up to get Hardesty and it was a good move. They needed a bigger RB to go with Harrison et. al. At this point he was a little early but they had to make the move and they did not give the farm away to get him.
He is a very good runner that will press the point of attack and make his cut and go. He is quick to the hole and is a classic over-achiever. He seldom goes down with the first hit and is outstanding at YAH (yards-after-the-hit). He is a good receiver with sneaky speed that is a mismatch for most LBs.
The only downside is that he has a history of injuries to his knees. This is a very good pick and he will challenge for the starting spot.
Round 3/85 - Colt McCoy, QB, 6-2, 212, Texas grade A+
McCoy was the pick of the draft for Cleveland. At the bottom of the 3rd round he is a great value. McCoy has outstanding accuracy and good anticipation. He sees the play well and will throw the ball before the receiver makes his break. He is a smart kid with decent instincts vision of the field.
Like most college QBs he played in the spread and does not have the footwork or mechanics for the drop back passer that the NFL requires. The biggest 2 issues I have with McCoy are his lack of average arm strength and his inexperience at reading Ds. He will have problems with the long ball in the winds of Cleveland. He is OK at the short and medium throws but floats the long ball. The other more serious but correctable issue is the lack of making reads. He would look to the sideline to get the play rather than looking over the D to see what the coverage and blitz package might be. Film time will help with that but he is less experienced at reading Ds than most other QB prospects in this draft.
Round 3/92 — Shawn Lauvao, OL, 6-3, 305, Arizona State grade D
This was the biggest reach of the draft for the Browns. I had him around 175. Lauvao is smart and can play G or RT. The ASU line was bad and he was the LT and bell-cow of the unit. He struggles to pass block quicker pass rushers at T. He can not move his feet quickly enough and tends to reach to much. He is an above average drive blocker with someone on his nose but is not quick enough to get into a position to cut off pursuit outside. He has started for ASU at guard and both T spots.
Round 5/160 — Larry Asante, SS, 5-11, 210, Nebraska A-
I really like this kid. He is a hitter with a nasty disposition that tackles with extreme prejudice. He has above-average instincts and causes fumbles. He has above-average ball skills and can pluck the ball out of the air or bat it away. He will be flagged from time to time but they are hustle fouls not mental ones. He can also tend to over commit on play-action but has the football instincts to recover. He is not fast but his instincts help make up for it.
Round 6/177 — Carlton Mitchell, WR, 6-3, 215, South Florida A
I love this pick as well. Mitchell was rated as a solid 3rd round value pick. To get him here is very lucky. He is big and fast. He needs work on his routes but every college WR needs that. He is fluid and has the shakes to get open against man coverage and can find the open area in the zone. He lost his senior QB Grothe to injury and his 09 season stats took a hit. He needs work on his hands because he allows the ball to hit his body too much. But at this point in the draft, he is a gift.
Round 6/186 — Clifton Geathers, DE, 6-7, 299, South Carolina B
He was a nice value here but is green as baby peas. At 298 he is big enough to play 3-4 DE. He needs seasoning and technique help. He doesn't use his strength to best advantage. He also needs to get a few more pass rush moves. He is solid at the point of attack vs. the run.
The bottom line:
This was by far the best draft the team has had since coming back into the league but that is not saying much. On previous draft days the parties were as much suicide prevention meetings as anything else. Congrats to the staff and to Holmgren. They filled as many of the needs as they could and took value when they found it. More than that you can not ask as a fan. It is more than we have gotten since 99.
Who will the Browns Draft?
On Fryingpansports.com I listed the guys I think they should draft. This is my projection of who they will take with their top picks. We have heard in the last few weeks that the Browns board has 1. Ndamukong Suh DT Nebraska 2. Sam Bradford QB Oklahoma and 3 Eric Berry FS Tennessee.
1-7 Everyone knows that both Suh and Bradford will be long gone with the first 2 picks. The team would love to have Berry here but he will be gone.
According to rumors, the Redskins would love to trade down a couple of picks to pick up more choices. They traded most of this draft to get QB McNabb from the Eagles. That trade would cost the Browns 1-7, 3-71 and their first 2 5th round picks (#134 + #146).
Without that trade Berry could be taken at 5 by KC but probably not. Another issue is the latest rumor--the Steelers might trade Roethlisberger to the Chiefs for the 5th pick and QB Matt Cassel. The Steelers would seriously consider Berrry with that pick. How would you like to see the player you want playing against you with the Steelers twice a year?
That trade will not happen and the Chiefs take the OL Russell Okung OT Oklahoma State with the 5th pick. They like him more than Trent Williams OT Oklahoma and might have taken Berry if Okung was not available.
The problem is that the Seahawks had the 30th ranked pass D last year and they will take Berry at 6.
So the Browns will have a decision to make. What they should do is take Earl Thomas S/CB Texas but they won't. Thomas is 2 atoms below Berry, can cover better and is a year younger than Berry.
The guy I think they want is Jared Odrick DT Penn State. He is ranked in the 25-30 area but for a 3-4 team is a top 15 pick because he can play DE in that set. The team will try to trade down a couple of spots to get him and may be able to do that for teams looking to take either Thomas, Derrick Morgan DE Georgia Tech or maybe even Jimmy Clausen QB Notre Dame because that team would be afraid the Raiders would take him at 8. That trade is not at all likely either.
So the team will be stuck at 7 and will take Odrick.
2-38 The team would love to get Colt McCoy QB Texas at this spot. He won't be there. Depending on how much they like him, they may be willing to trade up to 33 to get him. There will be a premium on that pick because a lot of teams will be after players at the top of the 2nd round. The 33rd pick would cost the Browns 2-38 and their first 2 5th round picks. If the Rams get a better offer, it could cost the Browns 38 and their last 3rd round pick #92. Unless they make that moves, the Browns are going to be forced to take their next choice at this point.
Nate Allen FS South Florida would be a possibility. He is not nearly as good as the top 2 safeties but would be an upgrade for the Browns. Remember they have only 1 experienced player at S.
Demaryius Thomas WR Georgia Tech is a physical freak. He is a big receiver with speed and very good hands. He has a foot injury that might allow him to fall to 38. Otherwise he would be a mid 1st round pick.
Daryl Washington OLB TCU is the "other" DE that will convert to OLB from the Hornfogs. He is a solid pass rusher that has the speed (4.58) and hips to cover receivers.
3-71 If the team has not gotten a QB, they probably will take Dan LeFevour QB Central Michigan or Tony Pike QB Cincinnati. Both have the same accuracy (67%) as Bradford but both are bigger and have experience throwing in the winds of the Rust Belt. I prefer LeFevour but will be delighted with either one at this point in the draft. I think Clausen will fall like rock and that will push all the QBs behind him down.
3-85 This would be the spot to pick up the WR they need. The 2 that might be most interesting would be Taylor Price WR Ohio or Mardy Gilyard WR Cincinnati. Both have been very productive and anyone that can walk and chew gum at the same time without letting it drop out of their mouth would be a help. The team might go LB here with Brandon Spikes ILB Florida. After the eye gouging incident I would not touch him.
3-92 I would take the LB here with either Navorro Bowman OLB Penn State or Thaddeus Gibson OLB Ohio State. My projection is that Gibson is gone but Bowman is active and a play maker. If they do not have a WR yet, one of 2 fast rising player might be available. Marcus Easley WR Connecticut has the size at 6-3 and speed at 4.39 to be a steal here but he is very green. Andre Roberts WR Citadel is just as fast but small. He dominated at a lower level in college and can really catch the ball.
The Browns Between a Rock and a Hard Place
The trade of QB McNabb to Washington removed the next to the last hope the Browns had of getting S Berry from Tennessee. Here is the reason.
The most likely picks for the first 6 now go as follows:
1 through 3 will be QB Bradford and the 2 DTs.
4. WA Okung T Oklahoma State They need to protect their new 33 year old QB. They have lost both their long time pro bowl OTs and might have gone with Okung even before trading for McNabb.
5. KC with Okung gone they will probably go with S Berry Florida. If Okung was there, the Chiefs might have considered moving LT Albert back to guard. He struggled at LT last season after having to drop some weight. He has the ability to be an all pro at LG. The team will not take Williams because they reportedly feel that he is a RT not a LT. RT O'Callaghan is not outstanding but the Chiefs have other needs and won't pass up Berry to help their D.
6. SE needs a LT but might not think Williams OT Oklahoma is LT material either. They might take him but more likely will take CB Haden Florida. Right now there is a 60% chance that the Hawks will take Haden if Okung is gone. The chances of Okung being gone are 100%.
That brings us to the Browns' pick at 7. he problem is that there are just 6 solid Blue chip players and they have the 7th pick. Worse yet, nobody above them screwed up and took QB Clausen of Notre Dame. That would have given the Browns one of the top 6 players.
Option 1 would be to trade down. This is what the team would like to do. The problem all teams that would like to gather more picks by moving down is finding a team that wants to trade up. If CB Haden is still on the board, they might get some takers but if he was there, they could take him despite trading for CB Brown last week. Haden has fallen on some draft boards because of concerns about his work ethic. Not preparing for the Combine is a huge red flag. Another problem with taking Haden is that now that they have Brown, they are adequate at CB. They have so many other needs that another CB would have less impact than another position.
If not, it is very likely that they won't find any teams to trade up. If they were able to trade down, their likely target would be around 10-12 and they would take S Earl Thomas of Texas. He is rated very close to Berry but without as much film because he was only a 1 year full time starter. He did have an outstanding 2009. They might take Thomas at 7 because he is rising fast.
Option 2 is to go for DE or OB that can rush the QB. One source "inside" the Browns says that the team could be leaning to Jared Odrick DT Penn St. He is a great kid but in my opinion is not even close to a 7th pick value. He would probably play DE in the 3-4. Another possible pick would be DE/OB Morgan Georgia Tech. Morgan is looked at as a 4-3 DE with questionable ability to transition to OB in a 3-4. He is well above average in pass rush but has not shown the ability to cover a receiver.
Option 3 is DT Dan Williams of Tennessee. I like him better than Odrick. Williams is a NT size with as good athleticism as Odrick and 25 pounds heaver. As we have seen in the last few days there may well be an immediate opening on the roster due to NT Rogers becoming a "guest of the Federal Government" before long.
Option 4 would be to go for S Thomas and accept the fact they had to reach a little. He is a position of need immediately and has a much higher up side than most of the other prospects available. Thomas has moved ahead of Berry in some rankings. While Berry is more of a SS, Thomas would be FS in most defensive schemes. I still have Berry just a millimeter above Thomas because Berry has more starts and experience.
Option 5 involves letting Mangini trade the choice to the Jets for a 4th round pick and a used 5 man blocking sled that needs repair. Clearly I am not a big fan of that option.
There is one VERY SMALL sliver of hope. The April 7th copy of the Sporting News indicated that the Chiefs would prefer Thomas of Texas to Berry. If that is the case there is still a chance that TB will take Berry at 6 instead of Haden but they do need both. That is not much onto which to hang the team's hopes.
NT Shaun Rogers pleaded not guilty to having a loaded gun in his carry on luggage. It was cocked with a bullet in the chamber. The safety of the gun was on.
My question is given the events of the decade, what part of that even seemed like a good idea? By pleading not guilty he has the possibility of working out a plea agreement that would reduce his penalty. It is hard to see any way that Rogers avoids jail time and a suspension by the league.
The Browns signed C/OG Eric Ghiaciuc. Ghiaciuc (Cent. Michigan) was a 4th round pick in 05 by the Bengals. He started 1 game in 05, 13 games in 06, 12 in 07, and 16 in 08. He was signed by the Chargers in 09 but did not play. He can play C or G but is better as C. He is a solid backup and is a nice inexpensive pickup for the team.
Browns Trading Continues
Last week Holmgren traded for CB Sheldon Brown and ILB Chris Gocong from the Eagles for a 4th pick (#104) and 5th pick (#137) and LB Alex Hall. The team still has 10 picks in this draft. The trade solves 2 problems for the team--sort of.
Brown will start at CB opposite Eric Wright. Brown is at best a stop-gap at 31. He has started all but one game in the last 7 seasons. He had 17 passes defended and 5 picks last year. He has replaced a loss of top speed with a better understanding of the game. He is capable of being a starter for another couple of years but not much beyond that. The important thing is that he will stop the immediate bleeding at the CB spot.
That does reduce the probably of the team making CB Haden (Florida) their first pick. The good news is that the latest reports from the draft positions ahead of the Browns. As of today, the Redskins might be leaning toward taking QB Clausen. Every Browns fan has to be pulling for Clausen to WOW the scouts at his workout. That will help insure that the Skins do take Clausen. KC wants OT Okung (Oklahoma St.) and if he is there they will take him. If not, look for them to take the guy on the top of the Browns wish list--S Eric Berry (Tennessee).
The key for the Browns' draft will be the pick of the Seahawks at #6. The Seahawk defense is worse than bad. But so is the O line. The general opinion up to now has been that if Okung was there, the Seahawks would take him. The question becomes what if Okung is gone? Again the general opinion is that the Seahawks would take Berry but that may not be the case. On his show Saturday night on ESPN Radio, John Clayton said that the latest news he has is that the Seahawks would take OT Trent Williams (Oklahoma).
Clayton is the only one from which I have heard that. As a Browns fan, I can hope that is the case. However, Clayton is exceptionally will connected to the league and particularly Seattle. He lives there. He is very often the only one that has the latest information.
Even just 3 weeks away from the draft there are still a lot of unknowns. But for what it is worth, we will all find out on the 22nd.
LB Chris Gocong is a run stuffer more than a pass rusher or a LB that does well dropping into coverage. At 26 he is young enough to be around for several years. The question is he good enough to last that long? He was a 3rd round pick of the Eagles in 06 but did not see the field that year. His first start for the Eagles was as the SAM LB in Game 4 of the 07 season. He started every game in which he was healthy up to the 15th week of 09 when he was benched for the 7th round pick in 09 Moise Fokou. Gocong was not going to be a key to the Eagles plans for 2010.
Gocong holds the point of attack against the run well. He is able to shed blockers and get to the ball carrier. He also is solid at wiping out the blocking and turning the run inside where his help is coming from. He struggles to cover the pass or rush the passer because he is not fast or quick. He also needs to improve his pass rush moves.
Look for Gocong to be the SAM or possibility get moved inside. The Browns need all the run stoppers they can find.
Holmgren has said that the team is still not done trading. Maybe they can find out what they could get for Mangini.
On Monday, April 19, I will post here my choices for every Browns' pick.
Let's play "Spin the draft wheel"
Correction: The trade of LB Wimbly was for the Raider's 2nd 3rd round pick #85. That is a lot better than the deal as it was first announced. Given the depth of this draft class there is a chance that the team could find a potential starter at 85. But Cleveland fans have very little draft history of success upon which to pin our hopes.
The rumors are buzzing that the Browns will trade up to get one of the top 2 QBs. As I said on NFL Notes, News and Rumors last week, I don't think the team can get to 1 from 7. The cost would be exurbanite and would include 1(7), 2 (38), 3(69), 3 (85), 4(102) and 1 in 2011. Even if the Browns were willing to give that much, I don't think the Rams would be willing to allow another potential franchise quarterback to slip past them.
Another thing that seems to be going around is that ND QB Clausen might fall to the Browns if Washington goes for an O lineman. Don't bet on that either. The Redskins signed Rex Grossman to a deal but they can't think what they have on the roster now at QB is good enough. They will likely take Clausen with the 4th pick.
Would Holmgren even want Clausen? He recently said thaking a QB of the future is "just something we have to do. Why wait? I'm 61. I don't want to wait for anyone. We're going to have to do this." Does that mean he would go for Clausen? No. He also said "I wish I liked him more. You know how you have a type of player that you like? It's not scientific. People like him a lot. He'll go high. But it would be hard for me [to take him]." Even so the rumor is that Clausen will meet with the Browns as well as the Rams, Redskins, Bills and Jaguars.
I don't like Clausen. I see too much Quinn in Clausen. They both tend to be inaccurate against pressure, have mechanical and footwork issues, and each had only 1 above average year while at Notre Dame. Perhaps most damaging of all, they were both coached by Weiss.
If the Browns find they are not able or don't want to get one of the top 2, Czar Holmgren better have a guy he likes in the 2nd group of QBs. Holmgren said the might meet with 4 or 5 QBs in the draft pool before the big day. If so, who might that be? Well, let's spin the wheel and take a guess.
The first one we can probably drop out of the Browns' mix is Florida QB Tim Tebow. Holmgren and his team were at the Florida pro day. After the Gator Pro day Holmgren said "I just think in the heat of battle guys will usually revert [to old form]. I think, and I told him this, that he was so thinking about his mechanics that at times it looked a little robotic."
The next guy on most draft boards is Texas QB Colt McCoy. McCoy's biggest drawbacks is lack of arm strength and his size. He has filled out some and now is 230 rather than the overly thin 210 in the 09 season. He has started for all 4 years but has a limited amount of experience under center. He had 2 great seasons in 08 and 09 but had a bad game in the championship game against Nebraska with 0 TDs and 3 picks. In the BcS game he was hurt.
He is extremely accurate on short and medium passes but has not faced the December winds at the lake front. He is expected to be taken in 50-70 area of the draft. The Browns could use the #38 choice to take him or take a chance and trade down to the 50 area to take him. The most likelihood is that they would have to package a 3 with another pick to move up from 69 to get him for sure if he is the guy they want. I don't think he is the one they are looking at.
There are 2 3rd round prospects. Dan LeFevour from Central Michigan and Tony Pike of Cincinnati are the only other QBs in the second group of players. LeFevour has the stronger arm, has less of an injury history, has more experience in college including 51 starts, and in my opinion is the better choice. He started all 4 of his seasons at directional Michigan and in his last 2 years threw 49 TDs with just a total of 13 picks. He finished with a QBR of 150.26 for his 4 years. He has good awareness and vision. He throws well under pressure and does well to sense pressure and move away from it.
Pike started in the 3rd game of 2008 and did well. He missed 2 games with injury. He ended up in 08 with a QBR of 136.4 with a 61.4 completion rate and 19 TDs but 11 picks. He played very poorly in the 08 bowl game against Virginia Tech throwing 4 picks.
In 2009 he was of to a great start but again missed 3 games with injuries and was not able to start a 4th. He finished up with a QBR of 149.8, 62.4% completions and 29 TDs with only 6 picks. He has an average arm, much better recognition than in 08, and is the kind of leader you look for. One concern is that while he was hurt Zach Collaros did just as well as he had.
That may indicate Pike's success is due to a combination of the system and level of competition. He returned to play in the bowl game against Florida.
The Browns almost have to take one in 2010 because beyond Washington U's Jake Locker, there is not much in the 2011 draft as it looks now.
What to do? What to do? We will have more on that next week.
Browns 2010 NFL Draft Needs
Team needs change as players are cut, traded or free agents are signed. So as things stand right this second, here is my analysis of the needs the Browns have yet to address this off season.
1. WR This group was the weakest on a very weak team. Now things are worse. Furrey is a UFA and because he can play 2 positions may get signed by another team. Stuckey caught just 19 passes in 11 games. Massaquoi did fairly well as a rookie but is not a #1 WR. Robiskie, the other 2nd round WR pick last year, was in Mangini's dog house so much he developed mange.
There are 2 problems that make solving the needs at this position difficult. First, the top WR crop of rookies all have BIG question marks. There has been a lot of talk about the Browns taking WR Dez Bryant (Oklahoma St) with the 7th pick. But we have just 3 games of tape on him in 09 and he has added 10 pounds of weight. We also have no 40 time on him. He will have a pro day next week. IF he runs a 4.44 or better, he is a top 10 prospect. If not, he will fall. Some teams may take him off their list because of his suspension and the fact that he misrepresented.
The second guy on most lists is Demaryius Thomas (Georgia Tk). But he comes from an option offense and only ran crosses, screens and go patterns. Plus he broke his foot in February and we have no time on him either. He most likely will not be able to workout before the draft.
The second problem with WR is that there is nothing of value in the UFA group and very little in the RFA crop. WR is the 2nd hardest position for a rookie to contribute right away. College kids use their speed and athleticism to get open. But in the pros, the CBs are just as fast and athletic. In addition, the college spread offense does not require precise routes. WRs are not well prepared for the NFL by the college game. The guys that I do like are Golden Tate (Notre Dame) in the 2nd round, Carlton Mitchell (South Florida) and Arrelious Benn (Illinois) in the 3rd round.
2. A difference maker on D. This can be any position but the team desperately needs a player that can help the team get off the field on 3rd down. That guy can be a S, CB, OB, DE, or IB. And if somehow one of the 2 DTs fall to them they could use another DT. The team will be line dancing in the war room if S Berry (Tennessee) is available at 7. At this writing, that does not appear to be likely and he has fallen to 2nd at S on some boards behind Earl Thomas (Texas). CB Haden (Florida) ran a bad 40 time in Indy but was faster on his pro day. He is a possibility but you worry about his willingness to prepare.
There are a couple of DE to OB conversions with a high 1st round grade but after the failure of OB Wimbley, the team may shy away from those guys. DE Derrick Morgan (Georgia Tk) is the top candidate in that group but he is only a 4-3 end and is not big enough for the DE in a 3-4. The only other early 1st round grade is IB Rolando McClain (Alabama) but that is at the end of the team preferences for this need and he is 12th overall on my board.
3. A gaggle of potential starters on D. As you can see from the above list, there is no spot on D where the team could not use a quality player.
DE The team traded Williams away because he didn't fit the 3-4. Smith and Coleman are the starters but there is little depth. Mosley played in 12 games but got only 18 tackles.
NT Rogers is getting old and was hurt last year. Rubin played well but the team needs 1 more player here.
OB Wimbley is gone. Bowens and Hall are decent but nothing more. Leon Williams is in Dallas.
IB They added Fujita to stop the run but he is not a pass rush or coverage guy. The rest are over achievers and green as bib lettuce.
CB Wright is decent. The rest get beat like a dirty rug. The team needs to sign 1 vet and draft a couple here.
S Elam is just OK and Adams is not there yet. Pool is gone and there is nothing else on the roster.
4. OL depth that is good enough to challenge for a starting spot. The team signed Tony Pashos (T) from the 49ers. He is not a great tackle but will be better than St. Clair. They need a G to challenge RG Womack. G Hadnot signed with the Cards and CG Fraley was released.
5. A QB of the future. This will likely be a 3rd round pick. Next years draft is weak (as it looks now) at QB.
The Browns are signing QBs like some collect stamps.
The Browns signed ex-Panther QB Jake Delhomme to a 2 year deal for what has been called "low starter money." There is no indication if the newcomer will be named the starter. However he indicated to the Cleveland papers after his first visit to town that he would only sign with the Browns if he was going to be "offered" the starter as part of the contract. It is not known what Holmgren offered Delhomme to get him to sign. Delhomme is 35 years old.
That was the sign that the Quinn era in Cleveland was over before it ever really got started. The team traded him to Denver for a bucket of used footballs and RB that was a 7th round pick 2 years ago. Holmgren gave Quinn away. The likely trade value of Quinn would have been a 5th round this season and a conditional pick next year if he started with his new team.
At this point it looks like the QB lineup would be Delhomme, Seneca Wallace, and Brett Ratliff. There were rumors that the team also signed former Pitt University QB Palko but that has not been confirmed.
Jake Delhomme came to the Panthers in 2003 and became the starter that year. He started 15 game that year and all 16 in 04 and 05. In 05 he threw 24 TDs but has always had an interception issue. He threw 16 picks that year. He started only 13 games in 06 and 3 games in 07 due to injury. From 03-07 he had thrown for 97 TDs but 59 picks.
He came back in 08 and was on his way to his best year ever. At the bye on week 9 he had thrown for 1700 yards with a completion percentage of 61% and 9TDs with 5 picks. But something happened to him on the bye week. In the first game after the bye against the Raiders he threw 4 picks with just 1 TD. Thanks only to the inept Raider O the Panthers won 17-6. That game was in indications of trouble. From the bye on he threw a total of 6 TDs and 7 picks.
The Panthers made the playoffs without much help from their QB. The team hosted Kurt Warner and the Cards in the divisional round of the playoffs. He had what had to be the worst QB performance in years in the playoffs. He threw 5 picks and added a fumble for bad measure. The Panthers lost and were booed off the field 13-33. Even after the bad end to the season, Delhomme got a big contract that included a guaranteed 12M payment after the 09 season.
Delhomme came back in 09 with a renewed commitment. The Panthers should have realized that Delhomme wasn't any better in game 1 against the Eagles. He threw 0 TDs and 4 picks and lost a fumble. The team began to work seriously with Matt Moore at QB. Delhomme continued to start but after a week 12 4 interception game against the Jets, the Panthers had seen enough. Matt Moore went in and finished the season. That was the end of the Delhomme in Panther land.
Delhomme has several issues. He has lost his mechanics due to the problems on the Panther O line. His footwork is causing a lot of his picks. He tends to feel pressure that isn't there. He also was not been able to depend on his receivers to run precise routes. As a result, he waited until the receiver came open to throw the ball. That gives the DB time to close on the ball.
He has above average arm strength and has potential but needs to lose the bad habits that he developed over the last couple of seasons. If he does, he can help the team. As you can tell from the above, I don't have a lot of hope he will.
Ex-Seahawk QB Seneca Wallace. He is known by Brown Pres. Holgren but is 29 years old. In his 7 seasons he has only started 14 games and has a career passer rating of 83.1. That may not sound like a lot for most teams but compared to Anderson's 2009 rating of 42.1 and Quinn's of 67.2, Wallace looks like Otto Graham. I don't think Wallace is a legitimate NFL quarterback. He is just too inaccurate to be a full time QB. In addition, I have real doubt he will become effective in a west coast system as the starter. At best, he will be a below average QB.
The Browns had listed QB Brady Quinn on the NFL's equivalent of Craig's list. They did not get much interest and so did the deal with the Broncos. Quinn told the Cleveland PD he would welcome a trade if the team is not committed to him as the starter.
The Browns did get the best UFA TE by signing Benjamin Watson (Patriots) on a three-year deal worth $12 M. The contract includes $6M in guaranteed money. Watson is more of a receiver than a blocker but at least tries.
RB Payton Hillis who came in the deal with Denver for Quinn is a big back with decent speed. He has been fairly successful since he was a 7th round pick out of Arkansas in 08. I liked him coming out of school but he has not had much of a chance to prove his running ability. He can play FB or HB and at 240 pounds would fit a 1 back set as well. He is a down hill runner with very good vision but not enough agility to get to the holes he sees. Since the Browns have (at least for the second) a pro bowl quality FB in Vickers, Hillis would be a candidate for the big back to replace Lewis. He is not bad but is not worth a QB even like Quinn.
The team traded former #13 pick overall LB Kamerion Wimbley for a pick in 2011 plus a conditional pick in 2012. It is not certain that there will be a draft in 2012. That will depend on the new CBA. This was another give away. For a team that is desperate for difference makers on D, this was a stupid move by a football Czar that should know better. Wimbley was not the player the team expected but the chances of getting a better one with the picks they traded for is very unlikely.
Ex Browns:
TE Steve Heiden has been released. He never recovered from his injury last year and was replaced by UFA Watson from NE.
The Jets signed a one-year, $1.3 million contract with UFA S Brodney Pool.
ExQB Anderson is reportedly deciding between the Seahawks and the Cards. He will get a chance to compete for the starter spot in Arizona because the team is not sold on Leinart.
The bottom line:
Mr. Holmgren, you had better be right about your QB choices and the players you traded away for next to nothing. If not, we fans will ride your butt out of town on a rail just like your predecessors. Is that clear?
The Browns address their needs in free agency.
The Good
The team finally took care of Mr. Everything Cribbs. Last year he was the only thing worth buying a ticket to see. It is about time the team did the right thing.
The team signed free-agent OT Tony Pashos (49ers) for a reported three-year deal for $10.3 million. This is a key signing because it almost assures that St. Clair will not start at RT. Pashos is coming off a shoulder injury that cost him all but 1 game last season. Pashos is barely decent in both the run and the pass. He has limited agility and questionable feet for a T. He may be better suited at G than T. But he has good instincts and awareness. He will never be a pro bowl guy but a mail box post would be more effective than St. Clair.
They also signed LB Scott Fujita (Saints). Fujita can play inside or outside and started 103 of the 120 games in which he was active. He is not a blitz LB but holds up fairly well against the run and can cover receivers in the short zone. His size and ability to play all 4 LB spots makes this a nice addition. The other key is his Super Bowl ring. He gets instant credibility in the locker room having started for a SB winner. The Browns need all the winning attitude it can get.
The team is still a little green around the edges. They traded a conditional 2011 draft choice for Seahawk QB Seneca Wallace. We do not know which choices are involved but it was reported elsewhere as a "low" pick. He is known by Brown Pres. Holgren but is 29 years old. In his 7 seasons he has only started 14 games and has a life passer rating of 83.1. That may not sound like a lot for most teams but compared to Anderson's rating of 42.1 and Quinn's of 67.2, Wallace looks like Otto Graham. I don't think Wallace is a legitimate NFL quarterback. He is just too inaccurate to be a full time QB. He has a lot of the footwork problems that Quinn has. But Holmgren made this call and he feels he could be at least a quality backup. But he knows the Holmgren version of the West Coast offense and that will be helpful.
I am not at all sure that the QB merry-go-round has stopped spinning. I believe that there is still a chance that the Browns would take a QB with the 7th pick if one of the top 2 falls to them. That will not happen. However, there are a lot of promising QBs of the future available in the later rounds. They should take their favorite out of that group to challenge for #3.
The Bad
The team traded DE Williams to the Lions for a 5th round pick. Williams was never a good fit for the 3-4 and they paid a 2nd round pick to get him from the Pack just 2 seasons ago. This was another bad deal by the previous administration.
OL Ryan Tucker retired. He was a good player that always gave us all he had. Thanks for your effort and your love of the game. We appreciate it.
Look out for another possible QB controversy. Both Quinn and Wallace have said in different interviews that they expect to start. Holmgren has said he will avoid an open QB competition. Let's hope he makes his choice and lets that guy get all the reps possible prior to the regular season.
The Ugly
The Anderson era under center for the team was mostly ugly.
Post season Analysis – Offensive Line
For all but the last 4 games of 09 Offensive is the best way to describe the pass and run blocking of the right side of the Browns line. The injury of RT St. Clair was addition by subtraction. The turnaround was his injury and being replaced by Womack.
LT Joe Thomas is as good as any OT in the league. He has great feet and was about the only early pick that panned out for the team.
LG Eric Steinbach is solid and can handle DTs 1 on 1.
C Alex Mack struggled early but became a decent C. He still struggles on pass protection but is improving.
RG Rex Hadnot stepped in when Womack moved to T and did well. He is better blocking the run but problems passing in the last 4 games had nothing to do with Hadnot. The team should be looking for a replacement.
RT Floyd Womack was a better T than a G. He became the change that saved the team. He will start the season as the RT and if Mangini has an IQ above 10 he will not be replaced by St. Clair again.
G/C Hank Fraley was better with 1 hand than expected. He played hurt and still did as well as can be expected.
T (supposedly) John St. Clair was the worst starting T in the league and that is saying a lot. He has gotten QBs hurt in St. Louis, Miami, Chicago and Cleveland. Hopefully he won't make the 2010 team.
G Billy Yates was a non-factor. He may make the roster but is 29 and has only started 11 games in 7 seasons.
G/T Ryan Tucker was a good player before his series of injuries took his quickness away. He no longer has the feet to play T and will likely retire.
The team needs to draft a RT and RG somewhere in this draft. A good team drafts 1 O lineman every year. Expect them to use a 3rd on a T and a 5th on a G depending on who falls to them.
Post season Analysis – Tight Ends
The Browns have quantity if not quality. Mangenous traded pro bowl TE Winslow to the Bucs. Heiden figured to be the starter but he was hurt in 08 and never was healthy enough to contribute much. He had only 10 catches and a 7.3 yard average. He will likely retire. The team signed FA Royal who had been cut by the Bills.
Robert Royal was the starter for 11 games of the season. However, he disappeared late in the year and never contributed much. He played with an injured finger most of the year. But he is only an average blocker and caught only 11 passes. At best he was a stop gap player with very little up side. His best year was 08 and he had only 33 catches.
Evan Moore was the best of the group. He had 12 catches but was only active in the final 5 games. He has some speed and seems to have better hands than any of the other TEs. He is able to get open and has some potential for the team. His blocking technique needs a lot of work but he at least tries. He has the size to be a decent blocker for the run.
Michael Gaines has played for 5 teams in his 6 years of NFL experience. He started 7 games but had only 5 catches. He is never going to be anything other than a decent reserve but may be the best blocker of the group. Prior to being signed by the Browns he had been out of football in 08 playing only 1 game for the Bears that year.
Greg Estandia was signed by the Browns after being cut by the Jags last season. He was a non-factor and will be a long shot at best to make the team this year.
Given all the above, it is obvious that the team will be in the market for a TE in the draft or free agency. There is very little at this point in the FA market. I have ignored RFAs because the cost in draft choices will be higher than the Browns would be willing to pay.
UFA players
Crumpler TN UFA Crump is 32 and is a year past his best ball. He can still block but his age and lack of speed make him an unlikely Brown.
Hartsock Jets UFA Hartsock would be Mangini's choice. He is 30, an ex Jet and an above average blocker. He does not have much speed and is not a pass catching option.
Watson Patriots UFA is a decent prospect. He is 29 but is decent combination of a receiver and a blocker. The Browns could do a lot worse than Watson.
Rookies:
2nd Aaron Hernandez TE Florida Hernandez is a receiver with no apparent interest in blocking. He has the best projected speed among TE prospects. If he runs under 4.6 he may go in the first round.2nd round Jimmy Graham Miami He has the greatest up side and is the greatest risk. He played only 1 season of FB in college but is an basketball player with size, athletic ability, hands, and speed. He doesn't understand coverages and runs sloppy routes. He had a nice Senior Bowl.
3rd Tony Moeaki TE Iowa I like Moeaki. He has good technique and is a decent athlete. His size and speed make in interesting but he is not much of a blocker. He also has a history of injury.
5th Jim Dray TE Stanford Dray is a blocker first and a receiver second. He is rising based on his blocking but has some potential in the short routes if he improves his routes.
Based on Consensus drafts who will be available for the Browns at pick 7?
Prior to the Combine the projections seem to beginning to agree on who will be picked where in the first round. WARNING: Pre draft information from teams is misleading at best and outright lies at worst. We all should take their statements with as much belief as we do promises by political candidates.
1 St. Louis and 2 Detroit both seem to be leaning to taking the two best DL candidates Suh and McCoy. Both teams desperately need DL help. The Rams might take a QB but indications are that they do not believe that either of the two top guys are worth a 1st pick overall.
3 Tampa will likely take S Berry from Tennessee. That is a guy that would look really good in Orange and Brown. He won't be available at 7.
4 Washington might take a QB but are more likely to go OL and pick T Okung Oklahoma State. No QB will last long behind the Redskin O line as it stands now. It got very old very quickly.
5 Kansas City needs everything. Their D is among the worse in the league. I think the consensus is right that they will take IB McClain Alabama.
6 Seattle is a wild card. They also need D help but could use an O lineman as well. But Okung is gone and so is Berry. Given this draft so far, the Seahawks will likely take CB Haden from Florida. That will make the Browns very sad.
So if the board looks like this, who should the Browns take?
QB Jimmy Clausen Notre Dame Clausen is the consensus top QB now. He had a very good 09 but is not the hot prospect he was coming out of high school. He has been in a pro system but still has problems with mechanics. He has gotten better but has struggled against top college competition. To me he looks a lot like Quinn with a little better arm strength.
QB Sam Bradford Oklahoma There is no question that Bradford would have been picked ahead of any QB in the 09 draft after leading his team to the BcS Championship game and winning the Heisman. But he has now been hurt twice in 09 and has fallen behind Clausen in the minds of scouts. He has good accuracy with decent arm strength and above average vision. IF he is healthy at the Combine, I like his credentials better than Clausen for the west coast O that Holmgren prefers.
WR Dez Bryant Oklahoma St. In the College All Star Challenge Bryant looked very good. He has some conditioning issues but that is to be expected after missing the majority of the season due to a suspension by the NCAA for not being honest about a meeting with former NFL star Deion Sanders. Bryant would add a legitimate #1 WR which would be a nice change for whoever plays QB.
Those are the "usual" suspects that everyone has on their list for the Browns. How about a pick outside the main stream.
S Earl Thomas Texas Thomas can do it all and reminds me of Bob Sanders of the Colts. That is good and bad. Thomas has a great understanding of the game, attacks the run, and can cover like a CB. But the bad is that Thomas and Sanders are both undersized and Sanders has been hurt more often than he has been healthy over the last few years. I really like Thomas. He is tough as nails and at 20 could be a fixture in the Browns backfield for years.
2010 Browns Draft Needs Prior to Free Agency
The Browns need so much that they need to let the draft come to them rather than going after a specific position with a given draft choice. That means taking the best player on the board with each pick rather than reaching for a player that is not as good because he fits a preconceived need. They need talent everywhere. For the long run improvement of the team, the more talent the better.
This is particularly true with their first round pick #7. They badly need a difference maker on D. That kind of player is not likely to be available after the second round. Their priority for the #7 pick should be DT Suh (Nebraska), S Berry (Tennessee), and DT McCoy (Oklahoma). However, all three will probably be gone by their pick.
The list of needs in order in my opinion includes 1) #1 WR, 2) DB, 3) OLB 4) DE or DT 5) DB 6) ILB
However, the key to the draft is one question. Do the Browns believe that they need a starting QB? If so, they need to take one this year because there is only Locker (Washington) in the 1st round projection for next season. Holmgren has one of the best reputations for developing a QB in all of the NFL. If he believes that QB Quinn can be developed into a top quality starter, the above list is probably pretty close to his list. If not, QB will be the top priority.
The next question is which QB do they like the best. Most experts prefer Clausen (Notre Dame). I don't have him as highly rated as they do. To me, he looks too much like Quinn with a little stronger arm. I would prefer Bradford (Oklahoma) IF he is healthy. He makes better decisions than Clausen and I believe has better vision of the field and is more accurate. If he is not healthy, they should decide to wait and take one of the second level QBs like McCoy (Texas 2nd round), LeFevour (Central Michigan 3rd and rising fast), Snead (Ole Miss 3rd), Canfield (Oregon St. 3rd) or Pike (Cincinnati 4th) with a 3rd or 4th round pick. Of that group, I like LeFevour. He has a strong arm, good vision and has played in a combination spread/pro offense.
While Clausen will probably be gone, they may be able to even trade down to 12 or 14 and still get Bradford. That should provide at least another 2nd round pick. Even if they can not move back, the chance to get a franchise QB would be worth using the 7th pick.
In the second round on they should let the draft come to them. They must improve the talent level of the team and should take the very best player on the board with the possible exception of LT. I believe that they should find a FA RT to replace St. Clair. They also need an experienced West Coast FA QB or one from a trade to help develop the young starter.
Post season Analysis – Receivers
The Browns' receiver corps was not exactly outstanding going into the 2009 season so Mangini worked on it and made it worse. Starting WR Edwards could not catch a cold if he was swimming in Lake Erie in February. He was traded. WR Stallworth was suspended because of an accident in Miami. That could happen as early as next Monday. Holmgren has announced that when Stallworth is reinstated, he will be released by the Browns.
The most reliable receiver was TE Winslow but Mangenius traded him to TB. There has been a ton of discussion about the QB. However, if the Browns don't fix the receiver problem, it won't make any difference. We will see a 100 yard passing game or less a lot in 2010.
To make up for a lack of receivers, Mangini drafted 2 guys but rookie WRs usually don't produce much. The lack of NFL quality WRs is the weakest area of the team and their top need.
Mohamed Massaquoi Massaquoi came on as a WR as the season wore on. He ended up being the only deep threat with 34 catches for 18.4 per. He does not run good patterns, struggles to get open except on fly patterns, and can not get off the line against press coverage. He has average hands and good but not great speed. Massaquoi does not read coverages well. Too often he went one way on an option route and the ball went to a DB behind him. He is at best a #2 guy. He disappears against double coverage and will not fight for the ball despite his nice size. He does block very well down field for the run.
WR/KR/PR/Wildcat QB Cribbs, Josh Cribbs is the best player on the team. He contributes in a lot of ways however, is not a #1 or #2 WR at this point. He understands patterns having been a college QB but has not mastered running routes or getting open. He also has only average hands. In 2009 he averaged only 6 yards per catch because most of his catches were on swing patterns out of the backfield. Bears' multi-purpose guy Hester has asked the team to take him off the WR list to return to special teams. Cribbs is way too valuable to use him as a starting WR.
Brian Robiskie Robo was fairly productive when he was in the lineup. However, for some reason he found himself in Mangini's dog house and only played in 11 games despite being a high 2nd round pick. Robo is a possession receiver that can get open on short routes. He has above average hands and should have been a bigger contributer to the team in 09. The question is how much will he contribute in 2010?
Mike Furrey Furrey is at best a slot Welker type WR. He is not big or fast but has good hands, runs accurate patterns, and can get open. The problem with Furrey was that the D backfield was so bad, he had to start there toward the end of the season. Even with a couple of DBs from the draft, Furrey will likely spend more time on D than on O. Furrey is a UFA.
Chansi Stuckey Another ex-Jet that never fit in--what a surprise. Stuckey started the first 3 games then disappeared from the O. He played a little DB as well but did not contribute much on either side of the ball. I don't expect Stuckey to make the team on O.
Syndric Steptoe Steptoe is the wild card in the WR group. He went on IR before the regular season but started 5 games in 08. He has some speed and hands but is not a west coast route runner at this point. He needs a lot of work but enough talent to make it worth the staff's time to try him.
What should the Browns do at WR?
Many sights have them picking a WR with their 1st pick. I think they will do that but the WR group in the 2010 draft is deep enough to take a difference maker on D in the 1st round then a WR or RB in the second and 3rd. The first order of business at WR should be to sign a free agent that is or could be a #1 type guy. Rookies as I said do not usually develop until their 3rd year in the league.
The UFA WRs include:
Brandon Marshall DV who is an outstanding talent who comes with enough baggage to fill a stadium. If you can get by the attitude, he is a 100+ a year WR with speed and hands.
Lee Evans BF has never had a QB that could get him the ball regularly so he would fit right in with the Browns. I like Evans more than most do.
Lance Moore NO was hurt in 09 but had 79 catches in 08. He is a quality WR that should not cost fortune to sign.
Miles Austin DA will not hit the FA market. The Boys will resign him if they have half a brain.
Others: Jason Avant PH, Arnaz Battle SF, Vincent Jackson SD, Brandon Lloyd DV, Brad Smith NG
Here are some of the WRs that should be available in the 2nd round or later:
Mardy Gilyard Cincinnati 2nd great hands and decent speed.
Jordan Shipley Texas 2nd very good speed (4.47) and above average hands. I like him a lot.
Jacoby Ford Clemson 2nd has top speed but is short (5-9). Needs work on routes.
Dexter McCluster Mississippi 3rd is very small (5-7) but catches over the middle and is hard to tackle.
Riley Cooper Florida 3rd or 4th great speed/size combo at 6-3 with a 4.47 40. In the 4th, a steal.
Freddie Barnes Bowling Green 5th or 6th a crafty effective slot receiver. I like him but he is slow.
Post season Analysis – Running backs
NOTE: Over the next few weeks, we will look at every position of the team with an eye toward what we can expect to see in 2010.
One of the top needs for the Browns in 2010 will be RB.
Jamal Lewis--Lewis has talked about retiring. He is old and for the first time seems brittle. That is not a good combination. If he comes back he is not going to have the speed to be a starter. His averaged has fallen each of the last 3 years with the Browns. Last year he averaged only 3.5 per carry. I doubt he will return if he is not going to be the starter.
Jerome Harrison--The picture of Harrison was on milk cartons because he was missing most of the season. When Lewis went down he became the starter and gained 862 yards rushing in 7 starts. Conventional wisdom (which is very seldom wise) says that he can not hold up for an entire season as the starter. He is 205 pounds and there have been a lot of very good backs at that weight. The way he avoids direct hits will help him survive. I would agree that few backs can carry 35 times a game for 16 games. But he could be a starter in a WC O. He has very good speed, has good vision to see the hole and is patient waiting for blocks to develop. He is a solid receiver and is OK at picking up the blitz.
Chris Jennings--Jennings was a non-factor in his rookie year. He did start one game but had only 63 carries for a 3.5 average. His ability to make the team next year will depend on his contributions to special teams.
Josh Cribbs can not be a full time RB because he is too valuable in other areas. RBs can be found but a multi-talented guy like Cribbs comes around very seldom.
James Davis is a total unknown. He was the starter at Clemson in front of Spiller who now is projected to be a 1st round pick. He was solid late in games in the preseason but that was against guys that are flipping burgers for a living now. He was hurt in a contact drill when he was not wearing shoulderpads. That happened in Mangenius' "opportunity session" which was just another really bad idea. Davis has a low center of gravity and runs hard. The off season is going to be critical for Davis. He might be a change of pace for Harrison or a possible starter. We just have not seen enough of him to know.
Fullback Vickers is playing at an All Pro level but is a blocker not a runner.
The Draft
Running backs seem to slide down the draft because there are usually only a couple of teams that need them and this year the RB crop looks good. Given the size of the guys on the roster, the team will be looking for a thumper rather than a scat back. They need to get a difference maker in the first round probably on D. The Browns will probably look to the WR spot at 2 if they don't get one in the first round. RB should be on the agenda for the 2nd or 3rd round at the earliest. Here are some candidates.
Jonathan Dwyer, Georgia Tech Dwyer is 235 but is projected to run a 4.4. He will be an early to mid 2nd round pick. He ran the ball when every D that he played against knew the team could not throw much. Even so he averaged 7 yards per carry. He is also young and has not been beaten up too much in college. He is an inside runner with a good jump step and decent vision. He needs to run a little lower to avoid big hits.
Anthony Dixon, Mississippi State is also 235 and is projected to run a 4.5 40. He should be a late 2 or 3rd round pick. He has good feet, and excellent lower body strength. He had only 20 catches in 09 but doesn't look like a guy that struggles as a receiver out of the backfield. If he is available in the 3rd round he would be a good value for the Browns.
Toby Gerhart, Stanford is a classic thumper. He is not fast but runs very hard and seems to move the pile composed of 300+ pounders. He has had a lot of carries in college but has been durable. He will be available in the 3rd round for Cleveland. I really like Toby but am concerned about his weight and speed. He is projected to run a 4.6. If he runs slower than that at the combine, he will fall to the 4th round and would be a good first RB pick for the Browns.
Others in the middle rounds could be Montario Hardesty from Tennessee (4th), Ryan Mathews of Fresno State (4th) or Keith Toston from Oklahoma State (5th).
Post season Analysis – Quarterbacks
NOTE: Over the next few weeks, we will look at every position of the team with an eye toward what we can expect to see in 2010.
The biggest question in Brownie land is who will be the starting QB for 2010? No one knows for sure except perhaps Pres. Holmgren and that is not certain. Here are some thoughts going into the off season for the Browns.
Brady Quinn
Brady was the latest fair haired boy coming to save the franchise from QB hell. Not so far. Does anyone remember the furor about the drafting of Tim (I'm on the) Couch?
Brady played better in 08 than he did in 09. He has enough arm strength and the intelligence to be a west coast QB but that is as far as it goes now. The key ability for a WC QB is accuracy. He was bad in 08 and horrible in 09.
The problem is his mechanics. They got worse in 09. The good news is that Holmgren is know for developing QBs and Quinn needs a lot of development. Mechanics start with footwork. Anyone that watched Joe Montana play knows that the footwork is the key to timing and timing is at the heart of the success of the WC O. The ball must be out at the count after the 3, 5, and 7 step drop. The drops have to be made in exactly the same way every time. Quinn has not perfected the drop. After being chased around like a butcher surrounded by a pack of wild dogs in college as well as in the pros, Quinn has lost the muscle memory of the drops if he ever had it.
Quinn does have the intelligence and therefore I assume the ability to read Ds given time to study them. All reports indicate that he has the work ethic necessary to spend the time in the film room to do the job. But his play on the field shows no indication he has learned anything. He throws into double coverage when he has single coverage receivers available. There is no question that some of his bad habits come from a lack of protection but he has to get over that. Great QBs ignore the pressure and are still accurate. Only game time will help him learn how to do that.
Derek Anderson
Anderson is a mystery. He was a pro bowl QB in 07 when he threw 29 TDs. In 08 his completion rate fell to 50% from 56% and he threw 9 TDs with 8 picks. In 09 he completed just 44% of his throws. He too suffered deterioration of his skills in 09. Anderson has a classic “big” arm. But it doesn't matter how far you can throw the ball if you can't get it in the same area code of the receiver. In 07 he did but not since.
Anderson can not throw the outlet pass. He puts the same force on the 2 yard pass that he does on the 40 yard pass. His short and medium accuracy has never been good even in 07. He is not a fit at all for the WC offense. He has very little trade value and a decent bonus due before the 2010 season kickoff. He will be gone.
Brett Ratliff
Ratliff is a non-factor. He was outplayed by the 4th QB Richard Bartel in the last preseason game of 09. But because he was a former Jet Bartel was cut. Bartel is now in Washington.
Others
There will be a new QB to replace Anderson. He will probably come from a trade or free agency. He will likely be an experienced vet. There are a few names flying around and I will avoid those. However, a few names come to mind that would be a fit and should be available.
Chad Pennington Miami -- I wrote once that he had the head of a coach, the heart of a lion and the arm of a chicken. Chicken or not, he had a great 08 but was injured again in 09. He is a coach on the field, had deep experience in the west coast offense, and is capable (assuming he comes back from the injury) of playing as a backup if necessary. He has been replaced by Chad Henne and is unlikely to be retained by the Dolphins.
Kerry Collins Tennessee -- Because Young came around this past year, Collins might be cut or traded to take pressure off Young. He is very experienced and may still have the physical skills to play if necessary although it looked like he got old in a hurry earlier this year. He has done a lot to help Young and would be a good mentor.
Jon Kitna Dallas -- Kitna has seen it all and played in most systems. He is smart and a solid backup. He would require a trade with the Boys but JJ is always willing to deal.
Jake Delhomme Carolina -- DelHomme is also injured now. He will likely be replaced as the starter and be available. He has some background in the WC and is a smarter QB than he shows on the field.
Mark Brunell New Orleans -- Mark is another very experienced QB in every offense. He is also capable of stepping in if needed. He is currently under contract with the Saints but might be available in a trade.
This offseason for the Browns should be very interesting.
What we know:
Holmgren is the President of the team. Mangini and his staff will stay for at least the 2010 season. Former Eagle GM Tom Heckard is the new GM under Holmgren. Former GM Kokinis is suing the Browns to get his contract honored. And finally, KR/WR/PR/Wild Cat QB Cribbs hasn't gotten paid yet. That is it. That is all we know for sure.
Speculation:
I have rubbed my crystal ball and consulted my daughter Kristina who knows more about football than most men I know, and this is what we speculate MAY happen.
Mangini will not be the coach in 2011 if there is a season. He is on double secret probation with Holmgren and his new administration. Any slip up or serious disagreement on policy between them and Mangini will do a disappearing act even better than Kokinis' being frog walked out of the building.
The speculation by others is that he is waiting for Jon “Chuckie” Gruden to become available to take over the coaching duties. That may be the case. Holmgren is very careful with his words. He has said that the offer he was given by Lerner was President, GM, coach or any or all of the above. According to his own words it was a tough decision on coaching himself or letting someone else to do it. Holmgren has a BIG job ahead of him. There are a ton of problems with the team particularly on offense. There are also a ton of contracts that have to be done or players let go. Those decisions will take time.
By the start of the 2011off season (if there is one) he should have things in the front office under control. If Gruden is available he may go that way. However, there is at least as good a chance that he will name himself HC and bring in the staff that he wants.
We don't know a lot about the qualifications of GM Tom Heckard. In Philly he did not have the final word on whom to draft and whom to pass on. He gathered the scouting reports from the scouts and organized them for use in the war room. Only time will tell how he does as a full service GM in Cleveland. However, I doubt that Holmgren would risk his reputation on someone about whom he had major concerns. I will give Mike the benefit of the doubt until evidence is in.
Cribbs will get his money but Kokinis may not.
The Browns End the Season with 4 Wins
The Browns ran over the Jags just the same way that they ran over the Steelers, Chiefs and Raiders. The passing game was missing in action. RB Harrison ran the ball 33 times for 127 yards but had only a 3.8 average. The difference with the Jags game was the lack of long runs. FB Vickers had an outstanding game again blocking for the run. LG Steinbach also had a great game pulling for the run outside. He would have been all pro if he played for a winning team. He is a key to the future of the team.
QB Anderson had another lack luster game passing only 11 times for 86 yards and 1 pick. In the 4 game winning streak, the Browns have had only 1 game passing for more than 100 yards. So how did the Browns win 4 straight to end the season for the first time in more than 20 years? The schedule.
The key to winning a game is only partly which team you play. It also depends on when you play them. The Browns caught the Steelers in a 4 game slide. Their team was beaten up. QB Roethlisberger was coming off a concussion and clearly wasn't right.
They then got to play 2 of the AFC West teams at the bottom of the worst division in the league. They finished up with a Jags team that had just been knocked out of the playoffs and had lost 3 in a row and were certain to lose their coach Jack Del Rio.
So, we are left with a D that is starting to get it and seems to be competitive with the bottom third of the NFL and an offense that can run against the bottom third of the league but couldn't hit water passing if they were in the middle of the Pacific Ocean. That basically limits the team as it is now constituted to winning 4-6 games a year. This team doesn't have the talent to get over the 8-8 hump. If a team is satisfied with a losing season, it is a loser. The Cleveland fans deserve better than that.
For most teams that did not make the playoffs, the season is over. For the Browns, the real story is just beginning. Football Guru Holmgren is on his way to Cleveland as you read this. Everything will change again. There is reason to believe that this time things may be different.
The indications are that Holmgren will hire a GM and coach that fit his “system.” Holmgren is a west coast offense type guy. He also prefers the 4-3 to a 3-4. The question is what will happen? No one other than Holmgren knows for sure. Here are some guesses—and that is exactly what they are.
Holmgren will let Mangini go along with his staff.
That is both good and bad. I am convinced that Mangini would never have been successful if he continued to have total power. The Browns had a less than acceptable draft in 09 due to Mangini and his insider deals with the Jets among others. Mangini hired OC Daboll—enough said.
The Bad side is that D Coordinator Ryan will probably go with Mangini. I think he is a keeper. He had the guys playing hard for him. Remember, in the first 3 wins in the late run, the guy that got hit with GatorAid was Ryan and not Mangini.
Jim Brown and Bernie Kosar will be less influential.
Holmgren recognizes the need to honor the history of a team like the Browns. He will welcome the former players and have them around the team when appropriate. However, Brown and Kosar will not have the amount of influence they did when they had the ear of Lerner. He will refer them to Holmgren rather than act on their suggestions.
The guys that Holmgren brings in will have a history with him.
There are dozens of rumors floating around about who will be the next head coach. Don't believe any of them. The only thing that is sure is that Holmgren wants this to work as soon as possible. He will only hire those he trusts completely. He won't risk his reputation on anyone he doesn't know.
Any Change to the Browns' Offense Will Be Welcome
During the majority of this season the Browns' O led by rookie OC Daboll has spent way too much time parked at the corner of 3rd and Long. While 3rd down is the key to a successful offense, it is impossible to be consistent when it faces 3rd and 9 or more yards. The Run, Run, Pass that Daboll called way too often killed the 2009 season for the team. It also resulted in the demise of the Mangini era in Cleveland. That is proof of one thing—in sports you have to take the good with the bad.
The O has evolved over the last few games. Several things have changed. The biggest change was in the style of blocking. The team had been using what is called man blocking where the O lineman must follow the player opposite him in both running and pass blocking. There was very little pass protection and holes so small a mouse couldn't crawl through the D line.
For the past few games, the team has changed to zone blocking. The advantage is that given the lack of foot speed of the right side of the line in particular, zone blocking is much easier for the team than man. With the change, the team has been able to open holes against the weaker D lines in the league. The question is why did it take so long to make the change? Did anyone think that St. Clair had the feet to be effective in a man style system? No one that has any ability to judge talent would expect a man system to work with this line.
So how excited should we be about the improvement in the O and the fact that they have won 3 in a row? Somewhat encouraged. The fact that they caught the stumbling Steeler team at the bottom of their fall helped. The other two wins came over the worst AFC West teams. These wins didn't come over playoff teams.
The addition of Holmgren as Football Czar will change things but it should be change for the better. The loss of St. Clair was addition by subtraction.
Frankly, any experienced OC would be better than Daboll. A good HC would have known that Daboll was over his head in that position and replaced him after the preseason. Other newbie OCs were replaced before the season or early on by stronger head coaches that were willing to admit they had made a mistake. Those organizations were willing to correct their errors. But not Mangenus.
A good OC would have corrected the footwork and mechanics of both Anderson and Quinn but that was not done either. Without good mechanics passing accuracy is impossible.
Had these things been fixed early, Holmgren would not be here and the season would have been a lot more enjoyable.
The major question around Cleveland is will Holmgren keep Mangini or not? I predict he will not be retained. Mangini will be let go not for what he has done but what he has failed to do.
What should we make of the 2 wins in a row by the Browns?
The Doctor said to his patent “I have good news and bad news.” The good news is your tests showed you have have 48 hours to live. The bad news is I should have called you yesterday. That is similar to the situation of the Browns. The good news is that they have 2 wins in a row. The bad news is the 3-11 record. Like most things, the secret to the meaning of the season is in the details.
The wins over both the Steelers and the Chiefs were accomplished by one man—Josh Cribbs. In the game against the Chiefs QB Quinn threw for a grand total of 66 yards. UCH!!! Take the 2 TD returns away and the score is 34-27 Chiefs win. The Browns were able to run very well against the Chiefs who were without key members of their D. RB Harrison had 286 yards of rushing setting a Browns record for a single game. However, we have to remember that the great game came against another of the worst teams in the league. If the Browns were in the AFC Weak and could play the Chiefs twice a year, that might mean something. All it means now is that given a hole, he can run effectively.
NOW the BIG question—Do 2 wins save Mangini's job or at least should it? In a word, NO!
If the Browns' D had followed up a great effort against the Steelers with a second outstanding game vs. the Chiefs it would have shown improvement. What we saw instead is a D that couldn't stop one of the bottom 3 Os in the league and allowed 27 points against them (I don't consider the fumble on the punt chargeable to the D). The D allowed 331 yards passing and 165 rushing to the Chiefs.
The passing O showed no improvement from day 1. Quinn's mechanics have not improved or stabilized and he is no more accurate than he was at the beginning of the year. He still misses wide open receivers on deep passes.
There are still O line problems in pass protection although the line improved after St. Clair went out. That says a lot about how Mangini picks his starters.
Overall, there is nothing with the exception of Cribbs that indicates to me that this team is ready to make a move in the league. I am glad they won a couple of games because the fans deserve at least some hope for next year. But unless Holmgren comes as everyone is sure will happen, Lerner will not fire Mangini and we will see Jet QB Kellen Clemens as the starter next year. DOUBLE OUCH!
Forget what Mangini Says, His Body Language Tells the Truth
When he was asked about Mike Holmgren coming on board as the GM and Football Czar, he said “I think anytime you can bring in someone with a wealth of experience as not just a position coach and coordinator, but as a head coach, it’s great. It’s great to have those guys.”
The words sound fine but watching the video, I was struck with his body language. Having taught salesmanship to industry, I have become a student of body language. He was shaking his head side to side all the time he was talking about Holmgren. That is almost a certain indication that he did not believe what he was saying. In addition his eyebrows were elevated when he talked about keeping his job in a Holmgren administration. That indicated that he doubted he would be retained.
What does all this mean? Probably if Mangini is stripped of his control of the draft and ability to cut deals with other teams, he will resign. I think his pride will not allow him to give up those powers that he was granted just this off season by Owner Lerner. So Lerner may accomplish 2 goals with one hire. Not only will he gain some football background but he may avoid paying off a failed Coach's salary.
I still do not think that Holmgren is the right choice. See my earlier article on Holmgren's poor drafts while he was head coach and GM of the Seahawks.
Did Mangini save his job with the 13-6 win over the Steelers?
Before the upset of the Steelers by Cleveland last night, I felt that the chances of Mangini saving his job was about 40%. Now the chance that he won't be fired seems to stand at about 60%. But that does not mean there is a 60% chance he will be the head coach in June of 2010.
IF, and it is an IF the size of the state of Alaska, the Browns in 2 out of the final 3 games, Mangini's chance of avoiding a pink slip will rise to about 75%. However, there are factors a foot that will affect the chances of him being at the helm for the draft and next season.
Let's not kid ourselves that this is the same Steeler team that we have met and lost to over and over again. They had losses in free agency and to injury since their Super Bowl win in February. They had lost 4 straight games coming into the game last night. They have a record of losing over 80% of their games when S Troy Polamalu is out. They lost DE Roye to retirement and CB Gay slowed due to injury as well. The win last night had a lot more to do with how far the Steelers had fallen than it did with how much the Browns have improved. Don't forget that this Steeler team lost at home last week to the Raiders led by QB Gradkowski. Do you remember how he looked last year? Does 7-21 for 26 yards with 0 TDs, 3 picks and 4 sacks ring a bell?
The sacks that the team got were more due to very bad pass protection and nice effort by the front 7 than talent. The Steeler O line has allowed more sacks than our Congress has bad earmark spending projects this season. Former RT Starks who was beaten out by journeyman Colon is now the starting LT responsible for protecting the QB's blind side.
In the NFL, you lose three times more games than you win scoring 13 points. The sub Steeler DB's dropped more potential interceptions than the Browns WRs caught. But there were improvements. One of the biggest is at C where 1st round pick Mack is doing much better blocking the run. Several times he handled the Steeler NT 1 on 1 which left the guards to pull and block linebackers at the edge to allow nice gains. That is huge improvement and can be credited to coaching.
The D played well despite a flood of injuries. They forced field goal attempts rather than allowing TDs in the red zone. They shut down the run (but Pittsburgh has not been able to run very well the last couple of years) and played with good effort. I can't help but wonder if they were playing for HC Mangini or DC Ryan.
Back to the issue of Mangini's survival. Two factors would lead to Mangenous staying with the Browns. First, the team is already paying a gaggle of former coaches. Owner Lerner may well decide that the cost of paying off another staff is too high a price to bear. Second, Learner may not be able to find a football guru with great credibility to take his Czar job. I can't see a Cowher or Shanahan being willing to try to fix the mess that Mangini Inc. has created. Don't forget, he gave away the 3 marketable assets that the team had in the draft pick, Winslow and Edwards with almost nothing of value in return.
That leads me to the wild card—Bernie Kosar. It is well known that Mangini has a personal disdain for Kosar and even greater dislike for anyone looking over his shoulder. IF Lerner can't find a name brand there is a good chance that his choice for VP/GM and head Czar would be Kosar. I believe that would cause Mangini to resign rather than submit to constant management by Kosar.
IF Lerner changes coaches without a Czar in place, we are liable to end up with Wade Phillips after he is fired by Dallas. How is that for a change you can believe in?
Where have all the draft choices gone, Long time passing!
The Browns lost again. At 1-11, that is not news. But there is some news that came out of the 30-23 loss to the Chargers Sunday. The news was someone found the picture of WR Brian Robiskie on a missing person ad on a milk carton and contacted Mangini. Robo actually showed up on the field and had 4 catches for 69 yards.
The Browns moved the ball down the field on the first possession and scored for the first time in 34 games. That is new as well.
Two issues must be discussed. First, why has Robo, the 36th pick of this year's draft, been on the shelf all season?
Robo's Dad is long time WR coach and former Cleveland interim head coach Terry Robiskie. Anyone that watched Robo Jr. play at Ohio State knew that he ran very disciplined routes. He also has exceptional hands. The Browns have seen ball after ball dropped by their so called “veteran” receivers. But that didn't seem to matter to Mangini. He should have promoted Robo to the starting lineup weeks ago. But Mangini's pride would not allow that.
The answer is that he has been on double secret probation due to being in Coach Mangenous' dog house. How does something like that happen in the NFL? The NFL stands for Not For Long for coaches that allow personal feelings to determine who plays and who does not. This is just one more case where Mangini's pride has gotten in the way of the team. That alone is reason to fire him.
The second issue is the score on the first possession. The play calling was clearly different than in the rest of the game. We don't know for sure but someone taught OC “Dumbbell” Daboll how to script the first series of plays. That person was undoubtedly QB Coach Smith, a former OC with the Saints. Why hasn't Daboll been demoted? How can a proud franchise like the Browns allow itself to be the laughing stock of the entire league? Don't forget that just 2 years ago, this was one of the highest scoring O's in the league. After the dismal preseason it was obvious to everyone that Daboll was in way over his head. A quality HC would have immediately sent Daboll back to the QB coach spot and made Smith OC. Again, Mangini's pride prevented him from seeing the danger signs or acting on them if he noticed the lack of points.
After the first series, the play calling went back to the miserable mediocrity that has distinguished it from anything even close to NFL level since day 1 of this administration. The comeback at the end of the game was due to the need to throw every play. The situation took the shackles off the 1850 style O that Daboll seems to use.
Mangini acts like he is totally safe in his job. He has shown no intention of changing or even letting the rest of the world know what (if anything) he is thinking. He is ignoring the screams of agony from the fans like he was a member of Congress. The people may have to wait until November of 2010 to relieve a spend thrift Congress of the keys to the treasury. That is not true of Mangini. One man can put Mangini in his place—the unemployment line.
I add my voice to those that have already called for Mangini to be fired. It is way past time that be done.
The Browns still looking at the 2nd overall pick in 2010
In every radio broadcast of the Browns the announcer says that any rebroadcast or other use of the descriptions of this game without the express written consent of the Browns is prohibited. That is the most ludicrous statement since the spend-thrift Congress said it is against sending more troops to the Afghan theater because of the cost. Watching or listening to the game the first time is painful enough. Who other than a masochist would want to listen to it a second time?
The rule of thumb is that if you can stop the run and run the ball, you will be competitive in the league. That is particularly true in the AFC North. The Browns can't do either. Now stopping the run will be even more difficult with the injuries the D suffered in a very physical game against Cincy yesterday. The best player on the D, NT Rogers, was on crutches after the game joining DE Smith, LB Wimbley, LB Bowens, S Pool, and a couple of others with lesser injuries in the training room.
The 1-10 record is the worst in Browns' history. The team couldn't have beaten the U of Cincinnati Bearcats let alone the Bengals. Had Cincy not played down to the level of their opponent, the score could have been whatever they wanted. The Browns O did nothing to give the D any rest. O Coordinator Daboll had one play that was at least interesting—the pass by Cribbs to Quinn out of the wildcat. Quinn was 15-34 for 100 yards. Most of his completions again were at or behind the line of scrimmage. Lewis had 11 carries for only 40 yards. That is not going to get the win against any NFL team.
The team may not win another game. The problem is lack of talent. Mangini has given away the few marketable assets the team had and got nothing much in return. He has hurt this team for years. 2 of his second round draft choices are so deeply buried in his dog house that they were not dressed for this game or many others. As much as I would like to see the team use the 1st or 2nd pick to get a DT to stop the run, the best move may be to trade down to get more 1st and 2nd round picks. After the season, I will put a draft plan together. Of course if Mangini is still in charge, he will use his first 3 picks on special team players.
The future games against Oakland and Jacksonville will likely be blacked out locally. That is one of the kindest things the NFL could do for the City. Cleveland and Ohio have been through enough with the economy. We don't need the aggravation of having to watch more inept junior high reserve quality football.
The Browns are now on the clock
The football gods sent down a bolt of lightening and a bad call on the last play of the game against the Browns and the Cleveland Tans found yet another way to rip failure from the jaws of victory.
I have predicted that despite the rumors flying around Cleveland, even a loss to the historically bad Lions will not result in Owner Lerner firing coach Mangini. In my opinion, Lerner doesn't have the stones to do what needs to be done to save his team and what little credibility he has left with the fans. We will see. But regardless of feelings of fans or the owner, the 38-37 loss to the Lions was the most depressing loss yet.
This was the most “winable” game on the schedule. They had a 24-3 late in the 1st quarter. The O finally looked like it had at least some idea of what it was doing with QB Quinn completing deep throws to open receivers. But the O success wouldn't last.
In the second half, the Browns became the Tans again and both the O and the play calling crawled back into the shell of fear. It didn't take the Lions long to catch onto the Run Run Pass play calling. The 3rd down passes were rushed and inaccurate.
In previous articles I have laid out a plan I would follow but the question is what will happen. I have rubbed my crystal ball so hard it now no longer clear.
I believe that Lerner will hire someone with a little football gravitas to turn this dismal operation around. He has said that Mike Holmgren is his top choice to become President/GM. Mike has been quoted as “interested” in the opportunity. As usual I disagree completely with Lerner. He has had the draft under his direction before with poor results.
Later in his tenure in Green Bay he had considerable input to the draft. Part of the reason he left was the consecutive fruitless drafts that the Pack had in that time. In Seattle he had both the GM and Head Coach jobs. I have felt that no human can do both jobs in the NFL today. But I am just as convinced that Holmgren is not a guy that can draft well enough to close the talent gap between us and the rest of the division let alone the league elite.
Here are his 1st round picks for the Seahawks:
1999 R1 CH22 Chris McIntosh T Wisconsin—Mac was a can't miss run blocker that did. He started 10 game in his rookie season and 3 more in 01 but was out of the league after that season.
2000 R1 CH19 Shaun Alexander RB Alabama—Alexander was a star that burned out way too soon. After an MVP season he faded quickly and was out of the league early in the 08 season.
R1 CH22 Chris McIntosh T Wisconsin—Mac was a can't miss run blocker that did. He started 19 game in his rookie season and 3 more in 01 but was out of the league after that season.
2001 R1 CH9 Koren Robinson WR North Carolina State—Robinson developed nicely in 02 with 78 catches and had another 65 in 03. He would never reach 50 again in his career.
R1 17 Steve Hutchinson G Michigan—Hutch is one of the best Gs in the league but guards are usually 2nd or 3rd round picks. The Hawks lost him to free agency after the 05 season.
2002 R1 CH28 Jerramy Stevens TE Washington—Stevens is still in the league but had never developed into the weapon Holmgren though he would be. In 7 seasons through 2008 he had started only 32 games mostly as an injury replacement. He is at best a 2nd TE in a 2 TE set.
After the 2002 season, Holmgren was relieved of his GM duties. To be fair, he did have some notable picks in lower rounds but is this the kind of record as head draft guru that the Browns can depend on to turn the team around. I don't think so.
Are the Browns the Worst Team in the NFL?
Watching an ice cube melt is more exciting than watching the Browns' offense.
The fans deserve better than what at least a few of them suffered through last night. The D and the D coordinator deserve better too. FIRE THE O COORDINATOR WANT-TO-BE NOW!
Three things were made abundantly clear in the 16-0 loss to the Ravens last night.
Otto Graham could be QB and the team would still struggle to score. There is a right tackle that is a joke; the receivers couldn't catch pig flu if they were married to the pig that originated it; the running game won't work because the middle of the line can't get a push and the O coordinator who I will not give the honor of naming here is blind, deaf, and most assuredly dumb.
The defense is leaving its heart and soul on the field every game. To hold the Ravens with the 10th best O in the league to 3 points is outstanding. Remember, the 2 picks scored one TD and made the other automatic. Coach Ryan has made a group of Jet castoffs and a couple of stars from the previous administration into a cohesive competitive defense.
The players have bought into the Ryan program and are playing for him not for Mangenous.
When the Monday Night crew breakout films of Jon Chuckie Gruden playing college football, it will be a long time before they will accept a game in Cleveland again.
When Mangenous says “we've tried everything we could think of” to get the offense moving and NOTHING has worked, it is time to replace him and “your little dog (the offensive coordinator) too” with Ryan and anyone with an IQ above 50 on an interim basis. That would at least give the team a little hope that the owner is watching and cares about what is going on.
There are also a couple of FA WRs that would help. Does anyone have Marvin Harrison's cell number?
Then I stand by my outline of the changes that I would make (published here a couple of weeks ago) to at least give the fans something approaching decent to watch.
So what will happen? The Browns will do nothing this week and will lose next week to the Lions. I do not believe Lerner will fire Mangenous unless the Football Czar he hires does. They will get the 1st or 2nd pick in the draft and trade down a couple of times because those top spots are too expensive.
Mangini has compared the 09 Browns to the 2000 Patriots!
Anyone that needed proof of the lack of football knowledge of Mangenous got it yesterday when he told the Boston Globe that he sees "remarkable similarities" between the 2010 Browns and the 2000 Patriots. WHAT?????
“At one point in that second year, we were 1-3, but we didn’t change the approach, and then we went on a streak, he said. Eric evidently hasn't looked at the current standings. The Browns are 1-7 and lucky not to be 0-8. The 00 Pats had 2 NFL quality QBs including Tom Brady. We don't have one.
They had a great front office. Ours is vacant. Yes, we have a Belichick want-to-be but that is all he is. He doesn't have any concept of scouting talent based on the vets he had his punching bag GM sign like Bob “the turnstile” St. Clair. He doesn't have any concept on how to use the little talent he has. He drafted Hawaii DE David Veikune with the 52nd pick in the draft. A change from DE to OB is very hard. So what did Mangenous do? He tried to teach him not 1 but 4 different positions making the transition so hard that Veikune is so confused he is trying to figure out how to spell his last name.
Eric, you are an arrogant jerk that should never be within 1000 miles of an NFL team. You aren't smart enough to plan a 2 car funeral procession. You don't inspire the players you put them in position to fail not to succeed. You insult the fans and generate disgust with you and your “system.”
You don't understand anything about what the Browns' fans have been through since the team was stolen by Art Muddle. JUST SHUT UP AND TRY TO GET THE TEAM TURNED AROUND. We don't want to hear a word out of your mouth. We want to see the team become at least competitive on the field.
The Browns Will Not Lose This Week, Guaranteed!
The Browns are in transition. That might be news in some cities but not for the folks in Cleveland. We have seen the team in transition since 1999. One of the things my Dad taught me early on was never do business with a widow or idiot son. He never said anything about writing about a sports team owned by one or the other.
The latest episode of “As the Stomach Churns” was GM George Kokinis being frog-walked out of the building. GK had never been a GM before. He also had never been responsible for scouting or evaluating college talent. His background was strictly veteran player scouting. Mangenous said he felt the team could find quality players without GK. That would be good because based on the vets that GK and he brought in, they couldn't find water on a cruise ship.
Owner Randy Lerner said after a 5 turnover drubbing at the hands of the Bears that he was sick about what has happened so far this season. WELCOME TO THE TUMS BRIGADE! Fans of your team have been chomping Tums34 like gummy bears for years because Tums Extra Strength doesn't begin to stop the heart burn caused by the play of this team.
All Browns fans are wondering what comes next. Lerner indicated to a reporter that Coach Mangenous was likely to be the coach beyond the 2009 season. GREAT! That is just what the fans and players wanted to hear—NOT!
I have rubbed my crystal ball so hard that it now has a frosted look to it. Here is what MAY happen in the near future.
Lerner has said he is going to bring in a real football guy to oversee that side of the operation. The problem is that no self respecting guy with any reputation will want to risk it in this environment. So who does he think he is going to get? There is one name floating around that makes some sense for a couple of reasons—Bernie Kosar. Kosar is hanging around the team “finding out what everyone in the organization does.”
Lerner does not want to fire Mangenous. That is a money issue. He is reportedly paying off not only the previous administration contracts but also that of Coach Davis. He doesn't want to get writer cramp with all those checks.
Mangenous said he will not demote O coordinator Baboll. The latter was appointed by Mangenous without any play calling experience. His only experience has been as a QB coach. The QB coach Smith was the OC for the Saints for years but will not be given the keys to this offensive clunker now. But Baboll will take input from Smith.
There is a well documented dislike bordering on hatred of Kosar by Mangenous. What is the only thing worse than having a consultant that reports to the owner milling around? Having a boss you hate take all your power away and stop you from trading the second overall draft pick to the Jets for a bucket of used balls.
In my opinion, if Kosar is named GM or VP of football operations, Mangenous may quit. He will not take kindly to giving up his power. Kosar has a great knowledge of the game and his only agenda he has is what is best for the Browns.
Mangenous quiting would eliminate the problem and the need to pay off his contract. At this point, the logical choice for an interim head coach would be D coordinator Ryan. Ryan's D has played its heart out trying to stop the bleeding from self inflicted wounds caused by turnovers of the O. The team would welcome the change and rally around Ryan. Smith would be another possibility.
Next year—who knows. IF the drama unfolds like I have described, the team would get better immediately. I could easily see 3 or 4 wins between now and the end of the season. After a 1-7 first half of the season, a 3-5 or 4-4 close would be celebrated by the fans. The interim coach would likely be given a raise and maybe a contract extension.
That would be the best possible outcome. So of course it won't happen and somehow Lerner will let Mangenous destroy the rest of this season and 2010. Browns fans may be hoping the league does go on strike in 2011. Our nerves could use the rest.
Where do the Browns go from here?
I am not going to say anything about the “game” against the Pack except that it was the worst performance since the team has come back in 99.
Let's face it. The 2009 season is D E A D! I think that Mangini has decided that and is going for a high draft pick which he can trade to the Jets for a bucket of practice balls and a practice squad player. In most situations, that would not be a bad approach (except for the trade of course).
The Browns are in serious danger of losing the fan base. After all, they were crushed by the disintegration of the team under Belichick 1, then all but lost hope when the team was stolen by Art Muddle. The hopes for a new start were rewarded by the most inept series of management teams since the Know Nothing Party of political history. The team needs to play respectable ball ASAP to keep the interest in the franchise.
Immediate changes:
OL- The worst part of the team is the right side of the O line. I would put Steinbach at RT and Fraley at LG. I would let Womack and Hadnot fight it out for the RG. Mack has to be given a season or 2 to prove he is or is not the guy at C. That would stabilize the pass protection and give us some hope for running the ball.
QB In my humble opinion, we have seen enough of Anderson to know for sure he is not the QB of the future. I would start Quinn with the understanding that he has until the end of the year to prove he is the guy or I would look for another starter in the draft.
RB Lewis is no longer a starter and is too expensive for a short yardage back. The team needs to find out what they have in Jennings. I would also work Cribbs into the 3rd down back role only if they can't find anyone else. They also need to search the practice squads and free agency for a young RB to replace Davis. A couple of possibilities are FAs Chris Henry, Antonio Pittman, or Panther PS Javarris Williams.
WR Put the young WRs excluding Cribbs in and let them sink or swim. The team has to know if the draft choices can play. I would put Furry on D full time. The team has enough WRs to tryout. If some don't catch the ball, there are a number of young WRs available on practice squads and cut lists around the league.
DL DE Coleman is not a fit for the 3-4 but with all the other issues on the team, nothing should be done unless there is a young DE available on a PS or FA. NT Rubin is starting to develop nicely. There will be several DTs in the draft that can become DEs in the 3-4. Draft one and trade Coleman for a draft choice or other need.
LB The team needs a lot of help at LB. They have to play with what they have because there isn't much available elsewhere. They have numbers but there is a major question if they have enough talent or not. Try the young guys and see what they can do.
DB McDonald is a disaster. I would put Francies into that spot. I would make Furrey the nickel and let McD compete against the rest for the dime back spot.
Special Teams I would prefer that Cribbs stay on special teams full time.
Offense? We don't need no stinkin' Offense!
There is no question what is wrong with the Browns—NO O! Given the lack of ball control and bad field position that the O gives the D, the defense has played as well as their talent will allow. I like what Coach Ryan the D coordinator has done with the team. He does not have many quality athletes and two of them, LB Wimbley and NT Rogers had the flu. Wimbley didn't play but Rogers gave all he had to the team in the loss to the Steelers. The loss of LB Jackson to the IR is going to hurt. LB Bowens has played well. The DBs have to tackle better. CB McDonald has to play better or be replaced.
The only offense was provided as usual by Cribbs. Not only did he return a kick for a TD, he played well in the wildcat. He threw the pick that ended a nice drive but the team wouldn't have had the ball in the red zone without Cribbs runs to get it down there. So, why does the wildcat work and the regular O not work?
The Browns receivers should be immune from any illness. If they can't catch the football how could they catch the flu? Depending on who is counting, there have been nearly 20 dropped passes in the last 2 games. The Browns are very short of TEs. But Mangini cut a 08 4th round pick TE Rucker. That was particularly surprising given the fact that TE Heiden is coming back from an ACL and Mangini says he wants to run the ball using 2 TEs. Rucker was not much of a blocker but at least in college he could catch the ball. That seems to be in short supply in Cleveland this season.
Some of the drops have not been the problem of the receivers. QB Anderson has a great arm but the touch and accuracy of 100 lb sledge hammer. Anderson's mechanics have deteriorated due to the pressure he has been under. He also has no running game to take pressure off the pass. The play calling is predictable. Even so, there is nothing that justifies an NFL qb rating of 51.
Mangini wasted the preseason. He let both QBs split snaps and didn't play either in the final game. Then he started Quinn. 2 ½ games later, he changed his mind and now Quinn is a ghost that has disappeared despite the fact that every stadium in which Anderson plays has to call in the EPA Super fund to clean the stench of another stinker out after the game.
The right side of the O line has been a huge problem. RG Hadnot is not ready for full time play so Womack played most of the game sending C/G Fraley to the bench. The RT St. Clair is a disaster. His turnstile blocks will get Anderson a trip to Cleveland Clinic. Let's just hope he doesn't catch the staph infection bug there.
Now, Cleveland Hero Bernie Kosar has been hired as “consultant” reporting directly to the owner. That is a good thing. Bernie will keep the fans aware of what is going on. He and Mangini are going to struggle for power soon. To me, it indicates that Owner is not comfortable with Mangini. He also wanted a spokesman for the team since he doesn't want that job and Mangini is as talkative as an oak tree. Bernie has the three things that this team needs most—1. the respect of the fans and the players 2. a knowledge of the game that has been missing from the team and 3. the energy to become an active part of the management staff. Jim Brown has the respect of everyone and the knowledge of the game but is too involved in other things to devote the energy to the Browns.
Next week I will discuss what I would do to fix the Browns this season and for the long haul.
Ugly is as Ugly does!
Watching the Browns lose is punishment. Watching them get blown out is worse. Columbus Channel 10 chose to show the Bengals v the Ravens. It was an excellent choice. The Browns game at Buffalo was about as exciting as watching the grass grow. A former OSU President once called the 10-10 tie against Michigan “a great victory.” That statement came after the Buckeyes went 0-10 against that team up north. It was a ridiculous statement. I feel the same way about the Browns 6-3 win at Buffalo. Some called the OT lost last week against the Bengals a turning point for the team. Those same people are now calling the 6-3 win proof that the team has turned the corner. That remains to be seen.
But there were some positives that the team can build upon. The special teams were for the most part very special. Zastudil was nothing short of amazing with his punts. In some of the most difficult punting situations you can imagine he came within 1 kick of tying the all time record for the most punts inside the 20. However, it is not the ideal situation to have your punter be the MVP of the game.
The gunners on the punt team did a great job of getting down field to kill the punts deep in Bills' territory. That unit also recovered the muffed punt that allowed them to win the game.
Another positive was the running game. Lewis ran for 117 yards but it took 31 attempts and was only 3.77 per carry. The O line is starting to run block better. RG Fraley is doing well and even my usual target C Mack is improving. He is still too weak in the legs to get the kind of drive necessary to handle the AFC North NTs.
QB Anderson was brought in to give the team a spark. He completed 2 for 17 attempts for a total gross of 23 yards with an interception. That is a passer rating of 15. If you go 0-1 without a pick your passer rating is 39.6. That is similar to missing a chance to get 5 points on the SAT for spelling your name right because you forgot a letter. There were some drops but to quote the ESPN Radio commercial “Come on!” A passer rating of 15 is embarrassing. If the Mangini passing game is in effect long hand offs, there were a LOT of fumbles Sunday.
The D held the Bills to 3 points. The obvious defensive plan is to import the Buffalo wind to every game the team plays. It was the wind more than the D that held the scoring down. Only Rogers stood out although the new guy on the block OLB Trusnik was forced into action by an injury and did OK. OLB Wimbley got in on 11 tackles including his 4th sack of the season. He had only 4 all last year.
But a win is a win and the team at least gave a decent effort. A little more production on both sides of the ball will be required if the team is going to beat Pittsburgh next week.
I have to mention the fact that backup QB Quinn has his house up for sale. That is not a good sign. It has to be as clear as glass that Anderson is not the long term answer. I don't know if Quinn is either but I have seen St. Clair block and know for a fact that the Browns will need Quinn, and probably Ratliff before the season is over.
There is almost no trade value for Quinn right now. The fact that he was pulled along with a less than stellar 2 and a half games as the starter this year have depleted whatever trade value he might have had last off season. The only possibility to get better QB play this year is to keep him putting pressure on Anderson to perform.
Anderson tends to take too many chances and make some very questionable decisions. Quinn is a rookie. He has been holding a clip board for a couple of years but you can not get better at QB decision making watching from the sidelines. He needs live snaps in regular season games to get better. My experience tells me that you can not evaluate a pro QB in practice. The D line can't hit him and the speed of practice never approaches that of the real thing. This season is toast—Burned toast. Give him a real shot and this time don't trade away the top 8 draft choice.
The Browns in Week 4—Close but No Cigar
The Browns played the much improved Bengals close Sunday in Cleveland. For the first time this season, they did not look like dead men walking. They looked like they cared about winning and wanted to be there—except that is for WR Edwards. He looked like he wanted to be anywhere but Cleveland and got his wish yesterday. More on that later.
There is no question that Derek Anderson moved the ball better against Cincy than Quinn did in the previous 2 and a half games. But Cincy's D is not Minnesota nor is it Baltimore. It is also clear that the play calling is significantly different for Anderson than for Quinn.
Part of that difference is the arm strength advantage that DA has over Quinn. Anderson has that type of arm that makes coaches drool. But his decision making and accuracy makes D backs drool as well. Anderson reads coverages better than Quinn but that is a function of game experience rather than innate football instincts. But the brain trust of the Browns (and I use that phrase with all the sarcasm possible) decided that their strategy carefully crafted over the 8 months since the start of the off season was in error. So they changed field generals at half time in week 3 despite the fact that Mangini personally picked Quinn for that job.
Gee, for those of you that have been watching the news, this sounds slightly familiar. But Mangini is stuck with Anderson for the rest of the season or until St. Clair misses another block and gets him hurt. At that time, Quinn will come in to save the day and the season.
The D under Coach Ryan has played well but has been on the field way too long. They need the O to develop a running game which the team has not had since it was reborn in 99. The Bengals realized that the Browns would not beat them running and concentrated on the passing game.
For the Bengals this was a trap game. They beat the Steelers last week and face the division leading Ravens next week. The Browns caught them in between bookend games. They played down to the level of the Browns.
But give the team credit for their best game of the year so far. I believe that the team will be 0-8 at the bye and the best thing that the owner could do is replace Mangini with Ryan who by all accounts is respected and liked by all the players.
Edwards was traded to the Jets. The rumor is that no GM will deal with Mangini unless they get a steal except for New York. The Browns got a reasonably good WR in Chansi Stuckey. Stuckey is a possession receiver that needs to run much crisper routes to get open. He struggled with that in NY. The Browns also got a reserve LB that is a special teams player only and 2 draft choices that are reported to be a 3rd and a 5th. That certainly was not the 1st round pick they had sought before the draft but is probably what the WR (3rd pick overall in the 05 draft) turned pugilist is worth.
For those that haven't heard, after not catching a single pass Sunday, Edwards topped off his night in a club and hit the sponsor of the party. The Cleveland police and the NFL Commissioner have yet to determine if Edwards will be able to contribute to the Jets season. Of course if he drops as many passes as he did in Cleveland, he won't contribute much there either.
The Browns go to Buffalo this week. They had better win because it is about their last chance before the bye. They go to Pittsburgh the following week then play Green Bay at home before facing the Bears in Chicago on 11/1. If there are 0 wins, we could be saying BYE BYE to Mangini. That probably won't happen but for a L O N G suffering Browns fan, we can only hope. By the way does anyone know how Randy Lerner's new toy the Aston Villa soccer team is doing? But then who in Browns land really gives a damn.
The Browns in “WEAK” 3
I missed the first 5 minutes of the Browns game against the Ravens. I had to run to our Piggley Wiggly store to get more antacids. I bought 3 cases but ran out around the start of the 3rd quarter.
The game was terrible. The team has lost faith in the “Mangini way” and by changing QBs at half time he let everyone know that he has lost confidence in his own decision.
This is a situation that is going to get a lot worse and will not get better. The D has given all it has but there are just too many clicks on the team to make it work. There is the Quinn click, the Anderson click, the ex-Jet click, and the old Browns click.
Here is the problem in a nutshell. A real player can tell in the first 10 minutes of the first practice if a coach knows his stuff or not. Mangini should know his stuff but doesn't have a clue about how to build a team from a collection of parts. Everything he has done has divided the locker room. He has never had the responsibility of judging talent in the draft and clearly did not have a good draft. He is not someone that takes criticism well.
Wednesday he named Anderson the starter “for now.” Quinn never had a chance. The OC Brian Daboll is in his first year at that position. We have seen that before. Someone should tell the ownership that Cleveland is tired of being the training ground for newbies at their positions. The play selection with Quinn behind C was terrible. The run run pass methodology works only if you are getting reasonable yardage on the first two downs. Cleveland has voting rights at the corner of 3rd and Long St.
We know what Anderson can do. He will thrill the fans with an outstanding pass on one play then throw a pick the next. The good news for Quinn fans is that as soon as Anderson fails and ex Jet Brett Ratliff lose a couple of games each, Quinn will be back to mop up with the team sitting at 0 and 8 or 9.
The solution is to fire Mangini and put D Coordinator Rex Ryan in as interim HC. But that won't happen because Soccer Boy is too busy playing with his English toy. I wish I had better news but I don't see anything but a 1st or 2nd overall draft choice in the Browns' future. But don't too excited because Mangini will trade the 1st pick to the Jets for a bag of balls and a 1977 school bus so he can take the team to more unpaid service days.
The Browns lack of offense rests primarily on a defective O line
The entire league has noticed what I have been complaining about for weeks here and on my own site—the Browns O line is abysmal. DE/LB Elvis Dumervil showed RT St. Clair to be the statute I have been saying he is all along.
RG Floyd Womack went down with an injury during the game. Of course Fort Mangini is not leaking any details of his injury. Even when he was healthy, Womack was not a starting quality player. He started 9 games for the Seahawks in 06 then was benched in 07 before starting 14 games in 08 after the team lost their starter to free agency.
The one armed former C Hank Fraley replaced him. Fraley has a strap on his elbow due to a previous injury. Womack was not intended to be the starter. Originally Ryan Tucker who started part of the 08 season at RT was slated to start. He never recovered from injuries suffered last year.
Rex Hadnot had been signed as a UFA to back up Tucker who hasn't played a full season since 05. Hadnot did not survive Camp Mangini. Coach has not announced if or when he might be able to return. Rumors circulating around the team indicate that he may be back in a couple of weeks.
The next issue on the line is rookie 1st round pick C Kevin Mack. The day of the draft part of the justification for trading down three times was that the team had targeted Mack for their first round pick and could get him lower. That was half right. They were wrong to target Mack but were right that they could have gotten him lower—like in the 2nd round.
Mack struggled to block for the run in California. He was known as a finesse pass blocker as well. Finesse is a kind way of saying that he couldn't knock a 5th grader off his feet. Mack caused the first turnover by dribbling the ball back to Quinn in a shot gun formation. That happened inside the 15 and turned the ball over to Denver inside the 10.
The O line has been penalized a lot for false starts. What the media and announcers failed to notice is that when everyone moves but the snap doesn't come, the fault lies with the C. Mack is regularly a half count late on the snap. He is also very inconsistent on shotgun snaps. They float back to Quinn. If the O line was up to the job, that would not be as significant a problem. But giving the lack of time Quinn has to find a receiver and get rid of the ball, the delay is critical.
A large part of the running game's struggles are attributable to the O line as well. There just is very little push by the line. Way too often, the back is getting hit in the backfield. Even with a FB in the I formation the team can't seem to get much of a whole.
The passing game suffers from several issues. The O line is a major part of the problem. The line is not giving Quinn any time to find an open guy. This is causing Quinn to develop some very bad habits. He is nervous in the pocket and if his first look at his progression is not wide open, he is throwing to his safety valve. Good passing games require time to allow players to make moves to get open.
Quinn is also part of the problem but given his lack of pro experience, it is not surprising. A good NFL QB anticipates the receiver getting open and throws the ball before the target makes his final move. Quinn is not able to anticipate receivers getting open due to lack of reps with the first team. That is also Mangini's fault for not naming Quinn the starter sooner.
The receiving crew is not the most reliable either. WR Edwards had an outstanding game. He was targeted on 8 passes and caught 7 of them. That was the extent of the quality receiving efforts. Cribbs fumbled one catch and missed another that he should have caught. I am not surprised because he gets limited reps because he is also having to split time with the special teams.
The last major problem with the O is the inability to score TDs in the red zone. Part of that is execution. But part is also due to some very questionable play calls. For example, when the team recovered the fumbled kickoff they got the ball inside the Broncos 10. They ran the ball twice to Lewis and threw a poorly designed pair of pass routes that fell incomplete. Result—as usual no TD and the team had to settle for a field goal.
Overall the O is holding the team back. As I said more than a month ago, the Browns fans are in for a very long season. We can only hope that time together helps. If not, the D is going to spend a lot of time on the field.
Brown Fold in Second Half
The 09 Browns have one thing in common with the 08 Browns—Folding up in the 2nd half.
All we have heard from management is how totally different the 09 version of the Browns would be from that of 2008. Not so much.
On my site Frying Pan Sports I predicted that the game would be over by half time. I was wrong. It took the Vikes the first offensive and defensive series of the second half to put the game away. The Vikes moved the ball right down the field and scored the go ahead TD on their first possession. Then Brady Quinn and WR Edwards did not read the coverage the same way and the Vikes picked off the Quinn pass.
The key problem all last season was that the O was non-existent in the 2nd half of games and the D wore down quickly. What has changed? Not much. The 13-10 lead at halftime quickly become a significant deficit and another loss to a visitor to Cleveland.
The play calling was identical to the calls in 08 with the exception of a couple of less passes deep. The running game worked surprisingly well in the first half with Lewis and Davis. But the Williams boys at the DT positions for the Vikes put a quick end to that in the second half. By the time Davis went out with an injury, the game was already lost.
The right side of the O line is still useless. They were not able to give Quinn much protection even against a 4 man rush. They also were not able to open many running holes for the backs. The majority of running came off the left side.
However, a number of the illegal procedure calls were the fault of rookie C Mack not snapping the ball on the right count. I can't really blame him much for that because he had never seen anything as big and ugly as the Williams boys nose to nose with him in college. He is going to have to do better. In almost every game this year he will face better NTs in the league than he ever saw in college. He also needs to work on his shotgun snaps. They were inaccurate and had a measurable hang time. Given the lack of pass protection, the ball needs to get into the hands of Quinn as quickly as possible.
There was one bright spot. The Browns got some pressure against a really good O line. The down side for that is that they had to blitz to do it. The 4 man rush did little to make Farve move.
One final issue is the interception and several near picks. In my opinion, had Mangini named Quinn the starter after the first preseason game and given him all the reps with the first team, the chances are that he and Edwards would have read the coverage the same way on the pick. That would have kept the team in the game. On a number of other passes it was clear that the QB and his receivers were not timed up. Getting the passing game timed takes a lot of reps. The unwillingness to name a starter sooner cost Quinn the chance to get that timing down. It contributed greatly to the loss to the Vikes. That is the fault of the coach and his brain lock on fooling the Vikes by not naming the QB early.
Mangini is clearly happy with his O line.
Head Coach Eric Mangini is clearly comfy with his O line but I am still trying to figure out why. I wonder what he is looking at.
Exhibit 1—RT John St. Clair He has been the one man marketing program for personal injury lawyers from St. Louis to Chicago, to Miami and now here. He has never been able to handle a speed rusher faster than a 1978 Hugo. Not only did St. Clair make the team but he was installed as the starter from his signing. Uch!
Exhibit 2—The NFL Cuts at T that were available to the Browns.
Langston Walker has started 16 games for the last three years. He is not great but better than what we have.
Tony Pashos was cut for salary cap reasons by the Jags. He has started every game but 1 in the last 3 years and is a better than average pass blocker with decent feet. He is better than either of the above. He was just signed by SF.
Exhibit 3—Free agent Ts signed
Phil Trautwein URFA acquired on waivers from Carolina played at college ball at Florida. He has something in common with St. Clair. He too struggles with speed rushers.
Exhibit 4—C
The starting C (we think) is rookie Alex Mack. Mack got no push on running plays and allowed DTs to push him back into the QB all preseason. Even at Cal he struggled to get push on running plays against teams like Stanford and Washington. C was the worst spot on the O line and that includes RT! He just barely beat out last year C Hank Fraley who was playing in the preseason with 1 arm.
Exhibit 5—Veteran Cs signed to help None.
There is a basic rule in football and it doubly important in the AFC North. If you can't run the ball and can't stop the run, you can't win. The Browns have struggled to run the ball against all but the 3rd string guys that are now greeters at WalMart. A lot of that has to do with a total lack of push from the O line particularly in the middle. The D will be on the field a lot if the O can't move the chains.
This week they play the best running back in the league in Adrian Peterson who comes to town with the best line in the NFC. How is that trade down working for you now, Mangenis? Good luck guys. On Sunday you are going to need it.
And the winner in the Browns QB derby is...
Brady Quinn—I think. But of course we don't know yet. There may be an announcement about 5 minutes into the first game of the regular season against the Vikings.
Tomorrow in my Tuesday Morning QB column on Fryingpan Sports we will discuss the differences between the two QBs. I will say that it is time—in fact past time that Coach Mangini makes his decision public. The team needs to know who will be their leader on O.
The team did play a lot better in what is considered the “dress rehearsal” preseason game in the NFL. Tennessee came to town with the plan of having their first team working the first half and that was all. The Browns who blew the game open in the 3rd quarter kept their 1st group in for the most part through 3 quarters because they had more to evaluate than the Titans.
Quinn looked sharp against the Titans first team on his scoring drive. Again as was the case so many times last year the team ran out of downs in the red zone hand had to kick a short field goal. If the Browns O can't do better inside the 10, they will be kicking a lot of short FGs. You can not win regularly with field goals.
Anderson looked good too. He was in a very short time against the Titans' first group.
The Browns are in 3rd and long (7+) way to often. That killed them over the last few years. The problem is not on 3rd but on 1st and 2nd. When you only average 1 or 2 yards on 2 downs, the chances are 82% that you will end up punting. The team was averaging only a 25% 3rd down conversation rate this preseason until game 3. That is not going to maintain possessions and give the D a chance to catch their breath.
The Browns running game is poor to non-existent except against the 2nd or 3rd string of their opponents. RB Davis looked really good again but it was his 1st team line vs. the Titans 2nd and 3rd group D. Too often the Browns run on 2nd and long. When they get only 1 yard, they face 3rd and 8 or 9. There is a partial answer to the lack of a consistent ground game.
The Browns never were much of a screen play team but Mangini has added those plays to the game plan. That is going to be critical if the team struggles to run and pass protect. The screen can slow down the pass rush a lot. This can not only replace the running game it can get the RBs out in open where they can do damage.
The O line is still a problem. I hope the team can get a RT to replace St. Clair. He is the weakest link and is not getting better with practice.
It is hard to evaluate the D because their best player, NT Shaun Rogers, has played only 1 series so far. I am not sure if he is injured or just being rested. I hope for the team's sake it is the latter. Without him and S Brodney Pool, the team struggled to get off the field. That problem has been exacerbated by a lack of pass rush and the inability to stop the running game. In the AFC North, the other 3 teams are clearly run first. If the Browns can't stop the run, its going to be a L O N G season.
The D line is getting better. NTs C.J. Mosley and Ahtyba Rubin are both coming around. They are not quality substitutes for Rogers yet but they are improving with every game. Mosley is even providing some pass rush. E Corey Williams still doesn't fit the 3-4.
The linebackers seem to have more depth than we expected. Alex Hall looks good opposite Wimbley. Hall got the interception and took it in for a D touchdown. Kaluka Maiava, the rookie from USC, is working better in the Browns' zone. He knocked down a pass and is solid in special teams.
The DBs are showing better tackling than they did last year. That is a direct result of the Mangini camp. The one improvement by the new staff is that the training camp is more serious than it ever was under the previous group.
Special teams penalties still are killing the field position of the O. 2 long returns, one of 58 yards and one of more than 40 yards were called back by stupid penalties. That has to change.
OVERALL: I think we have a lot more to be cautiously semi-optimistic. The team has gotten better over the last 3 weeks. Not good enough to compete with Baltimore and Pittsburgh, but better. It may be able to beat Cincinnati for 3rd place in the division. Given the debacle last year, that would be an improvement.
That's what I think. Tell me what you think.